David Ferrer and Milos Raonic will contest their Cincinnati openers on Sunday. They are set for respective meetings with American wild cards Ryan Harrison and Jack Sock. Chris Skelton previews the action.
(3) David Ferrer vs. (WC) Ryan Harrison
For all of his fabled consistency, Ferrer has not produced the most consistent results at Masters 1000 tournaments in North America this year. Although he reached the final in Miami, and nearly won the title, Ferrer dropped his opening match at both Indian Wells and the Rogers Cup. That latter setback came against a qualifier, suggesting that the Spaniard needs to scrape some rust off his game. Ferrer had not played since Wimbledon as he recovered from an ankle injury, and he usually relies on a regular rhythm of tournaments.
The fast surface in Cincinnati may trouble the favorite, too. While he can play first-strike tennis if required, Ferrer can be vulnerable when he lacks the time to settle into a rally. Not for nothing has Wimbledon remained his least productive major. In fact, the world No. 4 struggled there two years ago against Harrison, his Tuesday opponent. The fiercely competitive youngster took Ferrer to a fifth set at Wimbledon before yielding in their only previous meeting. On another fast court, Harrison again might play Ferrer closer than the gap between their rankings suggests.
Beyond that five-setter at Wimbledon, the underdog brings other reasons for confidence to the task ahead. Harrison’s disappointing 2013 campaign took a turn for the better after the halfway point when he reached a semifinal in Atlanta. He showed more discipline there and in a Washington win over Lleyton Hewitt than he had earlier in the year. On Sunday, Harrison defeated a Top 40 opponent in Alexandr Dolgopolov in one of his most notable victories this year. That match not only will have boosted his spirits but will have given him the match practice in Cincinnati that Ferrer lacks. But Harrison never has defeated a Top 10 adversary, often failing to find belief against them.
Skelton pick: Ferrer in 2
Dimon pick: Ferrer in 3
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(12) Milos Raonic vs. (WC) Jack Sock
Another matchup of a Top 10 player against a rising American talent unfolds on the Grandstand. Of course, Raonic just reached the Top 10 for the first time this week after his surprise appearance in the Rogers Cup final. The best week of his career, achieved on home soil to boot, may have left the Canadian mentally and physically drained for Cincinnati. He also appeared to struggle with an arm injury as early as the third round there, an issue to monitor moving forward.
If Raonic looks to build on a massive breakthrough last week,Sock would just as soon put last week behind him—and most of the previous weeks preceding it. Nobody doubts the talent of this Nebraska native, whose serve-forehand combinations have crackled through the court at U.S. Opens past. Sock even won the mixed doubles title in New York two years ago, an event that put him on the tennis map with a flourish. This year, however, has proved even more arid for him than for Harrison. Sock has won just three ATP main-draw matches since February, retirements aside, and he has not yet benefited from his home-court advantage during the U.S. Open Series.
But Sock did benefit from his home-court advantage on the indoor hard courts of Memphis six months ago. There, he stunned Raonic in the most notable singles victory of his career to date. Weathering the tension of a tight three-setter, Sock cooled off an opponent still sizzling from a San Jose title defense the week before. A similar opportunity awaits here on another fast court suited to the staccato styles of both men. Sets and probably the match will hinge on just a handful of points and decisions, whether bold gambits or tactical blunders. Despite his visible promise, Sock remains a raw sharpshooter still learning how to compete week-in and week-out on the grind of the tour. Raonic stands much further ahead on the learning curve, even if each could compile comparable careers in the end.
Skelton pick: Raonic in 3
Dimon pick: Sock in 3
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The adrenalin rush of reaching the final in Montreal will have subsided: Raonic willl bow out early against Sock.
I’ll certainly be cheering for Harrison, but I think Ferrer will win in straight. As for Sock, he can defeat a tired, possibly over-confident Raonic.