A three-team panel makes its argument for three different champions at the upcoming U.S. Open.
Josh Meiseles (The Sixth Set): Novak Djokovic – The U.S. Open is Djokovic’s to lose. The 2011 champ enters with a huge chip on his shoulder following recent defeats to rivals Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon and in Montreal, respectively, and he will be hungry for revenge on his preferred surface. Djokovic is a different animal in best-of-five set matches on hard courts. His conditioning and endurance are unmatched in today’s game and his superhuman stamina gives him a significant edge when entrenched in a war of attrition. On the fast courts of New York, the Serb’s ability to transition so effortlessly from defense to offense has proven to be lethal for his opponents. The aspect of his hard-court game that is the most striking is his agility and traction on the surface. For Djokovic, rhythm and timing depend heavily on his balance and movement. When he is in full control, particularly on hard courts, he becomes machine. When his comfort level wanes, however, his confidence has the tendency to sail off with it. This is partially to blame for his rather passive play since winning in Melbourne and Dubai early in the year. The world No. 1 needs that spark to rediscover his ruthless 2011 self, and having enjoyed much success over the years in New York, the familiar hunting ground should re-energize him.
This is the perfect time for Djokovic to win a second U.S. Open title, with Nadal not having played consecutive hard court events, let alone three in a row, since March 2012, with Murray perhaps still on his post-Wimbledon high, and with Federer mired in the worst funk of his career. If there is one player to give Djokovic the stiffest challenge, it will be Del Potro, who won their battle in Indian Wells and pushed Djokovic to the brink at Wimbledon. Still, the early nod goes to Djokovic to hoist the trophy on September 16.
Ricky Dimon: Andy Murray – Murray lost early in Montreal and watched Djokovic and Nadal steal the spotlight from him with an epic semifinal of their own, but what transpired last week is no reason at all to write off Murray from the upcoming U.S. Open. He won the thing in 2012 and became a completely different player as a result, having finally captured a Grand Slam. Case in point: with new belief in himself, Murray won Wimbledon for the first time this summer amidst Texas-sized pressure. The world No. 2 has won two of the last three majors in which he has participated and he has reached the final of three in a row. Granted Murray skipped the French Open, where he basically would have had no chance, but two of four titles and three of four finals is about as good as it can get.
Federer may not be a factor, Djokovic is not in peak form at the moment, and while Nadal is playing incredible tennis right now, the jury still has to be out for him on hard courts. Just as it’s almost impossible to beat the eight-time Roland Garros champion in three out of five on clay, it is similarly difficult–albeit not quite to the same extent–to topple Djokovic and Murray in best-of-five on hard courts. Against what should be his two biggest threats in Flushing Meadows, Murray is a respectable 4-4 in his last eight battles with Djokovic–including straight-setters in the Scot’s favor at the Olympics and Wimbledon. Murray has won five of his last eight hard-court meetings with Nadal.
Steen Kirby (Tennis East Coast): Rafael Nadal – A healthy Nadal has to be at least the co-favorite to win the USO this year (without the benefit of seeing a draw), as–quite simply–he is undefeated on hard courts this year (won both Indian Wells and Montreal). He was downright dominant at times in Montreal, including a victory over Djokovic in a match that went to a third-set tiebreaker but was still controlled by Nadal more often than not. The Spaniard is moving well, holding serve consistently, and the forehand is as RPM-rich as ever. Nadal these days will always have questions with his knee, especially with hard-court tennis in a five-set format at the U.S. Open, but if he can avoid long matches and hold his serve as well as he did at both Indian Wells and Montreal, he should win in straights with frequency–at least in the early rounds. Also, his loss in the first round of Wimbledon may actually have preserved his physical shape for the rest of the year.
Djokovic has not been nearly as good this year as he was in, say, 2011. Murray has had himself a great 2013 campaign but still seems less consistent for some reason than the other current Big 3 members. Furthermore, he has the pressure of defending the U.S. Open title (while Nadal has no points whatsoever on the line), and Nadal has a positive head-to-head against him should they meet. Mentioning other outside possibilities, mainly Del Potro and Federer…Delpo has had some issues staying healthy and although Federer could catch fire, recent signs do not point to that happening. In fact, depending on the draw, he could be out before week two.
even though chr18 can be a real pain in the a** but I agree it was fun to have him ! lol..
so glad to hear about luckystar , thanks augustina ! i hope she appears here..is there any other r rafa fan from TT who has not showed up here?
“I watched a few matches of Indian Wells and tried to analyze what I really did well there and try to copy a little bit and practice with that goal.” Nadal
now that is the best thing about rafa…he learns from his experiences, no matter if they were good or bad ones….now observe what you did so well at montreal and bring your best at USO… I agree that bringing out the ultra aggressive mode against djoker at the open would have been a good surprise but I think its all bene going very well so far…rafa knows exactly what to work on now..his aggressive ROS worried djo quite a lot..
I am interested in seeing what djo comes up with to counter the aggression from rafa…may be he’l try to be even more aggressive to prevent rafa from dictating play…I give the edge to rafa and beating djo on a best of 5 match on hard court is all crap as far as rafa is concerned, if rafa is doing really well, he can beat djo anywhere
That comment from Rafa is interesting. Brad Gilbert said during one of Rafa’s matches at Montreal, that he does watch films of his matches. That’s how he learns and improves.
It’s one thing to study and learn but it’s another thing to actually go out there and do it. So Rafa didn’t just learn from his past matches, he was able to implement the changes to his game. It all came together against Djoker so well in that semifinal.
I am glad that lucky knows about this site. I hope she comes here to join us. I miss the great conversations we had about all things tennis.
As far as some of the others, one thing I don’t want is those who came on to personally attack people. Those who had an agenda. The trolls. We don’t need that. It’s been nice just chatting about the tennis without all the other garbage we had to deal with in the last months on TT. Chr18 was someone who was beyond annoying at times, but at least he didn’t get so ugly and personal. He never joined in with the others who went after some of us.
I wonder if zare knows about this site. He and Danica were decent Djoker fans. Real fans, too.
I think it’s way too soon to say anything. As much happy as I’m with the way Rafa is playing I think we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. I’m mean, Djoker beat Rafa in Rafa’s backyard (aka MC) and got really confident and then, in a best-of-five match in Rafa’s livingroom (aka RG), he just was not able to do the same. So, it really was a big victory in Montreal for Rafa and it will definitly help him, but at the USO it will be a hole different history…I’m expecting Rafa to prove me wrong, as he have done so well lately 🙂 But I just feel like he could win it all as well as lose in the first round, in both USO and Cincy.
Remember 2013 is Rafa’s transition year from injury, he had no business winning all he has, never mind being in the MC final to face Djokovic in the first place. The MC result was not a shock, Rafa was (and is still) in transition from injury. If a healthy Djokovic (yes, he was, never mind that “ankle” injury story) couldn’t win MC this year, when was he going to? RG was Rafa’s first Slam post injury, a best of 5, and Djokovic could not capitalise? He should be embarrassed. Instead, a rusty Rafa (who had been out for 2 months) takes it to him in his own back-yard and beats him. What’s Djokovic’s excuse? Rafa has one for the MC loss, he is in transition.
Rafa has nothing left to prove, he has already surpassed all reasonable expectations. This means he will be playing more freely, without pressure. Djokovic is already heaping pressure on himself talking about being motivated to “do” history by winning Cincy. Well, he has been chasing history for the past 2 years at RG, we know how that turned out.
As usual, I fear the lower ranked players in the early rounds than the later rounds where Rafa is concerned precisely because the lower ranked players have nothing to lose, will take risks (which may or may not pay off) and swing freely. Once Rafa gets to the quarters, he gets to the final.
Vamos!!
ritb,
Are you talking about Cincy or the USO?
I have the semis tickets for the USO. Just hope Rafa makes it :D. If its Djoko Rafa, every penny would be well spent 😀
@nny 6:58 am;
I am talking about both Cincy and USOpen. For Cincy, Benjamin Becker and then Dimitrov are going to swing freely knowing what Rafa’s scalp will do for their careers. If Rafa emplys his new aggressive strategy returning serve, he will roll over Fed without much trouble. Muzza will be a test but I don’t think Muzza is bothered about winning Cincy, he is pacing himself for a successful defence of USOpen, so I do not expect him to put up a big fight. Rafa’s mindset is different, he needs matches, so the more matches he plays before USOpen the better prepared he will be. And when he gets to the finals, he will want to send a message by winning and even better if the opponent is Djokovic because a defeat so soon after Montreal, on his favourite surface would be devastating psychologically for Djokovic. I doubt he would recover even for the Australian Open.
Oh RITB..easy easy..Let Rafa win his earlier rounds..and I def dont think anyone can overlook Fed here..rem he is 5 time champion here and has dismantled both Novak and Muray here
I would be concerned about Rafa’s chances against Fed at Cincy if Fed had not embarked on that disastrous new racket experiment post Wimby. He deprived himself of valuable time to build momentum. Would have been even better if he had played North American HC leading up to Cincy instead of clay. As for his past successes at Cincy, all,I have to say is: Wimbledon 2013.
So, yeah, where Fed is concerned, I am at peace……
But RITB, he is playing with his original racquet in Cincy..wonder what made him switch back..didnt he say at start of tourney he will stick to larger prototype ..in 2-3 days he reversed his decision?
@ritb 7:17 am,
Thanks for your response. I do agree that Becker and Dimitrov will come out blasting to try to get the big win. I don’t know a thing about Becker. I know that Rafa played him once about five years ago. I don’t know if he’s a big server or what. I know all about Dimitrov.
So you are more worried about Rafa’s first two matches than Fed. You are not convinced that this is the new, improved version of Fed? 🙂
I would think that Murray will want to get some decent match play here. I think he wants a good result. It’s nice to go into the USO with some momentum.
As for the USO, I am always nervous in the early rounds. Those are the most dangerous. But Rafa will remember what happened at Wimbledon and will be motivated by that early exit. If he gets to the second week, I say watch out!
After winning the AO in 2008 I recall Djokovic declaring he saw no reason why he should not reach No.1 by the end of that year! Then later in 2009 he admitted he had paid too much attention to his ranking at the expense of improving his game.
I was interested in the conversation the other day about the fact that his game has not really evolved over the years. The thing that improved was his mental stamina and with it his confidence.
If the confidence is shaken then his potency on the court suffers. And like Federer, when he is gunning for wins that will put him in the record books, he often seems to stumble e.g. The Olympics and the Grand Slam. I’m sure even Federer would acknowledge he got lucky when Rafa exited RG or he would still be waiting for his Career Slam.
For both of them it must be aggravating beyond measure the way Rafa came out of the blocks with all guns blazing! By rights he should still be trying to play himself back into the game – not picking up the silverware left right and centre 🙂
So now Djokovic is saying his matches with Rafa are always decided by a few points and that a few points separate the winner. Funny, I did not get the impression that is what he thought when he said
1. He knows how to beat Rafa pre their MC match;
2. When he goes into a match against Rafa he goes in to win not to play. This was pre RG semi.
So, you will excuse me if I do not buy into Mr. Djokovic’s latest statement post his Montreal loss to Rafa. This is a blatant attempt to diminish Rafa’ win. Rafa beat him good and proper and Djokovic is smarting. He just does not have the humility to admit this. Now if it is Rafa saying what Djokovic recently said, it is believable because Rafa never boasts before matches. Even if he has a commanding lead in the H2H, you never hear him diminish Djokovic.
I hope Rafa continues beating him from here on, we need sanity in Dodge………
Vamos Rafa!
ritb,
The fact is that since Rafa’s loss to Djoker in the 2012 AO, he has beaten him four out of the five times they have met. Two of those wins were at RG. Now he’s got a win over him on hard court. That is significant because Djoker won their last five matches on hard court. This is an important win for Rafa and should be a wakeup call for Djoker.
Sean Randall wrote on tennis-x that maybe Djoker should forget about the dancing and concentrate more on practicing! Great comment!
Djoker is trying to diminish Rafa’s win against him in Montreal. So his comments indicate some denial. That’s fine with me. If Djoker doesn’t address his own issues, then he is going to pay the price.
http://www.tennischannel.com/news/NewsDetails.aspx?newsid=12866
great article 😉
Thanks@ rafaelo. Btw, are you still afraid of Rafa playing Djokovic or are you calm after Montreal?
I more than calm 😀 I was so sure he was going to pay a fantastic match with out caring about the result against djoker that I didn’t even bother to wake up and watch it 😀 the match was at 4.30 am 😀
Thanks for posting the Tennis Channel piece. Fascinating analysis of all the matches and with very perceptive comments about all the players. In particular Fink nails exactly why Rafa has been able to storm back this season.
I forgot to add an “am” in my past comment :D:D
Not wanting to be picky, but why is the logo still about congratulating Andy for Wimbledon? A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then.
good point. will change it soon.
Ha! You beat me to it, just! I was about to send a post asking the same question. Shoudn’t it be “congrats Rafa” now?
I think Ricky wants to leave it on for the next 77 years. Lol
Thanks for the link, rafaelo. I like this bit best:
“After the recuperative period following Wimbledon, Nadal has moved back into the forefront of the game. Considering the excellent work he did in Canada—coupled with his exploits at Indian Wells earlier in the year—he has no reason to doubt himself on hard courts. In fact, he has never looked better on that surface than he did last week, particularly down the stretch. His propensity to alter his game to suit the surface and the situation probably surpasses any of his rivals. He wins more matches with the strength of his mind and the scope of his willpower than any player I have ever witnessed over the last fifty years. The game’s most arresting player is no one other than Rafael Nadal. When he is in thick of things and playing his brand of tennis, the game is immeasurably enriched.”
hmmmm so its gonna be dimi vs rafa 😉 what are the odds?? ritb nny vamosrafa sanju? obviously I will be supporting my boy dimi. and I will not predict the results this time 😉
Hahaha, sana! You’re a coward, you know your boy will get bounced, if Rafa gets there! Your boy, Dimi, has taken care of his business, let’s see if mine, Rafa, can take care of his tonight!
Vamos!
hahahah 😀 look at what rafa has done to us! we aren’t even confident about first rounds 😀
Rafa is not losing to Dimi! If he could beat Jerzy having played only one match, then he will beat Dimi. It could be a tough match if Dimi is on his game. He gave Rafa trouble at MC earlier this year. He’s got the game and this is hard courts, Rafa is looking really good. He will know what to do.
@ritb I m not coward.. but I dont want to feel negative so we will see .. but if dimi lost I will be 🙁
The only positive thing which prevents me of being negative is that he has beaten djoker.. so he has got the game and I know he can beat anyone so I m positive 🙂
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has withdrewn from USO due to his knee injury.
[Google Translate]
—Jo: “Today I have to take care of me and make sure I can play a hundred percent. The thinking is simple, the doctors told me that I had at least two months for my tendon is partially healed and five months to be completely healed. Two months, it happens stack at the U.S. Open. It would be stupid to go there knowing full well that I have no chance because I’m not prepared enough.
Whatever happened to me helps me a lot. I know exactly what I have. I know exactly how long it will be before I put on top. This is an injury that I’ve had. Whenever I hurt myself, I’m back, I often come back again even stronger.
I scheduled my return to Metz (from 16 to 22 September). I still have one month, it will come soon enough, but I am optimistic! “—
http://www.jowiltsonga.fr/blog/me-soigner-pour-etre-a-100
At least the writer cut Milos some slack on his (non)net call vs. Delpo.
Hi everybody, so glad I found a blog with intelligent commenting, finally. Happy to join in.
what say now that Cincy is done with? Rafa all the way
Welcome Lotti!
The comments here are monitored which makes this blog pleasant.
Nice to have monitored comments, indeed.
I hope Rafa beats Djokovic also in best out of 5 in hard court so people can stop saying that he’s better than Rafa in HC.
draw discussion – https://tenngrand.com/2013/08/22/u-s-open-draw-discussion/