For the first time since back-to-back showdowns at Masters 1000 events in Indian Wells and Miami, Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner is finally back on the tennis schedule.
It’s already among the best rivalries in the sport and projects to be at the very top of that list for years and years into the future. The head-to-head series is all tied up at three wins apiece (Alcaraz leads it 4-3 if you include a 2019 Challenger matchup) after they split the two meetings this spring. Alcaraz prevailed 7-6(4), 6-3 in Indian Wells before Sinner scored a 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 upset in Miami. Their most memorable encounter, of course, came in the 2022 U.S. Open quarterfinals–with the Spaniard triumphing 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-7(0), 7-5, 6-3 on the way to his first Grand Slam title.
The next chapter of this rivalry will be written in the China Open semifinals on Tuesday.
It has been an extremely routine week so far for Alcaraz, who has advanced with straight-set beatdowns of Yannick Hanfmann, Lorenzo Musetti, and Casper Ruud. Sinner’s passage to the last four was more complicated, as he needed three sets against both Dan Evans (first round) and Grigor Dimitrov (quarters) in addition to a 6-2, 6-0 victory over Yoshihito Nishioka. The Italian was somewhat under the weather against Dimitrov, too, and obviously any and all analysis of Tuesday’s match goes out the window if he is less than 100 percent.
Alcaraz is still very much in the race with Novak Djokovic for the year-end No. 1 ranking, so every point matters–even at a 500-point tournament. Still, the top spot will probably come down to Masters 1000 events in Shanghai and Paris plus the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin. Alcaraz looks motivated in Beijing, but he has bigger fish to fry over the course of the next two months. He also hasn’t been great since winning Wimbledon, with losses to Tommy Paul (Toronto), Daniil Medvedev (U.S. Open), and Djokovic (Cincinnati) after playing nothing but three-set matches en route to the Cincinnati final.
Sinner has generally played well during the fall swing in the early stages of his career and 2023 is looking like no exception. Even though the world No. 7 won their most recent matchup in Miami, he still could have a chip on his shoulder from that 2022 U.S. Open result and he has a good chance to get more revenge on Alcaraz in Beijing.
Pick: Sinner in 3
who ya got?
Alcaraz
ALCARAZ !!!
Watched quite a lot of the match. Sinner played well but Alcaraz was very erratic. He was spraying errors with his fh.
I couldn’t watch the USO but am starting to wonder if players are figuring out how to play him. Ie Med beating him convincingly and the lopsided second set with Sinner today.