Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev will be squaring off for the 17th time in their careers and for the fifth time this season when they collide in the China Open semifinals on Tuesday.
Medvedev leads the head-to-head series 9-7, including 3-1 in 2023. The Russian prevailed in Indian Wells (7-5 in the third set), Monte-Carlo (7-6 in the third set), and Rome (in straight sets) before Zverev turned the tide with a 6-4, 5-7, 6-4 victory in Cincinnati. They have faced each other only once on the Asian swing, when Medvedev cruised 6-4, 6-1 in the 2019 Shanghai title match.
Firmly back on track following early losses in Toronto and Cincinnati this summer, Medvedev finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic at the U.S. Open after upsetting Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals. The world No. 3, who has already clinched a spot in the Nitto ATP Finals, booked his place in the Beijing semis by taking out Tommy Paul, Alex de Minaur, and Ugo Humbert–dropping just one set to Humbert in the process.
Zverev looks poised to join Medvedev, Djokovic, and Alcaraz in Turin. The 10th-ranked German is currently seventh in the 2023 race and would climb to fifth if he lifts the trophy on Wednesday. So far in Beijing he has defeated Diego Schwartzman, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Nicolas Jarry all in three sets.
As those results indicate, Zverev has played a lot of tennis this week and he was already coming off a title in Chengdu. The 26-year-old has to be at least a little bit fatigued, which certainly isn’t ideal when an opponent like Medvedev is on the other side of the net. Medvedev has been his typically rock-solid self in Beijing, too, so free points for Zverev are going to be few and far between.
This matchup always seems to be competitive, but the No. 2 seed should have an edge on Tuesday.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
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