Beijing R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Pouille, Del Potro vs. Cuevas

Rafael Nadal will kick off his Beijing campaign when he takes the court against Lucas Pouille on Tuesday. A jam-packed schedule also features Juan Martin Del Potro, who will be hoping to build on a successful U.S. Open effort.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Lucas Pouille

It will be a rematch of a 2016 U.S. Open fourth-round thriller when Nadal and Pouille square off in round one of the Beijing Open on Tuesday. Last summer, Pouille pulled off of a stunning 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(6) upset on his way to the quarterfinals of that Grand Slam. The overall head-to-head series is tied up at one victory apiece, as Nadal prevailed 6-2, 6-1 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo two years ago.

Although Pouille should be on the rise at 23 years old, this is not the same player who took down Nadal at the U.S. Open. The 23rd-ranked Frenchman benefited from a favorable draw in New York to make a return trip to the last 16, but he is dreadful 0-6 in his last six matches outside of New York dating back to the Wimbledon second round. Nadal, on the other hand, is an amazing 56-9 this season with a pair of major titles. Well-rested having played only in the Laver Cup since his U.S. Open triumph, the top-ranked Spaniard should have no trouble extending Pouille’s woes.

Pick: Nadal in 2

[polldaddy poll=9842883]

Pablo Cuevas vs. (WC) Juan Martin Del Potro

Del Potro and Cuevas will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Tuesday. Their only previous encounter came six years ago on the red clay of Estoril, where Del Potro got the job done 6-2, 7-6(6). The 29-year-old Argentine has endured an off-and-on relationship with tennis since that time, and for once he appears to be getting through a full season in decent health. Del Potro owns a 23-12 record for his 2017 campaign and he made a recent run to the U.S. Open semifinals, upsetting Dominic Thiem and Roger Federer along the way.

Cuevas is a modest 18-16 this year and in danger of being unseeded for the 2018 Australian Open, currently on the brink at No. 32 in the rankings. The Uruguayan has been especially hopeless of late, with an 0-6 record in his last six matches dating back to the French Open. There is no reason to think this will be anything other than a straight-set beatdown in Del Potro’s favor.

Pick: Del Potro in 2

[polldaddy poll=9842885]

17 Comments on Beijing R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Pouille, Del Potro vs. Cuevas

  1. [URL=http://www.imagebam.com/image/38b049616224873][IMG]http://thumbs.imagebam.com/50/b9/1a/38b049616224873.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

    • I don’t think it should be surprising that Rafa’s match vs. Pouille was so close… Beijing is supposed to be a faster hard court, which is not Rafa’s strong suit. Also, even though it was 2015, Pouille not only beat Rafa on a hard court, but also at a major. I expected this match to go exactly how it did- 3 tight sets with Rafa prevailing in the end. I think this win will give Rafa further confidence that he can continue to tough out wins even when he’s not playing his best.

      Also, I’m pretty sure that unless they close the roof for rain, Beijing is not an indoor tournament… Am I wrong about that? At least last time I checked the ATP site it said Beijing is outdoor hardcourt.

  2. It was last year that Rafa lost to Poille in a 5th set tb at the USO. Beijing is “outdoor”, but maybe with a permanent roof and open sides. I don’t think it’s so much that indoors is horrible for Rafa as that he’s better outdoors than most others in adjusting to the ball. Indoors does help big servers. Rafa’s fall troubles have often been due to being a bit – or a lot! – beat up this time of year. Also it’s not so much court speed as the low bounce that takes away some of his top spin advantage. Add the increased average height on the ATP tour…

    I think this match was just that Rafa had a slow start and Poille was playing “lights out” hits and misses tennis. Rafa looked to be playing well in the 3rd set, which is all I saw of the match. Holding serve easily and threatening Poille’s.

  3. Main Worry is isner with his huge serve and confidence he got in lever cup. He will try to play same way. hope rafa prevails. if roof is closed,it will be better for Isner

  4. Rafa as usual these days, played poorly when he had BP chances – that FH that he overhit when he was up 40-0 in Pouille’s service game was atrocious; and the next point he was returning Pouille’s second serve by hitting right back at him at the centre of the court that allowed Pouille to redirect it for a winner.

    I don’t understand why Rafa did so poorly when having BPs, it’s as if he’s too cautious or simply didn’t know what to do! He’s fortunate that Pouille faltered when having MPs, allowing Rafa to turn the match around.

    Rafa should play like he did in the third set right from the beginning of the match; i.e. step inside the court, moved forward to the net. He was 10/10 at the net if I’m not wrong, so why not play more inside the court rather than playing from so far back that allowed his opponent, in this case Pouille, to move forward to control the court? It’s not like Rafa was poor when at the net.

    I hope he does better in his next match(es); Isner is another one who tends to rush forward, so should they meet, Rafa has to think of ways to play more inside the court, not giving Isner too much court to work with.

    • He will. I still think he find a way to win each match in this tournament using his brilliant problem-solving skills, like he did at the US Open. The top players like Rafa don’t get bogged down when they lose a set- he stays composed and figures out what he needs to do to turn things around. It will obviously not be too easy if he faces Zverev or Kyrgios, but I’m confident he will come out on top. I agree with you that he should play more aggressively and come to the net more when playing on the quicker, lower-bouncing surfaces. I’ve always been puzzled why he doesn’t play that way more on these courts, especially right from the start of the match. Maybe he is confident enough in his bread and butter game that he thinks he doesn’t need to play more aggressively?

      • I didn’t even realize that Rafa played his first match already. It’s hard with the time difference to watch the Asian swing. It’s good to know that Rafa got the win, even if he had to work for it. Maybe he just needed to get the feel of the court and get his feet under him.

        Not having seen the match, I can’t speak to how he played. But a win is a win. He’s got a tough draw. Isner just got his first win against Rafa at the Laver Cup. That will give him confidence and also the court conditions.

        Hopefully Rafa will feel more confident and play aggressively in his next match.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.