The stars are coming out for the continuation of the Asian swing, with a combined five top-10 players taking the court this week in Beijing and Tokyo. That list includes Rafael Nadal, Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, Marin Cilic, and Dominic Thiem. Nadal is the obvious favorite to bag the Beijing title, while the Tokyo trophy may be a bit more up for grabs.
China Open
Where: Beijing, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,028,280
Points: 500
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
2016 champion: Andy Murray (not playing)
Draw analysis: Nadal erased any demons he had from his 2016 U.S. Open loss to Lucas Pouille in a fifth-set tiebreaker when he triumphed last month in New York for his 16th career Grand Slam title. Now the Spaniard finally has a chance to avenge that loss in the form of a head-to-head showdown, as he will face Pouille in the Beijing first round. The top half of the draw is not an easy one, as John Isner is a potential quarterfinal opponent for Nadal and the other quarter consists of Dimitrov, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Juan Martin Del Potro.
Nick Kyrgios captured the Tokyo title last year, but in 2017 he is taking his talents to Beijing. In a much more favorable section of the bracket than the top half, Kyrgios opens with Nikoloz Basilashvili and could face Pablo Carreno Busta in the quarterfinals. The second-seeded Zverev, meanwhile, was fatigued the whole way this past week in Shenzhen and got bounced by Damir Dzumhur in the quarters. Zverev may have a difficult opener on his hands with Kyle Edmund, while Dimitrov has to go up against the red-hot Dzumhur right off the bat.
First-round upset alert: Jared Donaldson over (7) Tomas Berdych. Berdych benefited from a favorable draw and a hobbled Djokovic to reach the Wimbledon semifinals. Other than that, however, the Czech has mostly underwhelmed in 2017. Donaldson, on the other hand, has earned 20 of his 31 career ATP-level match victories this season. The up-and-coming American just reached the Chengdu quarterfinals, so his confidence remains high.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Pablo Carreno Busta, Roberto Bautista Agut, Paolo Lorenzi, Damir Dzumhur, Andrey Rublev, Jared Donaldson
Cold: Nick Kyrgios, Karen Khachanov, Pablo Cuevas, Jack Sock, Fernando Verdasco
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over John Isner, Juan Martin Del Potro over Roberto Bautista Agut, Pablo Carreno Busta over Nick Kyrgios, and Alexander Zverev over Jared Donaldson
Semifinals: Nadal over Del Potro and Zverev over Carreno Busta
Final: Nadal over Zverev
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Rakuten Japan Open
Where: Tokyo, Japan
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,563,795
Points: 500
Top seed: Marin Cilic
2016 champion: Nick Kyrgios (not playing)
Draw analysis: Tokyo is already without its biggest star, as Kei Nishikori is injured. A couple of other top players in this year’s field may not last too long, either. Thiem continues to struggle on anything other than clay and he is coming off an immediate exit in Chengdu as the No. 1 seed there (lost right away to Guido Pella). Third-seeded Milos Raonic has not played since Montreal and has only four matches under his belt since Wimbledon, so Viktor Troicki or Benoit Paire could give him some trouble in the early rounds.
With Raonic an obvious question mark, Cilic and Kevin Anderson are the favorites in the top half of the draw. And they are in the same quarter, too, on a collision course for the last eight. Cilic has owned the head-to-head series (6-1), but Anderson recently made it all the way to the U.S. Open final. In the bottom half, Goffin, Feliciano Lopez, U.S. Open quarterfinalist Sam Querrey, U.S. Open quarterfinalist Diego Schwartzman, and Shenzhen runner-up Alexandr Dolgopolov could be factors. Thiem, meanwhile, will kick off his campaign—and perhaps end it, as well—against Steve Johnson.
First-round upset alert: Feliciano Lopez over (4) David Goffin. It is safe to say that Goffin has recovered from his summer knee issues, because he just battled to the Shenzhen title this past week. Of course, that may not help the Belgian’s chances in Tokyo—especially because Goffin’s last two matches required a combined six sets and almost four and a half hours. A well-rested Lopez, meanwhile, is no stranger to success on the Asian swing.
Hot: Kevin Anderson, Sam Querrey, Diego Schwartzman
Cold: Milos Raonic, Gilles Simon
Quarterfinal predictions: Kevin Anderson over Marin Cilic, Yuichi Sugita over Adrian Mannarino, Feliciano Lopez over Taro Daniel, and Diego Schwartzman over Dominic Thiem
Semifinals: Anderson over Sugita and Schwartzman over Lopez
Final: Anderson over Schwartzman
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