Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem are on a collision course for the Barcelona semifinals, a matchup that can become a reality on Friday. Nadal is continuing his campaign against Jan-Lennard Struff, while Thiem faces Guido Pella.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
Which Nadal will show up for quarterfinal action at the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Thursday afternoon: the dominant King of Clay, the one who got upset by Fabio Fognini in Monte-Carlo and struggled with Leonardo Mayer on Wednesday, or something in between (such as the once who defeated David Ferrer 6-3, 6-3 in the third round)? The second-ranked Spaniard may not be in peak form following a month off due to a knee injury, but he at least managed to reach the Monte-Carlo semis and played well enough against Ferrer on Thursday.
Up next for Nadal is a first-ever meeting with Struff, who is playing without question the best tennis of his career right now. The 51st-ranked German reached the Auckland semifinals and the Indian Wells fourth round, and he has made this Barcelona run at the expense of Hugo Dellien, David Goffin, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Struff has the prototypical game that can trouble Nadal (6’5”, huge forehand, solid two-handed backhand), but he would obviously prefer to contest this matchup on something other than clay.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8-10 games
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(3) Dominic Thiem vs. Guido Pella
Thiem and Pella will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Friday. The head-to-head series is all tied up at two wins apiece, including 1-1 on clay. Pella once led 2-0 following victories in 2016 (Rio de Janeiro) and 2017 (Chengdu), but Thiem responded by getting the job done twice last season (6-4, 6-4, 6-4 at the Australian Open and 7-6(7), 6-4 in Buenos Aires).
On the heels of his Roland Garros runner-up performance in 2018 to go along with plenty of other impressive results, Thiem was expected to tear up the dirt this season while perhaps underwhelming on hard courts. So far that has not exactly been the case. The fifth-ranked Austrian struggled on the Golden Swing, won the Indian Wells title from basically out of nowhere, and then lost to Dusan Lajovic in the Monte-Carlo third round. Thiem appears to be back in fine form with straight-set victories this week over Diego Schwartzman and Jaume Munar. Pella punched his ticket to the last eight by beating Joao Sousa, Karen Khachanov, and Benoit Paire. The 28th-ranked Argentine may be running on fumes in the aftermath of a Monte-Carlo quarterfinal run, so Thiem should advance.
Pick: Thiem in 2
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