Barcelona R3 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ferrer

In the penultimate tournament of his career, David Ferrer will get what might be his last shot at fellow Spaniard Rafael Nadal.

The two good friends and familiar foes will be facing each other for the 32nd time in their careers when they meet again in round three of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Thursday afternoon. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 25-6, which is not that terrible of a record for Ferrer relative to some other hopeless opponents. However, only two of Ferrer’s victories come on clay–including just one since their first-ever matchup at the 2004 Stuttgart event. Since Ferrer prevailed at the 2014 Monte-Carlo Masters, Nadal has reeled off four wins in a row.

Even on dirt, Nadal by no means looks dominant the moment. The world No. 2 missed a month after Indian Wells due to a knee issue and he returned last week in Monte-Carlo only to fall at the hands of eventual champion Fabio Fognini in the semifinals. Nadal also struggled on Wednesday in Barcelona, where he kicked off his campaign by overcoming Leonardo Mayer 6-7(7), 6-4, 6-2.

Ferrer, who is retiring at next month’s Madrid Masters, has trounced Mischa Zverev and Lucas Pouille by identical 6-3, 6-1 scorelines. It has not come out of nowhere for the 37-year-old, either as he is actually enjoying somewhat resurgent form with a 7-4 record this season. Ferrer has not lost his opening match at any of five tournaments.

Playing all-around superior tennis and also moving better than he did during lackluster 2017 and 2018 seasons that convinced him to call it quits, Ferrer is certainly going to make Nadal work hard in this one. But the top seed started to find his game in the third set against Mayer and he should only improve with a match under his belt.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8-10 games

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11 Comments on Barcelona R3 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ferrer

    • You called it, Scoot! 🙂 Well, it was closer than it looks from the scoreline. Some excellent play from both but Rafa just looked comfortable today. The familiarity effect?

      So much to admire in the Little Beast’s game. Does he ever miss a ROS? He’s still really speedy too and great depth on the groundies. But Rafa got him with power and variety.

      Daveed never won a slam but he is a great player and has had a great career. He’s both loved and respected in the locker room. I don’t think anyone has ever had a bad word to say about him. He will be missed.

      Best of Luck in Madrid, Daveed!

  1. Good call by Scoot. I thought Rafa would need three sets to beat Ferrer, having watched how they played in their respective matches earlier on.

    Rafa was hitting with depth and power in this match and both played well all through the match, with their usual cat and mouse game, exchanges at the net and drop shot-ing each other.

    Ferrer is still so quick around the court even at age 37, it looks like he’s getting close to his best level of yesteryear! It’s a pity that he’s going to retire when he’s still playing good quality tennis.

    Back to Rafa, what a big improvement from his previous match! He’s almost back to his usual self, I think without the windy conditions, Rafa could hit with more depth and he even painted the lines a few times. He’s usually good even in windy conditions (watched his Barcelona final against Tsitsipas last year, played in windy conditions with rain stop/start; no issue with Rafa and he beat Tsitsipas comfortably, despite the wind and rain).

    I think with doubts in his head, he just couldn’t think clearly out there and so was poor in making adjustments in windy conditions (he usually handled the wind quite well, making small adjustments in his footwork). The way he’s playing, I dont think it’s any injury concern, more a confidence issue which I feel this Ferrer match would help him, going forward.

    He seemed rather pleased (and shall I say relieved too) that he has finally found his game. Next up is Struff (and surprisingly they have not played each other before); Struff is playing very well – big serve, big FH – and willing to come forward to the net to finish points, even S&V. He’s hitting with so much power, and playing points very quickly and Tsitsipas just couldn’t wrestle control of the points and was made to play at Struff’s pace. I do notice that Tsitsipas just couldn’t handle quick pace Attack – against Struff, against Shapo, FAA and Medvedev, he just couldn’t control the points and to make them play at his own pace; that’s something Tsitsipas must learn to overcome and figure out a way to change that.

    Rafa has to disrupt Struff’s rhythm, don’t give him the quick pace that he likes, makes him hesitate and returns his bombs and makes him feel uncomfortable out there. Hopefully the wind stays away!

  2. Obviously a big improvement from Rafa in this match, which was quite high quality in general. Makes me wonder if the wind was a larger factor in the last two matches than I had thought. Ferrer playing a very different brand of tennis than in the past; makes me wonder what his career would have been like had he played like this during his career.

    • I think playing on clay primarily has made most Spanish players seem like they’re grinders (with a few exceptions : Moya, Feli, Verdasco).

      They are in fact better than that but clay tends to reward long rallies, patience and a defence/offence game better than other styles.

      Ferrer started off as a ‘grinder’ as he didn’t have big weapons to begin with; he relied on his foot speed, his stamina and his never give up attitude to excel. After his injuries and when age started catching up with him, he like many others, started playing a more aggressive game and moving inside the court more often to shorten points.

      We can see that after years of playing, he’s very good in his court craft and knows when to play what shots. It’s obvious he works hard to improve his various skills to make up for not having big weapons.

      Ferrer is not bad too on the HCs, I think if he started off not on clay, perhaps he could play his new found game style right from the start. Imo, its just like Rafa, who started off as an aggressive player, had he not started off on clay, perhaps his coach would have concentrated on Rafa’s serve, and allowed him to continue with his more aggressive/offensive game and mindset instead of letting Rafa make do with a not so great serve and thus had to grind more often.

      We could see how good a more offensive Rafa was, in 2010,2013, 2017 and 2018 (2019 AO too). Likewise for Ferrer, when he played well, Fed needed to go the distance to beat him too (like at Cincy one year, where that’s the court that Fed owned).

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