It has been almost all chalk in the top quarter of the Australian Open draw, where top seed Carlos Alcaraz runs into Tommy Paul on Sunday. A can’t-miss matchup in the fourth round pits Alex de Minaur against Alexander Bublik.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (19) Tommy Paul
Alcaraz coasted through the first week of the Australian Open, not required to hit top gear at any point. The world No. 1 dismissed Adam Walton 6-3, 7-6(2), 6-2, Yannick Hanfmann 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-2, and Corentin Moutet 6-2, 6-4, 6-1. Although Alcaraz played well against Moutet, he also gave back a double-break in the second set before righting the ship.
The Spaniard’s bid for a first title at Melbourne Park continues with a fourth-round showdown against Paul on Sunday. This marks their eighth meeting and also their eighth on a big stage — either in a Grand Slam, Masters 1000 event, or the Olympics. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 5-2, including 2-0 at majors (2024 Wimbledon, 2025 French Open). This was one of tennis’ best rivalries in 2022 and 2023, but their recent encounters have mostly been one-way traffic in Alcaraz’s favor. Although Paul has not yet dropped a set Down Under, it’s hard to see the 20th-ranked American putting a serious scare into Alcaraz.
Pick: Alcaraz in 4
(10) Alexander Bublik vs. (6) Alex de Minaur
De Minaur and Bublik will be squaring off for the sixth in their careers on Sunday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-2 in De Minaur’s favor, but Bublik won both of their 2025 encounters — 2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 at Roland Garros and 6-7(5), 6-4, 7-5 in the Paris Masters quarterfinals.
The new and improved version of Bublik was on display in both of those matchups. It appears to be on the scene in 2026, too, as the 10th-ranked Kazakh is off to a 7-0 start with a title in Hong Kong followed by Aussie Open victories over Jenson Brooksby, Marton Fucsovics, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry — all in straight sets. De Minaur is also rolling. The sixth-ranked Australian secured his spot in the second week by beating Mackenzie McDonald, Hamad Medjedovic, and Frances Tiafoe while dropping just one set to Medjedovic in a tiebreaker. With both guys in outstanding form, this should be one of the best third-round matches along with Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien. Over the course of five sets in front of what will be a rowdy crowd, De Minaur’s counter-punching may be just enough to withstand Bublik’s firepower.
Pick: De Minaur in 5
WWW?
Demon in five
But depends on the conditions, day or night . Hot , helps the serve, and at night, might be an even better crowd support for Demon
And Alcaraz in three
De Minaur in 5, Alcaraz in 3
Demon vs Bublik could be THE best match in the 4th round….and probably THE most entertaining….Demon in 4.