Australian Open final preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Sinner

For the first time since 2005 (Marat Safin vs. Lleyton Hewitt), the Australian Open men’s singles final is without any member of the Big 3. There is guaranteed to be a first-time Aussie Open champion for the first time since 2014 (Stan Wawrinka).

That being said, nothing is either unfamiliar or surprising about Sunday’s title match at Melbourne Park. Daniil Medvedev has already been to the final of this tournament twice in his career and Jannik Sinner has been the hottest player in tennis dating back to last fall. It’s a matchup that we have seen many times before, too–one that emerged as one of 2023’s most compelling ATP rivalries.

Following a pair of monumental wins on Friday, Medvedev and Sinner will be squaring off for the 10th time on Sunday night. The head-to-head series stands at 6-3 in Medvedev’s favor, but that hardly tells the real story because the tide turned significantly during the second half of 2023. After the Russian took their first six encounters (including finals in Rotterdam and Miami, both last season), Sinner won three in a row this past fall. The Italian prevailed 7-6(2), 7-6(2) in Beijing, 7-6(7), 4-6, 6-3 in Vienna, and 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-1 at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Those scorelines aren’t shameful at all for Medvedev considering how well Sinner was playing at the time. The 22-year-old’s scorching-hot finish to 2023 included victories over Novak Djokovic in both Turin and the Davis Cup Finals to go along with his titles in Beijing and Vienna. Sinner upset Djokovic again on Friday, taking down the 10-time champion 6-1, 6-2, 6-7(6), 6-3. The world No. 4 preceded that result by beating Botic van de Zandschulp, Jesper de Jong, Sebastian Baez, Karen Khachanov, and Andrey Rublev all in straight sets.

Whereas Sinner dropped just one set en route to the championship match, Medvedev took the scenic route. The third-ranked Russian came back from two sets down twice, first against Emil Ruusuvuori–in a second-round contest that ended at 3:39 in the morning–and then against Alexander Zverev in the semis (5-7, 3-6, 7-6(4), 7-6(5), 6-3). Medvedev also defeated Terence Atmane, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Nuno Borges, and Hubert Hurkacz (another five-setter).

Although the 27-year-old is well-versed in the art of being the tour’s marathon man, even by his standards this has been a rough fortnight for him from a physical perspective. Medvedev would probably have the edge on Sunday only in a relatively short match, and Sinner is playing far too well to be put away in swift fashion. Moreover, in this matchup it is Sinner who plays offense and Medvedev who plays defense. As usual, the No. 3 seed will be racking up big numbers on the “kilometers run” stat sheet.

Sinner has been the best player in the sport over the last several months. He has been by far the best in Melbourne. Even though this is his first slam final, it just feels like it’s his time. But it won’t be easy against an opponent who is a major champion (2021 U.S. Open) and now a six-time major finalist.

Pick: Sinner in 5