Expert picks are back for the Australian Open final on Sunday, when a first-time champion at Melbourne Park will be crowned. It’s two-time finalist Daniil Medvedev facing a red-hot Jannik Sinner. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(4) Jannik Sinner vs. (3) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: Sinner is a sizable favorite. After all, he was absolutely on fire at the end of last season and has remained as such early in 2024. Whereas Sinner has bulldozed his way through the Aussie draw, Medvedev has played a trio of five-setters–including in both the quarterfinals (vs. Hubert Hurkacz) and semis (won from two sets down against Alexander Zverev). The Italian feels like the most deserving champion, especially after ousting world No. 1 Novak Djokovic on Friday. It’s his time. That being said, I don’t think it’s going to be easy. Although Medvedev lost all three of their encounters this past fall, he was competitive every time and he still leads the overall head-to-head series 6-3. The Russian may run out of gas late, but this should be a great match pretty much the whole way. Sinner in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-2, 6-3.
Cheryl: There will be a new Australian Open champion on Sunday. Whether we also get a brand new slam winner will largely depend on whether Medvedev, who won the U.S. Open in 2021, can recover from his trio of five-set matches over the fortnight and 20 or so hours on the court. The Russian has battled his way back from two sets down against both Emil Ruusuvuori and again on Friday vs. Zverev. Of course, there’s no guarantee that even if Medvedev were fresh as a spring daisy, he would be able to defeat Sinner. The Italian is officially the man to beat on tour right now, with a bona fide win over Djokovic in Melbourne to prove it (when nobody else could do so for the past six years). Sure Djokovic played one of the worst matches of his professional career, but Sinner was clever enough to let him get on with the business of beating himself. And then there’s the Sinner-Medvedev head-to-head, which is a bit complicated. Medvedev holds a 6-3 edge, but the three that Sinner has won are the most recent three. Sinner was my pre-tournament pick to win the title, so I’m sticking with it. Sinner in 4: 6-4, 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-2.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Somehow, Sinner and Medvedev will meet for the sixth time in less than one year–and every time except once in a final Although the Russian took their initial six meetings, he has not won since Miami last March. Sinner has corrected course, winning the last three. A large credit here needs to go to coach Darren Cahill for mapping out the strategy that has been effective enough to flip this intriguing head-to-head series. That being said, four of the last eight sets between the two have been tiebreakers–with the Italian winning three. Medvedev will be appearing in his sixth major final and third in Australia. This valuable experience will most definitely count for quite a bit when they meet yet again. Ironically, this will be their first meeting at a major. Sinner played a complete match in eliminating Djokovic in the semifinals, while Medvedev simply stayed the course and eventually made inroads against Zverev beginning in the third set to ultimately win in five. Just as Zverev appeared to peak against Alcaraz in his quarterfinal win, I expect a bit of a letdown from Sinner in the final–mentally as well as with execution on the court. Medvedev may feel like he is playing with house money after being a set away from the exit for the third time in the tournament. Not even a 3:39 am match finish time earlier in the fortnight halted his progress. A combination of several major final appearances from Medvedev as well as a large ask of Sinner to replicate his semifinal form leads to the 2021 U.S. Open champion winning his second major. Medvedev in 5: 7-6(4), 6-7(7), 6-4, 3-6, 7-5.
Come on Meddy! Really needs some free points on serve.
A quality final; it doesn’t have the theatrics we’re used to with Djokovic, but we couldn’t have asked for more in terms of a competitive major final.
Yeah, I quite agree!! And no 7 min bathroom breaks 🤣🤣🤣🤣 hope all of that is behind us now!!
yep
Wow!! If Meddy loses here again, how will he going to recover from this? While at the same time I’ll be very happy for Sinner!!
Just horrible for Meddy…😪
gonna be tough to recover from
Feel gutted watching this..
AO is to Meddy like what it is to Rafa, so close but yet so far after multiple finals!!
Can”t remember the last time I’ve watched a GS match and feel a little torn!
Med so civilised in defeat! Really hope he wins a major this year…
Yeah, perhaps Wimby or USO!
Med should take solace from Andy and Rafa who have made multiple finals and lost some close ones! He can turn it around!
However, just happy Novak didn’t win!! Tehehe!!!
USO best chance! He is not so great on grass…
will have a good chance at USO. Not at the others.
But I’m happy at least Sinner backed up the win against Novak. He does deserve this after so many close ones especially against Alcaraz at the USO!! Congratulations to Sinner, well deserved!!
So does this spell the changing of the guard? 😀
Too soon to say Mona!! Novak won 3 slams and the wtf last year. One bad tournament doesn’t necessarily signify a big change for him.
Huge break through for Sinner! Good for tennis!
I think Medvedev accepted defeat fair and square. Sinner overcame adversity, delivered his best and is the deserved winner.
2022 was a different story. Nadal had no business winning that final.
What? Rafa won the final fair and square!! What is different about Rafa”s win compared to Sinner”s? Unless ure suggesting medvedev sold the match!!!! 🙄
I don’t see medvedev recovering from this,ever. This is just terrible. He had the match in his hands after being 2 sets up and yet again, he falls apart. It was never this bad for Nadal here or anywhere so let’s not compare.Nadal was injuries mainly. Nadal has never been 2 sets up in a final and lose TWICE. Medvedev has done it twice in d same final and it’s not like sinner played unbelievable. Painful to watch.
Congrats to Sinner. Atleast he deserves it for trashing Djokovic.
He didn’t fall apart at all; his opponent worked his way into the match and delivered the highest quality and had a fitness advantage.
I think you dramatizing things a bit too much. Medvedev is quite relaxed and takes it as it comes. He is happy winning a few grand slams. He doesn’t need to win 20.
Agree to Disagree. When he lost to rafa he was all civilized and ok with it but he disappeared throughout that year till US open last year where he lost woefully to Djokovic. He has never been the same since that loss to rafa and this one has made it worse.
If you think med is all happy and joyful inside after losing this, you are being delusional. And Sinner did not play anything special, medvedev’s level dropped and he allowed Sinner to get back into the match. Let’s be real Sinner did not do anything outstanding. Fitness is not an excuse bc med was fit throughout d match.
PS. Rafa had every business to win that final against med in 2022 aus open since medvedev mental strength is deplorable and Rafa is a mental giant with a never give up attitude. If it was Alcaraz that was 2 sets up, if you think he will lose to Sinner after that, you’re not being realistic.
Anyway, the best thing about this tournament is that Sinner trashed Djoko in his own backyard and that was such a pleasure to watch. YSo he deserves this win based on that alone.
Rafa was up against Roger, was serving to go up 4:2 in the final and lost! But yes, a lot of it was down to injury but this no doubt has been Rafa”s most unlucky slam!!
But he was never leading 2 sets to 0 up and lose twice. Twice.
he’ll be fine in time for the next 3 slams. This wasn’t as bad as his 2022 collapse.
It was worse. First time, you can say oops my mistake but 2nd time in the same final two years later. It’s becoming a pattern.
No it certainly wasn’t, but Med also had an issue with fitness when he played Rafa as well. He needs to work on his efficiency bcoz he has a tendency to allow matches to get prolonged particularly at a GS!!
Felt sad about Meddy, having said that delighted for Sinner, he beat Djokovic, so seems fitting he won the title, great final.. .
agreed on both points
Yeah, but I think Novak”s age is going to start to show this year! Sinner exposed that! He is not as fast anymore and for him to be able to keep up with the likes of Alcaraz, Zverev, Med and Sinner will take its toll. I really can’t c Novak winning 3 slams this year!! Sinner winning here may inspire the others to finally show up! I can’t even c Rafa winning FO this year either! They”er just too old now!!
Yes I think Rafa is going to struggle at nearly 38!!
Struggle? We will be lucky to see Nadal play any majors or masters this year
3 this year? Lol. He will be lucky to win another 1 or 2 during the remainder of his career.
I like Daniil”s temperament in his speech, I hope it’s how he really feels inside………..the top 3 has had many heartbreaks……..imagine Roger serving 40:15 and losing it all………he should just take it in stride, it happens to the best of them!
Congrats to Sinner! Feel sorry for Medvedev, but that’s part of the sport, there’s no guarantee the one leading will be the one winning the match in the end. Meddy ran out of steam it seems.
@ Guest, although I feel you amy be bit harsh about Rafa and Novak”s prospects, I can’t c how I can disagree. However, how many times have we written off the big 3 and they come back to give up the middle finger, especially Rafa! So I will reserve my judgement about how many slams they may win, I just feel it will become excruciatingly difficult for them going forward! Like it or not, retirement is in the cards!
Why is my name in here Mona? Is it a misprint?
Lol, yes, I meant to write “may” 🤪
Sinner seems a sweet and pleasant young guy. I like Meddy, he’s a smart tactical player and shows good sportsmanship even when he loses the match. I hope he wins a AO some day.
This avuncular sociable NK is such a change from his on court persona…
@Monalisa you are 💯 right about the prize money the men have to play max 5 sets while the women 3 and the revenue men tennis generate is far higher than the women etc.
I feel bad for Meddy this lose must hurt a lot, 3 Aussie finals 3 loses what a heartbreak but it would make him stronger and better if he approaches this loses with the right attitude, next time he plays J. Sinner he is not going to lose I guarantee that.
I was glad Sinner won this final. He deserved it after playing that awesome match against Novak. I know they were both spent after three sets. Where that second “wind” comes from, I’ll never know! Tennis is a brutal sport. It was an exciting match. Sinner is a real likable kid. I love to hear him talk. Congrats to him!
Of course I am 100% right!!! I believe in fairness, meaning equal work for equal pay! The women’s matches draw a crowd mainly in the latter stages so they generate revenue there, but how is it that it’s ok for the men to play 5 “grueling” sets even multiple times and the women get to play three sets barely extending into a final set tiebreak and they get awarded the same prize money as the men?! It’s just preposterous!!!! Don’t understand y the male tennis players stood by and allowed that nonsense!! What, they were afraid of being cancelled?! They should have just demanded that the women play five sets, end of!!!! It just really irritates me, Sabalenka hardly broke a sweat on court yet Medvedev could hardly breathe in the end and he is handed same prize money?!! How is that fair?!! No one can possibly ever convince me!!! I can’t think of any other sport with this foolish concept!!!
Sorry, not Meddy. I meant Sinner! But what’s even worse, Medvedev get the same prize money as the runner up on the women’s side and she only won 5 games!!!!!! She was better off not showing up!! Choopz!!!
Agree with Amy, NK is quite funny, and knowledgeable as a commontator, maybe he’s grown up
Or maybe not when you lecture the public who the GOAT is when you’ve only lived through one generation of tennis.
Yep, and using kindergarten logic such as that player has more slams so they must be better than previous #1s. Nick’s problem has always been his ego.
This isn’t Elizabeth!!
Most of us know who it is who keeps impersonating people who post here as well as inventing persona. He can be posting as many as 5 or 6 people in a single thread.
It really would be nice if Ricky were to shut this down once and for all
He will now use several of his identities to attack me for saying this.
some strange results at the AO this year.
Rybakina out in the 2nd round, Zverev losing a 2 set lead against Medvedev, and Med doing the same against Sinner.
Congrats to Sinner! Here he comes!
Commiserations to Maddy. Do hope he gets another go.
He will.
Its almost normal now to lose a Slam match from two sets up even for top players.
Meddy is andy Murray v2 ..Andy was 3 out of 11..in those 11, 5 were at ao , 3 wimby ,2 uso, 1 rg..he never won at ao n rg
Meddy is already 1 out of 6..3 ao n 0 success yet…
Good thing is meddy may have shot at 2 more slams going by Andy Murray’s stats 🙂
Wow, that is really depressing when u put it that way………..wonder if Andy even knows that!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣