Expert picks are back for the Australian Open final on Sunday, when a first-time champion at Melbourne Park will be crowned. It’s two-time finalist Daniil Medvedev facing a red-hot Jannik Sinner. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(4) Jannik Sinner vs. (3) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: Sinner is a sizable favorite. After all, he was absolutely on fire at the end of last season and has remained as such early in 2024. Whereas Sinner has bulldozed his way through the Aussie draw, Medvedev has played a trio of five-setters–including in both the quarterfinals (vs. Hubert Hurkacz) and semis (won from two sets down against Alexander Zverev). The Italian feels like the most deserving champion, especially after ousting world No. 1 Novak Djokovic on Friday. It’s his time. That being said, I don’t think it’s going to be easy. Although Medvedev lost all three of their encounters this past fall, he was competitive every time and he still leads the overall head-to-head series 6-3. The Russian may run out of gas late, but this should be a great match pretty much the whole way. Sinner in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-2, 6-3.
Cheryl: There will be a new Australian Open champion on Sunday. Whether we also get a brand new slam winner will largely depend on whether Medvedev, who won the U.S. Open in 2021, can recover from his trio of five-set matches over the fortnight and 20 or so hours on the court. The Russian has battled his way back from two sets down against both Emil Ruusuvuori and again on Friday vs. Zverev. Of course, there’s no guarantee that even if Medvedev were fresh as a spring daisy, he would be able to defeat Sinner. The Italian is officially the man to beat on tour right now, with a bona fide win over Djokovic in Melbourne to prove it (when nobody else could do so for the past six years). Sure Djokovic played one of the worst matches of his professional career, but Sinner was clever enough to let him get on with the business of beating himself. And then there’s the Sinner-Medvedev head-to-head, which is a bit complicated. Medvedev holds a 6-3 edge, but the three that Sinner has won are the most recent three. Sinner was my pre-tournament pick to win the title, so I’m sticking with it. Sinner in 4: 6-4, 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-2.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Somehow, Sinner and Medvedev will meet for the sixth time in less than one year–and every time except once in a final Although the Russian took their initial six meetings, he has not won since Miami last March. Sinner has corrected course, winning the last three. A large credit here needs to go to coach Darren Cahill for mapping out the strategy that has been effective enough to flip this intriguing head-to-head series. That being said, four of the last eight sets between the two have been tiebreakers–with the Italian winning three. Medvedev will be appearing in his sixth major final and third in Australia. This valuable experience will most definitely count for quite a bit when they meet yet again. Ironically, this will be their first meeting at a major. Sinner played a complete match in eliminating Djokovic in the semifinals, while Medvedev simply stayed the course and eventually made inroads against Zverev beginning in the third set to ultimately win in five. Just as Zverev appeared to peak against Alcaraz in his quarterfinal win, I expect a bit of a letdown from Sinner in the final–mentally as well as with execution on the court. Medvedev may feel like he is playing with house money after being a set away from the exit for the third time in the tournament. Not even a 3:39 am match finish time earlier in the fortnight halted his progress. A combination of several major final appearances from Medvedev as well as a large ask of Sinner to replicate his semifinal form leads to the 2021 U.S. Open champion winning his second major. Medvedev in 5: 7-6(4), 6-7(7), 6-4, 3-6, 7-5.
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Congrats to Sinner! Feel sorry for Medvedev, but that’s part of the sport, there’s no guarantee the one leading will be the one winning the match in the end. Meddy ran out of steam it seems.
@ Guest, although I feel you amy be bit harsh about Rafa and Novak”s prospects, I can’t c how I can disagree. However, how many times have we written off the big 3 and they come back to give up the middle finger, especially Rafa! So I will reserve my judgement about how many slams they may win, I just feel it will become excruciatingly difficult for them going forward! Like it or not, retirement is in the cards!
Why is my name in here Mona? Is it a misprint?
Lol, yes, I meant to write “may” 🤪
Sinner seems a sweet and pleasant young guy. I like Meddy, he’s a smart tactical player and shows good sportsmanship even when he loses the match. I hope he wins a AO some day.
This avuncular sociable NK is such a change from his on court persona…
@Monalisa you are 💯 right about the prize money the men have to play max 5 sets while the women 3 and the revenue men tennis generate is far higher than the women etc.
I feel bad for Meddy this lose must hurt a lot, 3 Aussie finals 3 loses what a heartbreak but it would make him stronger and better if he approaches this loses with the right attitude, next time he plays J. Sinner he is not going to lose I guarantee that.
I was glad Sinner won this final. He deserved it after playing that awesome match against Novak. I know they were both spent after three sets. Where that second “wind” comes from, I’ll never know! Tennis is a brutal sport. It was an exciting match. Sinner is a real likable kid. I love to hear him talk. Congrats to him!
Of course I am 100% right!!! I believe in fairness, meaning equal work for equal pay! The women’s matches draw a crowd mainly in the latter stages so they generate revenue there, but how is it that it’s ok for the men to play 5 “grueling” sets even multiple times and the women get to play three sets barely extending into a final set tiebreak and they get awarded the same prize money as the men?! It’s just preposterous!!!! Don’t understand y the male tennis players stood by and allowed that nonsense!! What, they were afraid of being cancelled?! They should have just demanded that the women play five sets, end of!!!! It just really irritates me, Sabalenka hardly broke a sweat on court yet Medvedev could hardly breathe in the end and he is handed same prize money?!! How is that fair?!! No one can possibly ever convince me!!! I can’t think of any other sport with this foolish concept!!!
Sorry, not Meddy. I meant Sinner! But what’s even worse, Medvedev get the same prize money as the runner up on the women’s side and she only won 5 games!!!!!! She was better off not showing up!! Choopz!!!
Agree with Amy, NK is quite funny, and knowledgeable as a commontator, maybe he’s grown up
Or maybe not when you lecture the public who the GOAT is when you’ve only lived through one generation of tennis.
Yep, and using kindergarten logic such as that player has more slams so they must be better than previous #1s. Nick’s problem has always been his ego.
This isn’t Elizabeth!!
Most of us know who it is who keeps impersonating people who post here as well as inventing persona. He can be posting as many as 5 or 6 people in a single thread.
It really would be nice if Ricky were to shut this down once and for all
He will now use several of his identities to attack me for saying this.
some strange results at the AO this year.
Rybakina out in the 2nd round, Zverev losing a 2 set lead against Medvedev, and Med doing the same against Sinner.
Congrats to Sinner! Here he comes!
Commiserations to Maddy. Do hope he gets another go.
He will.
Its almost normal now to lose a Slam match from two sets up even for top players.
Meddy is andy Murray v2 ..Andy was 3 out of 11..in those 11, 5 were at ao , 3 wimby ,2 uso, 1 rg..he never won at ao n rg
Meddy is already 1 out of 6..3 ao n 0 success yet…
Good thing is meddy may have shot at 2 more slams going by Andy Murray’s stats 🙂
Wow, that is really depressing when u put it that way………..wonder if Andy even knows that!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣