Australian Open final preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Nadal

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Good things tend to happen when Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal take the court on opposite sides of the net.

And that is exactly what can be expected when they do so once again on Sunday night amidst the highest-possible stakes in the final of the Australian Open.

Quite memorably, they have been on a similar stage once before. The 2019 U.S. Open final between Nadal and Medvedev is without question one of the best matches of the last decade, with the Spaniard triumphing 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4 after four hours and 51 minutes. Two encounters since have also been high-quality thrillers. Nadal prevailed 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(4) at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals despite trailing 5-1 in the third set, while Medvedev got the best of this matchup for the first time in his career by winning 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-3 in the semis of the 2020 Nitto ATP Finals. Overall, Nadal leads the head-to-head series 3-1–including 2-0 on outdoor hard courts.

That certainly doesn’t make Medvedev the underdog in this particular match. In fact, he has been the overall tournament favorite ever since Novak Djokovic was deported out of Australia. Although the world No. 2 unsurprisingly made his way through to the final, it wasn’t easy. He battled through four tight sets against Maxime Cressy in the fourth round, saved a match point in an incredible 6-7(4), 3-6, 7-6(2), 7-5, 6-4 quarterfinal win over Felix Auger-Aliassime, and then pulled away from Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 following three wildly entertaining sets on Friday night.

Nadal’s most significant scare also came in the quarters, when he was less than 100 percent physically but managed to hold off Denis Shapovalov 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-3 after four hours and eight minutes. Another mid-match hiccup against Matteo Berrettini was more brief, as Nadal advanced to the final via a 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 decision on Friday afternoon.

“For me it’s something completely unexpected,” the 35-year-old said of being back in an Australian Open final for the sixth time, which has come on the heels of a foot injury and also a case of Covid-19. “So I am super happy. Everybody knows me; [I’m] always gonna try my best. Of course my goal now is to win.”

Winning won’t be easy against an opponent who is currently the toughest test other than Djokovic for pretty much every player on tour–at least on hard courts. Medvedev is the reigning U.S. Open champion, the 2021 Aussie Open runner-up (to Djokovic), and he will become No. 1 in the world in February when Djokovic’s 2021 title points come off the board if he triumphs on Sunday.

“It’s really tough to get into [a slam] final, and I always have [the Big 3] there waiting for me,” Medvedev noted. “But it’s fun, you know. When I was like eight, 10 years old I was playing against the wall and I was imagining that it’s Rafa on the other side, or Roger.

“Now I have the chance to play (a) second time (against Nadal in a major final). First one was a close one; epic one. I’m gonna try to prepare well and need to show my best, because that’s what I took from the three finals that I had before: that you have to do better than 100 percent in order to win. That’s what I managed to do in (the 2021) U.S. Open; that’s what I’m gonna try to do on Sunday.”

The Russian should be able to do it. At this point in their careers, with Medvedev at 25 years old and Nadal at 35, it’s a favorable matchup for the younger guy. His world-class two-handed backhand can withstand the left-hander’s heavy topspin, his serve can overpower Nadal’s return, and he can better handle the rigors of a five-setter.

Nadal would probably have to win this one in relatively swift fashion if he wants to make history with a double-career Grand Slam and major title No. 21. Given Medvedev’s form at the moment, that isn’t likely to happen.

Pick: Medvedev in 5

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WWW: Medvedev vs. Nadal?

39 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Nadal

    • It is, without question, the greatest tennis win of all time. There are not enough superlatives for what Nadal just did in Melbourne.

        • amy,

          I tried to stay up. But at about 6:30 am I just konked out.

          I woke up thinking he lost. Unbelievable! Now I can watch him do it.

          He is one in a million!

          I am on cloud nine! I never want to come down from this high.

      • @Cheryl,

        Would love it if you can take NNY’s suggestion and blog about this incredible match!

        For the record, Brad Gilbert and Darren Cahill both picked Rafa to win in 4. I don’t think anyone anywhere thought Rafa could win if it went 5!

        Unbelievable! Yes, this is what legends are made of! And Anonymous the Troll can have all the asterisks the black hole he has in place of a heart desires! ๐Ÿ™‚

        • Ramara,

          The troll Anonymous crawled back under the rick he came from! It was bad enough to see Rafa losing so badly, but that disgusting creepโ€™s garbage posts made it worse.

          I am watching the match. Itโ€™s in the fourth round after Rafa won the third set. This is like a dream!

  1. Spare a thought for meddy.. he almost did what rafa did herr at the us open and is at the receiving end of what he could have done at the uso 19 here..
    still cant believe rafa after covid, leg surgery, 5 set almost destroyed against Shapo managed to do this against a form player from two sets down on his worst surface and slam at the age of 35.5 fighting his inner demons of giving up leads in the 5th set

    Fairy tale stuff

  2. Yes fairy tale stuff, especially when his serve deserted him for almost three sets of the match.

    I said it in one of my earlier posts, that I feel Meddy was not physically fresh, and it turned out to be true. He even couldnโ€™t match a 35 year old Rafa in terms of physical fitness. He was feeling agitated during the SF with Tsitsipas, and looking at it, itโ€™s the physical exertion that made him felt agitated (because he had a long match vs FAA and also Cressy).

    Heโ€™s no doubt a fit guy but heโ€™s been playing so many matches last year right through the WTF and the Davis Cup going deep in almost all of those events played. He also played the ATP Cup before coming to the AO, and I felt no matter how fit he was, the long matches here plus the heat would be draining for the body.

    Rafa OTOH was of course not playing matches when he was recovering from his foot issue, so he was resting his body in that sense. No doubt the heat at the AO was bothering him too but he was able to recover quickly. I also felt that Rafa had paced himself nicely in his matches prior to the final, not over exerting himself except for the QF match.

    Had Rafa served better, he could have won the final in four sets. However, we are not complaining now that he has won, and in such a dramatic fashion.

    • I think too Rafa was incredibly calm, not fist pumping and celebrating as much bcoz he tried to conserve the energy so much that when he won he didn’t even fall to the floor as usual, just dropped racket. He didn’t even seem so spent after match, the adrenaline was flowing!! I loved how he served to win at love.

      Novak and Roger congratulated him afterwards which i found was very classy!

  3. Melbourne had been unbelievably cruel to Rafa. What an unbelievably sweet victory to act as an analgesic for all the scars! AO can be called the happy slam again๐Ÿ˜€
    Just hope this is where the parallels with the 2009 season ends and Rafa stays healthy and competitive for the rest of the season
    Vamoos!

    • I hope Rafa doesn’t play too soon or too much after this. RG is his next big goal.
      Thinking Novax will be absolutely obsessed with the desire to beat him there after what has happened here…
      Bet he is gnashing his teeth!
      Fed immediately sent a wonderful message of congrats. Has Novax sent one?!

      • OK fair enough I just saw he has congratulated Ash and Rafa!
        This has been an absolutely extraordinary tournament with Ash and Rafa winning. Unbelievable scenes both yesterday and today. I can’t remember another GS like it.
        Rafa is the first player in the Open era to come back from 2 sets down here and win…

  4. This makes up for so much heartache at this slam! It is the sweetest win of all! Now I can watch how Rafa did it.

    The man is just a warrior. Never gave up!

    • I am here NNY…I have a lot to say for now I have ordered special mutton (goat ) biryani and am feasting on it as a celebration …

      Congrats to all Rafans and Rafa I love you ..God bless you

      • Sanju can i have some? Lol!!

        Medvedev has managed to ingratiate himself upon me. He was so gracious in his speech and was a good sport overall. I wish him the best for the rest of the season. I liked how Rafa told him that he knows exactly how he feels given all the heartbreaks he has had on this court. But Medvedev will obviously win more slams as he still young.

        Can you believe that after 124 players in the field Rafa was the eventual winner all along?! I would not believe it two weeks ago!! I was watching this Youtube analyst, Gil, and he and two others were discussing the match two days ago and they were convinced that Med would win except for this one analyst who said she knows that on paper Medvedev is the favourite but her heart says Rafa bcoz there is something about Rafa that really stops you from counting him out, and she is right. Rafa has this brave heart quality you will never ever find in any other tennis player, not now or EVER!

  5. This is the greatest win of his career. Absolutely no doubt. Wimbledon 2008 was incredible but the hurdles he’s overcome to win this one and the circumstances, this one is in a league of its own.

    Rafa becomes

    -the first man to win 21 majors in the open era
    -the first man in the open era to win an AO final from 2 sets down
    -The fourth man to win all four majors at least twice

    Everyone reading my posts knows I have been very optimistic about his chances to win AO once he reached the 4th round. Today, though, when he was down 2 sets to love, even I was sure he was going to lose. I knew he’d mount a fight in set 3 and maybe win it but no way he is winning this match. The guy goes from 2-3 0-40in set 3 down to winning in in 7-5 in the fifth. Did he just also physically outlast probably the fittest next gen player out there?! His mind can conquer just about anything!

    Still struggling to find the right words. I am also glad the patterns of the match went so much like I had mind ๐Ÿ˜€ I KNEW Rafa was going to use the slice as an offensive weapon the way he did. He used that shot BRILLIANTLY. I knew he was going to attempt S&V but his serve deserted him. You could see on the deuce court he missed some serves to Med’s forehand but was charging to the net for a volley. Tactically, this was perfection from Nadal. When Med got too much rhythm he started using forehand drop shots! He didn’t need to step in on the second serve as he was getting great length from deep behind.

    So much variation, so much guile, so much tenacity and TOO much class.

    The Gladiator is BACK.

    Hard luck to Medvedev. He is one tough nut to crack! Human wall.

  6. Still shaking my head on how Rafa managed to get more breaks than a server of medvedev’s pedigree while being in trouble on every service game of his own.. his 6-5 game was probably one of the most straighforward games on his serve.

    It just feels so absurd considering he was losing to Harris not too long ago and has barely played recently. To beat the young gen like ahapovalov berretini khachanov and a medvedev in the peak of his career while himself being in the twilight on his least preferred surface.
    This slam will be remembered for ages. 5 hrs 24 mins.. getting broken serving for the match and breaking straight back while not even having a sit down to compose himself..
    rafa- you legend

    • This match will be studied for generations to come bcoz it included all levels of tennis lessons w.r.t skill, strategy and guile. Rafa surely has amassed a treasure trove material for his archives in his academy!

    • My thought too! Marc and Rafa have been each other’s lucky charms since 2009! What a beautiful friendship! Brilliant move by Moya to ask Marc to join Rafa’s team. I expect we can also give Moya a lot of credit for Rafa’s new tactics. Speaking of coaches, I expect Rafa’s old coach is over the moon about this win! Not to mention a couple of (not so) “small cousins”!

  7. Rafa starts the year with 2,250 points. Novak has zero and Med at 1,495. This is a significant lead for Rafa since he is very likely to amass loads of points on clay. I think he can get to no.1 again. Maybe not year-end no.1 but reach it during the year. I don’t know how much he’ll play but he surely has a shot at it.

  8. Rafa Nadal has the gs record to himself at least for four months after chasing federer for years and then running into god mode djokovic.!!๐Ÿ˜ƒ๐Ÿ˜ƒ๐Ÿ˜ƒ
    Numero 21!!
    Hope he rests up and just comes back at Monte Carlo..

  9. Congratulations all rafa fans.

    I brought out some special whisky to celebrate.

    What a win. Stuff of outrageous legend.

    Enjoy and congratulations NNY,Nadline,VR,Sanju.

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