Expert picks are back for the Australian Open final on Sunday night, when both Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal are battling for not only the title but also for some serious history. With a victory, Medvedev would become the first player to back up his first slam title by winning the very next major. He would also become world No. 1 for the first time next month. Nadal, of course, would get to No. 21 with a win. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(6) Rafael Nadal vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: Matteo Berrettini? Great matchup for Nadal. Daniil Medvedev? Not a great matchup. It’s easy to see why. Berrettini may serve even bigger and hit his forehand even bigger than Medvedev, but the Italian’s backhand is a major weakness and he doesn’t defend well. What are two absolute must-haves to defeat Nadal? A world-class backhand and elite defensive skills–especially in terms of defending the backhand side. Medvedev has both. In fact, his combination of backhand and defense is better than everyone else’s on tour other than Novak Djokovic.
The second-ranked Russian also has the edge in endurance. That’s not a knock on Nadal; that’s just the nature of things when the Spaniard is 35 and his opponent is 25. Medvedev played for four hours and 42 minutes against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals and then came out two days later and wore down Stefanos Tsitsipas physically even though Tsitsipas was coming off a lightning-quick quarter against Jannik Sinner. In their epic 2019 U.S. Open final, Nadal was closer to his prime and Medvedev was further away from his prime than they are now. Nadal won that one in five. I expect roles to be reversed in this one. Medvedev in 5: 5-7, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-3.
Cheryl: Nadal is in the final of the Australian Open for the sixth time. Despite his best efforts–some of which have been flat-out Herculean–he has just one title (2009). He is chasing history, of course, The Spaniard is tied at 20 majors apiece with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. That his first real shot at No. 21 should come in Melbourne is delightfully ironic; Oz is his least-successful slam, after all. Oh, and there’s the fact that he just tiptoed back to tennis after a half a year nursing foot pain from a congenital issue. He really has played remarkably well this fortnight. Aggressive serving, crowding the baseline on returns, and making an obvious (and often successful) attempt at shortening points to be kinder to his 35-year-old body…. That is why he has the chance.
Unfortunately for Nadal’s place in the history books, Medvedev is standing in his way as the other best player in the draw. The world No. 2 snagged his first major at the 2021 U.S. Open, handing Djokovic a beatdown as the Serb made a bid for No. 21 and the calendar-year Grand Slam. That he’s well-positioned to do the same to Nadal in Melbourne is no accident. Medvedev hasn’t been at his best some of the time over the past two weeks. A wonky match in the fourth round against Maxime Cressy had the Russian out of sorts…but he has a way of showing up in the big moments. On hard courts, Medvedev’s best is probably better than Nadal’s best. He is deceptively fast and his offense is more lethal than Nadal’s. Still, with this much on the line the Spaniard is going to show up.
Medvedev in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): With his semifinal victory over Tsitsipas, Medvedev certainly answered any stamina-related “questions” following his lengthy quarterfinal against Auger-Aliassime. Even a Medvedev meltdown or other mid-match detour at a major no longer appears to have any significant impact or an ability to flip a match in favor of his opponent. However, the man on the other side of the net this time is Nadal–who perhaps benefitted from the Russian’s antics at the 2019 U.S. Open and beat him in that final.
In his AO semifinal on Friday, Nadal simply outclassed Berrettini for two full sets and then withstood a serving barrage before picking his spot to do damage and secure the break in the fourth–leading to the win less than five minutes later. Even if Nadal is able to duplicate the caliber of his game from the initial two sets in the semi into the final, it will not be enough against Medvedev. The world No. 2 seemingly has all the answers, gets nearly everything back in play, and goes big at the most unexpected of times. Medvedev in 4: 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(3), 7-5.
VAMOS RAFA.
Rafa proved everyone wrong.
What an absolutely outrageous achievement seeing where he was few weeks back
Think we are all half dead after that!
No words.
Congratulations all Rafa Fans here.
The way rafa lost the 2nd set after having it in the bag, i felt rafa will not have what it takes in the next set , but he proved me wrong.
This slam win is up there with his best ever wins.Came back 2 sets down in a GS final against an on fire much younger medvedev. Talk about outrageous.
Glad to see all the experts and bookies proven wrong Hahahaha. Some people lost some serious money today XD.
Hope you’ve all noticed how anonymous has disappeared now Rafa won!😀What an extraordinary AO this has been. Ash winning! Rafa winning from 2 sets down when he nearly didn’t play!
Epic epic drama!😀
Could this AO have been any worse for Novax?!
Thinking that Meddy is off his Xmas card list now…
Yes, deporting Novak was literally the only way how Rafa could have won this.
You’ve got that right.
No wonder Rafa didn’t offer any support when Novak was treated poorly by the Australian government.
But what goes around, comes around…
Wonderful tribute from Fed!
Why was this one so much easier to watch than USO 2019? Maybe that was just me. Or maybe I didn’t expect it from him at all, which helped. Maybe having little expectations about his own chances helped Rafa as well in set 5. He was clearly the better player in set 5 and fresher too. Its barely believable given his age.
Amy ..the Novak fans are acting like such sore losers .so f#₹34&-+ petty i tell you .a guy just battled for 5 hrs 20 ,came from 2 sets down n made history beating a guy 10 years younger n a beast on HC, yet these guys are going on n on about the asterisk..i mean atleast show the grace to appreciate what u seen .their own guy crumbled under the weight n lost in straight sets trying to get 21..they are flummoxed how did Rafa get so much energy n ofcourse being suspicious. There is something called adrenaline n willpower ,I guess they never heard about it .
Btw not Novak n Rafa got their double career gs from 2 sets down ..coincidence .though this match was way way better
I am very happy seeing the entire tennis universe lauding Rafa. It just goes to show how much he is liked and that is just due to his incredible work ethic ..u just cannot grudge such a person’s success ..u just can’t as he works so hard
Many players have used word goat and king in their felicitations
Anonymous ke liye khaas 2 line ..I’m sure all desis or those who know Hindi will understand typical mumbai Bollywood style 🙂 ..chal re nikal patli gali se, kat le , Rafa ne tujhe Rafa dafa kar diya ..jaake roke dub maar apni bil main 🙂
hahaha
I said during the match that Medvedev’s level of complacency was a concern.
I feel asleep and didn’t see the ending but he must’ve been shell shocked when he lost that match.
He was far too casual and Nadal picked up on it.
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There ya go, Anon. Just for you. Thanks for the comic relief!
So Djoker wins how many AOs where Nadal was injured and there’s no asterisk? Not to mention his two RGs – no asterisk there either. Just Rafa to get one because Novax was too stupid to defend his title… really?
Maybe Rafa is not the best tennis player of all times – that debate is anyway subjective and almost impossible to settle. However, today he proved his greatness once again and I really can’t think of any tennis player greater than him.
The big lesson from thus is there’s 3 types of stupid.
The stupid that was sweating up like a racehorse in set 1 & 2, the stupid that was complacent didn’t close out a match he should’ve won 3-0 and the stupid public that idolises the first type of stupid.
The moral of the story: Humanity is pretty darn stupid.
The math is simple.
Rafa has never beaten Novak in AO, nor he ever will.
Novak has beaten Rafa on RG.
Twice.
Med beat Novak at last year’s USO. When he was going for the calendar slam. In straight sets. Med Wilber the number one player after Novak’s points come off. He is the best player at this time. He was considered to be the co-favorite with Novak at the AO.
Rafa beat the best player in the game now on his best surface. Case closed.
Not so much.
AO is no USO.
Besides, Novak had far more pressure on him in that match than anyone since 1969.
So, do think straigt when drawing conclusions.
By the way, do you honestly think that Rafa would have beaten Novak in the semis, if Novak was allowed to play?
Do answer this, please.
I do! It’s his destiny, just like it’s Djoko’s destiny to win that 2012 AO final even when Rafa was leading in the final set!
It’s also destined that Djoko would not win the Olympics singles gold, the USO title that would have won him the calendar slam and slam no.21; and also the COVID 19 situation that he had to forego defending his AO title in 2022.
Just imagine, winning the Olympics gold and the USO would make him the only guy to win all four slams plus an Olympics singles gold medal all within a single year, and I think only a woman player Steffi Graf had done that! And, he would have won slam no.21 at that USO and became the leader in the slam race, and would have a good chance of winning his 10th AO (slam no.22, two clear of his two great rivals and second man to win double digit titles at a slam) in 2022, making him the first man in the open era to have won five slams in a row, and four AO titles in a row!
It’s not meant to be, just like how disappointed or even upset we Rafa fans were in 2009, when Rafa was going for his five in a row FO titles, at that time how would we know Rafa could come back to win five in a row from 2010 to 2014? All I could feel at that time in 2009 was sadness, sadness for Rafa, that he couldn’t accomplish that five in a row, something both Fed and Borg had achieved at a particular slam (or two for Fed). Just one more year that’s required and he couldn’t make it, I mean, how many five years a sportsman could have at the top of his game?
All these things happened for a reason or two; Fed won his FO when Rafa was knocked out of the FO early but Fed was the most prepared guy to step up and so he won the title; Djoko beat Rafa at the FO in 2015 but he wasn’t the best player there and so Stan won the title that year. In 2016 Rafa had to withdraw from FO after winning R2 because of a wrist injury; Djoko stepped up and won the title that year.
This AO, Djoko couldn’t make it to the AO and Rafa stepped up, fought hard to win the title, over a red hot USO champion, who’s tipped to win the title in Djoko’s absence (and would’ve given Djoko a run for his money too had Djoko played and made the final).
Djoko will regret this someday – two hard court Slam titles he could have won – but his own fault he was defaulted/ banned for thinking he was above the rules…
For sometime now Ive been bored with the Big Three thing and hoping new players would take over… but we vmight have to wait a couple of years.
It makes sense, in a way, but not completely accurate.
He was playing by the rules, as was shown in the court.
And those rules… Now that’s really something.
Just imagine if a country unilaterally sets entry rules, like:
what if China said only athletes that are vaccinated with Chinese vaccine can enter China to participate Winter Olympic Rules?
Or, what if Aussies were even stricter and said, only Australian citizens can compete on this year’s AO, due to covid restrictions…
If you want to replicate a society from a Handmaiden’s Tale, just don’t host international events.
Big Al, the Big Three thing is still not quite over, but we are definitely at the rear end of this long running saga. The young guys have matured by now, and they are definitely able to beat any member of the trio, although they won’t always accomplish a win. Therefore tennis should be very interesting in the near future.
Beating a healthy Rafa in Paris might still be the most difficult feat. As to Novak – I think he will be back with a vengeance, and who knows what he is willing to do in order to sort out his covid problems…I do not see Federer as a future slam winner, though. But who knows for sure? Most of us thought that Rafa will not win a second AO trophy – and certainly not after a lengthy injury break! Well, most of us were wrong!
There was nothing stopping Novax from listening to the same medical advice we all have to and just getting that jab, was there? Then he could have played
Al,
But you are being logical. Coward Anonymous does not understand the concept of logic. All he had to do was get vaccinated. Like the 97 out of 100 mens players who did.
No dumb conspiracies. Just rules in a pandemic. Every country has the right to protect its citizens from the spread of a dangerous virus. It is life and death.
Every country does. Just then leave hosting of a Grand Slam to some other country that does the job properly.
Or just make AO only for australian citexens only.
“Coward Anonymous”?
Wow, calling names. That really speaks volumes of you.
I am simply ignoring any comments from the army of trolls bravely posting as Anonymous. I strongly recommend others to do the same.
Cristian,
You think it’s more than one person?
Yes, I suspect that we are getting some attention from the Russian troll farm.
Aah, the know-it-all Cristian is back in action.
It seems that there is no subject where you are not the expert.
Dear tennis fans and dear rafafans,
As I have said earlier, I had picked Medvedev for the win – like the majority of tennis experts – and for quite a while it looked as if I was right, although I was not at all happy about being right. And then a miracle happened! I have to eat crow, and I like it! Rafa’s tenacity, grit, will power and his extraordinary intelligence made this miracle possible!
The AO got their record breaking hour of sparkling tennis history after all, although the protagonist was not the defending champion who had been originally cast in that role by the leading AO executives 😉 But I really don’t think that we will hear a lot of talk about asterisks and such nonsense. After all Rafa has beaten a few quality oponents on the way into the final, where he won against the guy who half a year ago beat Novak in NY fairly easily in straight sets. And Medvedev was the guy who denied Novak the 21st slam trophy as well as the calendar slam! I am very sure that Medvedev will become a multi-slam winner eventually, although right now he still has to fight against the GOATs who are reluctant to leave the stage just yet.
And Novak? He is probably very cross with Daniil right now 😉 and if Rafa’s victory doesn’t persuade him to get vaxxed ASAP, I don’t know what will…
Btw, if we look at improbable records: is there another tennis player who has managed to win a slam tournament 13 years after winning it for the first time, but failing to win the trophy in between? Obviously all three GOATs have won the trophy 13 or more years after winning the first one at their respective favorite tournament, which would be Roger’s Wimbledon. Rafa’s FO and Novak’s AO. But I think it is stunning that Rafa managed to pull this off at the AO of all places and on his least favorite surface!
https://youtu.be/HDRZ-AZ3Qko
Meddy’s kid died pc and some really gracious words abt Rafa
just to be clear, Medvedev does not have a kid who died