Expert picks are back for the Australian Open final on Sunday night, when both Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal are battling for not only the title but also for some serious history. With a victory, Medvedev would become the first player to back up his first slam title by winning the very next major. He would also become world No. 1 for the first time next month. Nadal, of course, would get to No. 21 with a win. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(6) Rafael Nadal vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: Matteo Berrettini? Great matchup for Nadal. Daniil Medvedev? Not a great matchup. It’s easy to see why. Berrettini may serve even bigger and hit his forehand even bigger than Medvedev, but the Italian’s backhand is a major weakness and he doesn’t defend well. What are two absolute must-haves to defeat Nadal? A world-class backhand and elite defensive skills–especially in terms of defending the backhand side. Medvedev has both. In fact, his combination of backhand and defense is better than everyone else’s on tour other than Novak Djokovic.
The second-ranked Russian also has the edge in endurance. That’s not a knock on Nadal; that’s just the nature of things when the Spaniard is 35 and his opponent is 25. Medvedev played for four hours and 42 minutes against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals and then came out two days later and wore down Stefanos Tsitsipas physically even though Tsitsipas was coming off a lightning-quick quarter against Jannik Sinner. In their epic 2019 U.S. Open final, Nadal was closer to his prime and Medvedev was further away from his prime than they are now. Nadal won that one in five. I expect roles to be reversed in this one. Medvedev in 5: 5-7, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-3.
Cheryl: Nadal is in the final of the Australian Open for the sixth time. Despite his best efforts–some of which have been flat-out Herculean–he has just one title (2009). He is chasing history, of course, The Spaniard is tied at 20 majors apiece with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. That his first real shot at No. 21 should come in Melbourne is delightfully ironic; Oz is his least-successful slam, after all. Oh, and there’s the fact that he just tiptoed back to tennis after a half a year nursing foot pain from a congenital issue. He really has played remarkably well this fortnight. Aggressive serving, crowding the baseline on returns, and making an obvious (and often successful) attempt at shortening points to be kinder to his 35-year-old body…. That is why he has the chance.
Unfortunately for Nadal’s place in the history books, Medvedev is standing in his way as the other best player in the draw. The world No. 2 snagged his first major at the 2021 U.S. Open, handing Djokovic a beatdown as the Serb made a bid for No. 21 and the calendar-year Grand Slam. That he’s well-positioned to do the same to Nadal in Melbourne is no accident. Medvedev hasn’t been at his best some of the time over the past two weeks. A wonky match in the fourth round against Maxime Cressy had the Russian out of sorts…but he has a way of showing up in the big moments. On hard courts, Medvedev’s best is probably better than Nadal’s best. He is deceptively fast and his offense is more lethal than Nadal’s. Still, with this much on the line the Spaniard is going to show up.
Medvedev in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): With his semifinal victory over Tsitsipas, Medvedev certainly answered any stamina-related “questions” following his lengthy quarterfinal against Auger-Aliassime. Even a Medvedev meltdown or other mid-match detour at a major no longer appears to have any significant impact or an ability to flip a match in favor of his opponent. However, the man on the other side of the net this time is Nadal–who perhaps benefitted from the Russian’s antics at the 2019 U.S. Open and beat him in that final.
In his AO semifinal on Friday, Nadal simply outclassed Berrettini for two full sets and then withstood a serving barrage before picking his spot to do damage and secure the break in the fourth–leading to the win less than five minutes later. Even if Nadal is able to duplicate the caliber of his game from the initial two sets in the semi into the final, it will not be enough against Medvedev. The world No. 2 seemingly has all the answers, gets nearly everything back in play, and goes big at the most unexpected of times. Medvedev in 4: 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(3), 7-5.
The younger man will win the Medal final but he will be pushed
But,as usual the polls on here say Nadal will win – Id say 60-40 Med and anything can happen
Thats why I didnt bother watching the semis – on replay – I did my best to avoid the results – but- once I know the result, I just watch the highlights
Whoever wins wont have an asterisk
Oh, yes they will have an asterisk, make no mistake.
And you know it as well. That is exactly why you’re bringing this up.
I think people can tell when its me
Oh all 3 for Medvedev..hmm
What was the prediction for uso final, anyone remembers ?
Djokovic said he will play uso final as if it was his last match . Rafa just said will play his best.
My worry is only on 2 counts – the fitness and endurance in a long match and the pressure of the occasion on verge of history .
Rafa may not be the fav on current form or recent results or surface preference or age but then if destiny wants to reward him for all the work n toil n injuries that have robbed him ,this maybe the time. It will surely be a historic story though if he wins 21 n double career grand slam at the same event where he has least slams
Rafa will enter the match as the underdog.
Medvedev obviously will try and do what djokovic does against nadal.
Hoping Rafa brings his A game. Anything less wont suffice.
Vamos Rafa
21st slam in the making towards his 24th.
My heart says of course Rafa, but my brain says Medvedev.
It’s a miracle and testament of his enduring class that Rafa is even in the final. But Daniil is nowadays in a different league than the six opponents Rafa has faced so far. Medvedev improved in the mental department, and he doesn’t fear the Big Three anymore. Medvedev is also an experienced slam finalist by now. And unlike Rafa for whom the upcoming final may be his best chance to win a second AO trophy, Medvedev has no pressure at all. The future is his, and he will become a multiple slam winner for sure, if he stays healthy.
However, Rafa is a mental GOAT. On a tennis court he may well be one of the most intelligent players ever – a fact which has often been overlooked even by many experts when he was in his physical prime. His speed, his endurance and his raw power was more obvious. But the aging Agassi who played against Rafa in a Montreal final, noticed that his still very young opponent wasn’t just brawny but had also plenty of brains. Agassi, who lost that final dominated the match at first, but when Rafa realized that he did not hurt Agassi, he made mid-match adjustments, and Agassi said later that he was suddenly playing against a totally different opponent. Since these long bygone years Rafa has gained a wealth of experience, and nobody questions his intelligence and his mental prowess. But he is not at his physical best, yet, and his opponent is also intelligent and ten years younger. Therefore most experts have picked Medvedew. But the rowdy AO crowd will be firmly behind Rafa, and nobody would be overly surprised if Rafa’s improbable run into the final will have a happy ending after all!
i think a lot of people will be surprised!
Ha, ha Ricky! We can state now with certainty, that a lot of people have been surprised – and the bookies have made quite a bit of money 😉 However, those who have bet that Rafa would win in five after having lost the first two sets, should be partying now!
Test:
All my recent attempts to comment have vanished into cyberspace. Why?? I am using another email address. And while my brain says that Medvedev will win the trophy, I hope nevertheless that Rafa’s improbable ride into another AO final will have a happy end 😀
Ok, this worked well. Here’s to a great final!
News
Stat of the Day: Rafael Nadal has now won 21 of his last 25 Grand Slam semifinals
The Spaniard is through to his 29th final in 63 career Grand Slams played—that’s 46%.
By
John Berkok
Published Jan 28, 2022
https://www.tennis.com/baseline/articles/stat-of-the-day-rafael-nadal-has-won-21-of-his-last-25-grand-slam-semifinals
Vr awaiting your pick
Nadal in 4 sets.
Vamos Rafa. Go get the win.
Rafa has won 84% of his Grand Slam finals.
Vamos Rafa!
Same with Laver but I wouldn’t be backing him to beat Medvedev!
Nadline, these statistics would be even nore impressive, if we exclude Rafa’s AO finals. He has never lost one of his 13 FO finals, and he lost only one Wimby final out of three and one US Open final out of five. Both losses were inflicted by Djokovic , and it happened in 2011, when Djokovic became the bogeyman for all rafafans because he amassed an incredibly streak of consecutive wins against Rafa. And since Rafa and Novak were the two top ranked players in 2011, all these losses against the Djoker happened in finals.
The AO is the only major where Rafa has a negative final record, and he only won one out of five. If Rafa wins tomorrow, he would end a streak which lasted for 13 years!
FYI, Rafa lost 3 Winmbledon finals, won 2.
For rafafans it’s a bit disheartening to see that virtually all tennis experts have picked Medvedev 😞 Of course this doesn’t mean that these predictions will actually become true. Most experts picked Zverev over Shapo, and we all know how that ended. But the fact that Medvedev is the clear betting favorite confirms my own nagging doubts.
Let’s hope that some people earn a of money because they backed the underdog 😉
I’m very surprised all experts picked Medvedev. Also, he’s bookies’ favourite.
For me it’s more like a 50-50.
55-45 at best for the Russian. Anyway, well done Rafa. Impressive start of the year. Now I finally understand why I chose to like Fed. I was not sure for a long time. It’s about style. I prefer any day the style of Shapo and Tsitsi over Med and Djoko. Although their defense is really amazing.
Med got really upset during his match with Cressy which could have gone 5 so maybe Rafa should serve and volley!😀😀
While doing the basics very well the key shot for Rafa to win is the same as against Novax. He has to be able to break up the patterns of play by repeatedly hitting his fhdtl. Otherwise he will end up trading backhands. If that happens there is only one winner.
Has to be aggressive and shorten the points so also hoping for some drop shots. He needs to get Med off balance.
You should really contact Rafa to tell him that.
Medal final I coined a phrase
I actually like “Medal” 😉
I don’t think it will be a lasting rivalry. But this match is so significant that a great nickname is needed.
their last 3 matches by themselves deserve a nickname. they have been epic.
Popcorn ready!!!…..Heart says Rafa but brain says Med….in 4.
None of the experts talked about mental game when it come to finals endurance is important and same as mental game 50/50. Nadal I think has the best mental game in the game and Medvedev is still learning in that category. There is a chance that nadal wins this match on mental basis than endurance. Should be great to watch who handles the pressure better. My money is on nadal to take this slamm and become the first to 21 after what Novak did to him in French I think rafa wants to steal Australia and he will get it done! Vamos rafa!
One intangible is that Rafa has never lost to anyone other than djokerer at a grand slam final, the wawrinka back injury loss, not withstanding.
For all the talk of Medvedev being the favorite, he too has not played lights out and has been stretched by his draw.
Rafa will not get a better opportunity to win an AO than this.
Rafa in 4🤞🏻🤞🏻
What surprises me I’d just about no analyst or expert is picking Rafa and all bookies are favoring Med
If Rafa now wins ,it will be even sweeter as no one is giving him a chance.
I again repeat , it will be historic to get no 21 and double career slam together at his least successful slam. Go for it Rafa . God bless and may the force be with you.
Sanju, I am also a bit puzzled that absolutely no expert has picked Rafa. Not even Steve Tignor – although that may actually be a blessing, since the “Tignor Curse” is well documented and widely feared 😉
Jokes aside, I understand that most experts are sceptical about Rafa’s ability to reach his best level against a young opponent after his long injury break and his recent covid-infection. It’s obviously sensible to pick Medvedew.
you can pick against Rafa and still think he has a CHANCE….
I don’t believe that Medvedev has played better than Rafa through the rounds. Cressy, who Rafa beat in straight sets in Melbourne Summer Set, took Med to 4 sets and Med was lucky to come out of that match the winner. Kyrgios took him to 4 sets and Felix took hi to 5 sets and even had a MP and Tsitsipas took him to 4 sets.
Anyone would think that Med went through his draw swimmingly. Rafa had 2 four set matches and 1 four set match.
Basicly, Rafa is a better match player than Med and had it been the other way round, Med supporters would have highlighted their h2h which I agree is only relevant up to a point but cannot be ignored.
I think punters are relying on the ranking in their choice but we all know that numbers do lie, especially with the Covid factor.