Expert picks are back for the Australian Open final on Sunday night, when both Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal are battling for not only the title but also for some serious history. With a victory, Medvedev would become the first player to back up his first slam title by winning the very next major. He would also become world No. 1 for the first time next month. Nadal, of course, would get to No. 21 with a win. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(6) Rafael Nadal vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: Matteo Berrettini? Great matchup for Nadal. Daniil Medvedev? Not a great matchup. It’s easy to see why. Berrettini may serve even bigger and hit his forehand even bigger than Medvedev, but the Italian’s backhand is a major weakness and he doesn’t defend well. What are two absolute must-haves to defeat Nadal? A world-class backhand and elite defensive skills–especially in terms of defending the backhand side. Medvedev has both. In fact, his combination of backhand and defense is better than everyone else’s on tour other than Novak Djokovic.
The second-ranked Russian also has the edge in endurance. That’s not a knock on Nadal; that’s just the nature of things when the Spaniard is 35 and his opponent is 25. Medvedev played for four hours and 42 minutes against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals and then came out two days later and wore down Stefanos Tsitsipas physically even though Tsitsipas was coming off a lightning-quick quarter against Jannik Sinner. In their epic 2019 U.S. Open final, Nadal was closer to his prime and Medvedev was further away from his prime than they are now. Nadal won that one in five. I expect roles to be reversed in this one. Medvedev in 5: 5-7, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-3.
Cheryl: Nadal is in the final of the Australian Open for the sixth time. Despite his best efforts–some of which have been flat-out Herculean–he has just one title (2009). He is chasing history, of course, The Spaniard is tied at 20 majors apiece with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. That his first real shot at No. 21 should come in Melbourne is delightfully ironic; Oz is his least-successful slam, after all. Oh, and there’s the fact that he just tiptoed back to tennis after a half a year nursing foot pain from a congenital issue. He really has played remarkably well this fortnight. Aggressive serving, crowding the baseline on returns, and making an obvious (and often successful) attempt at shortening points to be kinder to his 35-year-old body…. That is why he has the chance.
Unfortunately for Nadal’s place in the history books, Medvedev is standing in his way as the other best player in the draw. The world No. 2 snagged his first major at the 2021 U.S. Open, handing Djokovic a beatdown as the Serb made a bid for No. 21 and the calendar-year Grand Slam. That he’s well-positioned to do the same to Nadal in Melbourne is no accident. Medvedev hasn’t been at his best some of the time over the past two weeks. A wonky match in the fourth round against Maxime Cressy had the Russian out of sorts…but he has a way of showing up in the big moments. On hard courts, Medvedev’s best is probably better than Nadal’s best. He is deceptively fast and his offense is more lethal than Nadal’s. Still, with this much on the line the Spaniard is going to show up.
Medvedev in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): With his semifinal victory over Tsitsipas, Medvedev certainly answered any stamina-related “questions” following his lengthy quarterfinal against Auger-Aliassime. Even a Medvedev meltdown or other mid-match detour at a major no longer appears to have any significant impact or an ability to flip a match in favor of his opponent. However, the man on the other side of the net this time is Nadal–who perhaps benefitted from the Russian’s antics at the 2019 U.S. Open and beat him in that final.
In his AO semifinal on Friday, Nadal simply outclassed Berrettini for two full sets and then withstood a serving barrage before picking his spot to do damage and secure the break in the fourth–leading to the win less than five minutes later. Even if Nadal is able to duplicate the caliber of his game from the initial two sets in the semi into the final, it will not be enough against Medvedev. The world No. 2 seemingly has all the answers, gets nearly everything back in play, and goes big at the most unexpected of times. Medvedev in 4: 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(3), 7-5.
171 kph (106 mph) 2nd serve to win the game point! Vamos!
VR, thanks for the conversion. He has really amped up the speed on the second serve.
Wait until Medvedev goes through the gears. He’s in 1st gear right now.
I think Rafa just woke up.
he’s gonna have to start holding serve easier
Couple of mistakes by Medvedev going the wrong way. A bit too casual atm.
Dont worry, that will all change soon enough.
Nadal already trying to slow the game down
Troll alert.
Medvedev is now the odds I said he should’ve been before the match (1.40-1.45)
Rafa is a bit like a deer in the headlights right now… too nervous imo
Too nervous or too exhausted?
Nadal sweating up is like a race horse before a race. They never win.
Rafa”s serve isn’t working.. and Med is playing great as expected.. let’s hope Rafa improves his serve..
Vamos Rafa!
yep, serve needs to improve significantly. Med is NOT missing anything.
Sighh, serve broken. He has been pushed in every service game. Some obervations so far:
1. First serve % is low at 55% and Med is doing a great job returning 2nd serves from deep behind, allowing Rafa to win 3/10 (33%) points only.
2. It is very obvious now how Rafa is trying to use his backhand slice to set up or sometimes disrupt patterns.
3. Rafa has been the one trying to take initiatives a bit more but he he has missed quite a lot somehow. 5 winners to 12 UE and Med’s 6 winners vs 5 UE’s.
4. Rafa has tried S&V once so trying to mix it up but first serve % too low while Med is serving at 81% !
Medvedev goes”you wanna be a big man with the inside out forehand? I’ll hit a driving volley”
Match is over. have a good evening everyone.
So much for Nadal being up 2-1 and Medvedev having to fight back clutch and win it in 5 Lol
Ricky was on the money there.
Omg 2019 vibes
I don’t think he is being bullied around the court or anything. He has been able to set up quite a few points but finds himself undone by errors or brilliant defense from Med (which will happen and you need to accept). The errors need to go down and boy, the quality of serving is NOT good enough for a slam final let alone against Med.
Rafa’s serve is the problem as always. I think he plays the wrong strategy of rallying with Meddy, perhaps thinking that Meddy may be tired. He’s hitting to Meddy’s Bh too often I feel.
He has to change his pattern of play if not it will be game over. Calm down Rafa, think of ways to solve problems. By hook or by crook go out there to attack! You need to rush that Meddy guy and make him run for his shots.
That set was just Rafa being loose.. hope he can buck up from here and make the win even more epic..
If he does not manage to win set 2 it will be an uphill task
Well, that bit of momentum was short lived.
nothing nadal loves more than giving back breaks
The way it is going now seems .Ed is going to finish in 3. Though brain was saying med wanted rafa to win not for 21 but to break curse for ao.
Humm. Rafa can not hold his serve. Break back again
Vamos Rafaaaaa!!!!!!! No matter what!
Hey all Rafans! He did it!!!!!
#BE21EVE
Hi, Hawkeye, I hope you are well!
This win was the most incredible thing, Rafa ever accomplished in his long and great career 🙂