Expert picks are back for the Australian Open final on Sunday night, when both Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal are battling for not only the title but also for some serious history. With a victory, Medvedev would become the first player to back up his first slam title by winning the very next major. He would also become world No. 1 for the first time next month. Nadal, of course, would get to No. 21 with a win. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(6) Rafael Nadal vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: Matteo Berrettini? Great matchup for Nadal. Daniil Medvedev? Not a great matchup. It’s easy to see why. Berrettini may serve even bigger and hit his forehand even bigger than Medvedev, but the Italian’s backhand is a major weakness and he doesn’t defend well. What are two absolute must-haves to defeat Nadal? A world-class backhand and elite defensive skills–especially in terms of defending the backhand side. Medvedev has both. In fact, his combination of backhand and defense is better than everyone else’s on tour other than Novak Djokovic.
The second-ranked Russian also has the edge in endurance. That’s not a knock on Nadal; that’s just the nature of things when the Spaniard is 35 and his opponent is 25. Medvedev played for four hours and 42 minutes against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals and then came out two days later and wore down Stefanos Tsitsipas physically even though Tsitsipas was coming off a lightning-quick quarter against Jannik Sinner. In their epic 2019 U.S. Open final, Nadal was closer to his prime and Medvedev was further away from his prime than they are now. Nadal won that one in five. I expect roles to be reversed in this one. Medvedev in 5: 5-7, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-3.
Cheryl: Nadal is in the final of the Australian Open for the sixth time. Despite his best efforts–some of which have been flat-out Herculean–he has just one title (2009). He is chasing history, of course, The Spaniard is tied at 20 majors apiece with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. That his first real shot at No. 21 should come in Melbourne is delightfully ironic; Oz is his least-successful slam, after all. Oh, and there’s the fact that he just tiptoed back to tennis after a half a year nursing foot pain from a congenital issue. He really has played remarkably well this fortnight. Aggressive serving, crowding the baseline on returns, and making an obvious (and often successful) attempt at shortening points to be kinder to his 35-year-old body…. That is why he has the chance.
Unfortunately for Nadal’s place in the history books, Medvedev is standing in his way as the other best player in the draw. The world No. 2 snagged his first major at the 2021 U.S. Open, handing Djokovic a beatdown as the Serb made a bid for No. 21 and the calendar-year Grand Slam. That he’s well-positioned to do the same to Nadal in Melbourne is no accident. Medvedev hasn’t been at his best some of the time over the past two weeks. A wonky match in the fourth round against Maxime Cressy had the Russian out of sorts…but he has a way of showing up in the big moments. On hard courts, Medvedev’s best is probably better than Nadal’s best. He is deceptively fast and his offense is more lethal than Nadal’s. Still, with this much on the line the Spaniard is going to show up.
Medvedev in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): With his semifinal victory over Tsitsipas, Medvedev certainly answered any stamina-related “questions” following his lengthy quarterfinal against Auger-Aliassime. Even a Medvedev meltdown or other mid-match detour at a major no longer appears to have any significant impact or an ability to flip a match in favor of his opponent. However, the man on the other side of the net this time is Nadal–who perhaps benefitted from the Russian’s antics at the 2019 U.S. Open and beat him in that final.
In his AO semifinal on Friday, Nadal simply outclassed Berrettini for two full sets and then withstood a serving barrage before picking his spot to do damage and secure the break in the fourth–leading to the win less than five minutes later. Even if Nadal is able to duplicate the caliber of his game from the initial two sets in the semi into the final, it will not be enough against Medvedev. The world No. 2 seemingly has all the answers, gets nearly everything back in play, and goes big at the most unexpected of times. Medvedev in 4: 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(3), 7-5.
I am disappointed to see so many analysts picking Med. So little respect for Rafa. What he has done to get to the final, is nothing short of miraculous. I did not have any expectations at the start of the tournament. I just did not know how Rafa would play. He started with an ugly draw. Then it opened up enough to give him chances. But all I heard was that he could not beat Zverev in the quarterfinals. I tried not to think past that.
Then Zverev lost and suddenly there was the real possibility Rafa could go further. We saw how difficult it was for him with the heat stroke. But somehow he won that match.
Rafa finally get done breaks this time at the AO. He has been a warrior to get through to the final. He is smart enough to know that this is a huge opportunity. I will be there supporting him all the way and the hell with the pundits and analysts.
The bookies are using algorithm and as Medvedev is seeded higher than Rafa the computer says he’s the favourite.
You nailed it! The bookies use seedings to determine their odds!
“I am disappointed to see so many analysts picking Med. So little respect for Rafa. What he has done to get to the final, is nothing short of miraculous.”
How dumb are you, seriously?
Good point.
Anonymous,
Not as dumb as you! Coward! Hiding under “Anonymous”! Stupid coward!
You are just a troll hiding your real self. Reading your mindless drivel and how you put everyone else down would be laughable if it wasn’t so insulting.
Have the guys to show who you are. Oh I forgot. You have no guts. You are a know nothing who needs to prop up a sagging, insecure ego.
What a waste!
Have the GUTS!
You’re right; I will change my name to native Sydneysider and stop hiding my identity.
Another one of your highly intellectual posts!
NNY, I really don’t think that not picking Rafa has anything to do with disrespect. Rafa’s run into his 6th AO final has earned him a lot of additional respect. However, it was a miracle after his injury-dominated last year and his recent covid-infection. A win in the final against a very talented opponent, who is ten years younger and who has won the last hardcourt slam against Novak, would be an additional miracle. But the picking business isn’t about miracles or about paying respect but about probabilities. This doesn’t mean that miracles don’t happen once in a while. Rafa might well be the guy who is able to make them happen. And if he loses that final, he still accomplished much more than most people expected!
littlefoot,
I get it. I was thinking to myself that this slam has been difficult for Rafa. One win here. So much bad stuff happening to him. I also reminded myself that Rafa has been off for six months. He has not played best of five set matches since last year. He had Covid.
So I was a bit too sensitive, it’s nothing personal. Med is the favorite at this time. It’s been a great run.
Sometimes one gets a bit too wrested and takes things personally. It made me think about something Rafa said some years ago. He said that people can predict whatever they want. But in the end it is what happens on the court that matters. You have to go out there and win.
So be it.
yep. Has nothing to do with disrespect. I don’t think people realize just how big of an upset a 35-year-old Nadal coming back from a 5-month injury beating a 25-year-old Medvedev on a hard curt would be.
It’s amazing how much consideration you’ve been giving to age recently. Well done, you deserve all the credit.
Ricky,
Yes that’s true. To be honest, I couldn’t foresee him getting to the final. It is not about disrespect at all. I just took it wrong. My emotions got the better of me. On paper Med is the favorite. It remains to be seen if we have an upset.
I will be watching.
It’s 80/20 in not in Nadal’s favour.
After taking all the dumb money on Nadal the bookies are now adjusting their lines to where they should be. Love their work!
👍🏼
At last I can see where Ricky is coming from. Age didn’t stop experts picking Roger against everyone for everything for years, as far as I can remember.
That wasnt on clay against a superior clay courter.
Rafa got SOME breaks!
Nadline and NNY I am with you. I re-watched the 2019 US Open. There is no doubt Medvedev is not a push over but looking at the match at least an objective analyst could say it is 50-50. The only reason I have a little concern it is just because Nadal is unlucky at the AO but i think he is at the same level and maybe slightly better than Med at the AO hardcourt. Last US OPEN every analyst picked Djokovic to win eventhough he was not playing great tennis. Nadal in 4 is more likely and I think he could do it in 3.
Why in 3? In 2 or one maybe…
Stop posting dumb posts as me.
Yes I watched their 2019 USO final when they both traded shots from the baseline but Rafa is hasn’t been playing fron the baseline in this tournament. Yesterday his practice session was all about the volley so we shall see.
Nadal has played only one night match where Medvedev has played few. Is it a concern?
Raj, Rafa played his best match at night against Berrettini and it was during a day match that he was taken to 5 sets by Shapo because of the heat.
Wilander has said Rafa will win. Not sure whether he is saying this to build suspense on Eurosport..
NK has said Ash is a great player but HE is the one heading the tv ratings and creating the best atmosphere ever at the AO.
The guy really is a narcissistic douchebag…
Well, we already knew that! But I guess he’s compelled to keep proving it.
amy,
LOL! I love it! Narcissistic douchebag! I think NK may have some competition from Anonymous! He truly has delusions of grandeur about himself!
Wilander, otherwise known as Trollander? 😉 Yes he’s picked Rafa this time but I think it’s only because both he and Henman have been put on opposite sides to make the case for either player. Trollander is generally in the anti-Rafa camp when it comes to picking favourites for titles.
I’ve now read a vast quantity of weather forecasts.
They are all different. Some have it hot and sunny some hot and cloudy, cooler and cloudy..!
Only one has it raining and I really really hope that one isn’t right as playing under the roof would benefit Med.
Fingers crossed!
Go Rafa!!
Okay, I am going to share my thoughts over 2 posts. Apologies of the length!
It’s a tough one to call isn’t it. On one hand, you have Medvedev who is a beast on hard courts and is capable of beating anyone on this surface. He is physically super strong and mentally taken on the likes of Nadal and Djokovic before. The only thing we haven’t seen from him is, how does he play these big finals when he is considered to be the favourite? Honestly haven’t seen enough play enough of these matches to tell. I know he won USO but Novak was far from his mental game in that match and we know what happened in AO 21 final.
Rafa, on the other hand, has been pulling a rabbit out of the hat time and time again. He’s surpassed all expectations. He seems to be great clarity on the court and tactically he is extremely aware of what is needed. He has made adjustments during matches and has had the right What we don’t quite know is whether he is ready for the physical grind. The guy maybe isn’t that match tough yet? Probably the adrenaline and his will power will give him enough to play 5 sets if need be?
Here’s what Rafa needs to do in my view and I think this what the plan would be:
1. Be aggressive with the serve and take chances. Doesn’t matter if it’s the final. He is serving 7-8 mph quicker than he was in 2019. It is NOT easy to attack his second serve at the moment.
2. Serve and volley every now and then! Medvedev is so deep on the return and there is space and time to come in, esp on the ad court. I hope Med’s quality of return won’t make him hesitate.
3. Finding the right ROS balance. I think he’ll start by returning very close to the baseline and go out all attack. He would want to keep rallies shorter. If Med finds a crazy serving rhythm, he’ll step back just like he did in that 4th set against Berettini.
4. Use the backhand slice smartly. I think he’s use this quite well. Once he hits a quality slice, he is ready to respond with a huge backhand CC or a forehand DTL. I think the slice is a key shot for this as Med is slightly superior in those CC exchanges. Med’s shots are very flat and I remember Federer once bullied him around the court with his slices and variation. He wasn’t too comfortable playing Cressy either. Don’t give him all that rhythm, Rafa. I read that Barty also mentioned this surface is reacting well to slices.
I think the match will be played in 25-26 C degrees with the roof open so the temperature is good. Rafa is one of the best ever at playing slam finals and I think he has the edge mentally.
Rafa has the edge for rallies under 5 shots and he has the weapons to win longer rallies. Med’s forehand is an improved shot but still lacks some firepower.
Apart from the physical concerns, another one I have is Rafa’s concentration/intensity lapses that we have seen. That is probably due to not playing competitive slam for months.
IF Rafa can serve lights out and keep winning those crucial free points, I think he narrowly takes this match in 4 sets. If the serve is not up to the mark and he has too many lapses (which I think won’t be the case since this is a slam final) I think he loses.
Finally, to me the match is more on Rafa’s racket. He is the more offensive player and even in their indoor matches, when Rafa has really tightened the screws, I’ve seen him dictate play. Sure, Med’s backhand can stand up to Rafa’s forehand but I think Rafa will take more initiatives. May good luck be with you, champ. Go get it!
VR,
NEVER apologize for long posts!! We all admire your tennis acumen and it’s a pleasure to read your posts.
I think this match could go any which way, to tell the truth. Med is not that consistent mentally. Rafa is. Couple that with the sheer joy he is feeling in just playing tennis at the moment. Sure, he wants to win but whichever way this goes he’s a very happy camper! Me, too. Rafa’s had a glorious career. Everything we get from him from now on is gravy! He’s done way better at this AO than *anyone* expected.
haha, thanks Ramara!
And 100% agreed, we did not expect this at all. Rafa is so content with himself and I feel he will be more relaxed. He won’t burden himself like Novak did either. Sure, he’ll give his all to win no.21 and knows how close he is.
Of course he’s content because Novak is not on the other side of net.
Nothing to do with that. Absolutely nothing
VR,
It really is a privilege to read your analysis of the final. I am okay with however long you wish to go on.
I am concerned about Rafa’s lapses. I absolutely think it’s due to lack of competitive slam match play.
I know this will be tough. I was not prepared for him to get to the final. Do you care that most analysts are predicting a win for Med?
Don’t care at all, NNY. Medvedev is perhaps a safer choice most people are going with that.
For instance, the points mentioned by Ricky are also valid regarding Med’s defense and backhand. It’s a close contest. To me it is key that Rafa serves to the best of his abilities. If he does that, I am hoping he’ll squeeze it out.
VR, i agree with your detailed and knowledeable analysis. This year’s AO final is very hard to predict, and I don’t believe in propping up or denigrating a player because his fans only want to hear positive messages and his detractors want to hear about negative aspects.
There is the very real possibility that Rafa will Lose another AO final. But positive or negative predictions have no influence whatsoever on the actual outcome of the match!
VR,
I know that Med has some real weapons in his game. I appreciate your honesty about the final. I have no doubt it will be tough. It’s hard because I was so unprepared for him to get to the final. I just blocked it out of my mind. You have been very straightforward about what it will take for Rafa to win. Rafa has said it himself. He has to play his best. He knows how tough it will be against Med.
@littlefoot, well said! What we would like to happen or genuinely think will happen is not going to have any impact on what happens on the court. It’s hard to see a dull final happening, that’s for sure. Both are great fighters and Daniil will do what he does best: be there like a wall to defend and keep punching holes in his opponent’s armour until they are down.
Rafa will be the one to take initiatives (although Med can also come up with some surprises with clever net approaches) and try to take matters into this hands more often. His team would have seen how FAA had Medvedev at his mercy and they’ll try to accomplish something similar in terms of dynamics.
VR,
The Novak fans are upset because Rafa is in the final. Some of them are the worst of the worst. They are bent out of shape because Nivsk is not on the itgervsyde of the net! Rafa is not thinking about Novak.
NNY, yes, Rafa is well aware of the challenge but I am sure he has all the belief. Medvedev is great but he ain’t Novak. His backhand is amazing but lacks the ability to take balls on the rise Novak does and change direction as effortlessly. Watch out for those slices from Rafa! We are most likely in for a treat as tennis fans and I am hoping we’ll end with a fist pumping spree celebrating something unprecedented
I agree with you VR, the match is on Rafa’s racket. If he comes out all guns blazing and manages to win the first two sets, he will have a good chance of winning the match.
I know Rafa is known for his dip in level in set three, probably to take a breather as he couldn’t sustain playing at a high level consistently for two hours or so, but he’s able to find his high level again in set four to win the match (two out of three times), and managed to win the only five setter he played here despite not too well physically.
Meddy will be all over the place retrieving and hitting incredible passing shots, and serving big, and bigger with precision when in trouble, saving BPs and probably SPs along the way. Rafa will push him time after time and find a way to penetrate that Meddy defence.
If Rafa can be fit and ready and playing without too much pressure or nerve, I like his chances. Meddy will try to play his best tennis of course, though he may not be physically fresh I would think.
This come out blasting approach that Nadal employs may not work as well against Medvedev as it has against previous opponents. Medvedev is not Berrettini or Shapovalov.
I’m sure Medvedev will be ready for it and is not planning to lose 2 of the first 3 sets like everyone else.
Anonymous, And Rafa is not Felix or Cressy.
lucky,
Thanks for your thoughts. We have both you and VR in the house. Good for us!
😄
Well that’s on Novak!
VR,
I will be watching for those slices. That’s why I like your analysis. Then I can keep my eye out for these things. I was hoping to take a nap before the match. I think that’s the only way I can stay up to see it live.
haha, good luck! tricky for your guys in the stats. It is 8.30 am for us in the UK so decent timing.
@Amy will be up I guess!
perfect timing for you
Ill be watching – but on replay- depending what time I get out of bed
And while I will hope Med will win – I appreciate Rafas effort after injury and the passion of his fans on here -if he wins it will be well deserved
Al,
I just wanted to say thank you.
😀
And my gut feeling was absolutely right Nadal was going to win that but who saw him coming from two sets down
And he did deserve it one of the best comebacks of all time
Yes thank you Al! Respect to you!😀
I think this whole match will be no0t so much about tactics more the 20 Slam winner against the newbie one
After taking all the dumb money on Nadal the bookies are now adjusting their lines to where they should be. Love their work!
https://www.braingametennis.com/the-numbers-nadal-v-medvedev/
VR read this
Nice one! Rafa has been less prone to errors and interestingly has done 1% better in the 9+ shots category. I think today his forte will be 5-9 shots
Wake up guys and girls. King is playing soon.
Hello Eugene!
BG has picked Rafa to win in 4
vamos BG!
Good morning vr!
I just read your excellent posts. Thank you!!😀
Morning! Thanks Amy. The roof is closed?
Is it? Due to technology problems I have no coverage!
The roof being closed is very bad news..
Vamooss!! Lets go Rafa.. “Not one negative face”
The roof is wide open 😀sunny day it is!
Vamos Rafa! ❤️
Why did vr say the roof is closed!?
Let’s do this Rafa!
I prob misheard the Eurosport folks. It is wide open indeed
!
I thought the roof is open.
It is
That’s good for Rafa.
Hello nny!
Good luck to our Rafa! Vr has been spreading disinformation to keep people on their toes..
hahaha. apologies!
No need for added torture vr!
Hi amy,
I did not take a nap, so I don’t know if I can hang in there. I will try.
The crowd is insanely behind Rafa.
I hope my nerves survive this.
Hello.dear nny, I have no coverage so I am going to come back in a while…It’s too stressful just to have live scores…
Rod Laver will be presenting the trophy.
Vamos Rafa!
😍
Medvedev knows this match is on his racquet. All he has to do is keep the ball in play.