Australian Open final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Cilic

For the second time in the span of three Grand Slams, Roger Federer and Marin Cilic will be squaring off in a final when they take the court one more time at the 2018 Australian Open on Sunday night.

Federer and Cilic faced each other in last summer’s Wimbledon title match, in which the Swiss sailed to a 6-3, 6-1, 6-4 victory to complete a perfect run at the All-England Club during which he did not drop a single set. Cilic managed to take a set at the Nitto ATP Finals a few months later, but Federer still recovered for a 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-1 win and improved to 8-1 lifetime in the head-to-head series (5-1 on hard courts). Cilic famously earned his lone upset in this matchup with a 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 romp in the 2014 U.S. Open semifinals on the way to his first and so far only major winner’s trophy.

The similarities are striking between this Australian Open and the 2017 Wimbledon event, and not just because it is all coming down to Federer vs. Cilic. Once again, Federer has coasted into a slam final without the loss of even one set. Cilic, on the other hand, has again battled through several three-hour affairs to keep his hopes alive for a second Grand Slam triumph. Injuries plagued the All-England Club festivities, with Novak Djokovic retiring in the quarterfinals, Andy Murray barely managing to complete his quarterfinal loss, Stan Wawrinka not playing again the rest of the season following his departure from London, and even Cilic bogged down by blisters in the final. In Melbourne, Rafael Nadal retired from his quarterfinal clash against Cilic and both semifinals were marred by physical problems.

This fortnight should end in far more entertaining fashion than Wimbledon last summer, when the title match was a snooze-fest.

After all, Cilic is showcasing something similar to the form that took the rest of the field by storm four years ago in New York. The sixth-ranked Croat, who will climb to a career-high No. 3 on Monday, has advanced with victories over Vasek Pospisil, Joao Sousa, Ryan Harrison, Pablo Carreno Busta, Nadal (via fifth-set retirement), and Kyle Edmund.

“I’m feeling really, really good physically, even though I had few matches that went more than three hours,” Cilic commented. “I think I played great tournament so far with my level of tennis. I think I improved it [compared] to end of the last year. I’m playing much, much more aggressive. I’m feeling that I am, for most of the shots, hitting them really, really good. From the return, moving, forehand, backhand, serving, I think everything is in (a) good, solid spot. (I’m) feeling really excited about the final.”

Nobody has been as good or as dominant as Federer. The 36-year-old has basically waltzed past Aljaz Bedene, Jan-Lennard Struff, Richard Gasquet, Marton Fucsovics, Tomas Berdych, and Hyeon Chung (via second-set retirement). Struff, Fucsovics, and Berdych pushed him to one tiebreaker apiece, with Berdych even leading 5-2 in the first set before Federer quickly restored order.

“I think I’ve done everything pretty well,” the second seed assessed. “I’m just pleased that actually my game has been good from the very beginning of the tournament. I mean, I’ve won all my matches without dropping a set. Clearly I was a bit lucky against Berdych in that first set, but things must be all right if I’m in this stage right now not having dropped a set and in the finals.”

But Federer is well aware that things are going swimmingly for Cilic, too.

“I definitely think him winning the U.S. Open gave [him] great belief,” Federer said. “If the big moments come about, that [players like Cilic and Stan Wawrinka] can attain this level–not easily, but they can get there from time to time. I think he played great against Rafa. I think the belief and the way he played very positive made him win that match because he didn’t look good there for a while when he was down a set and a break and everything.

“So I like his attitude; he’s very professional. He’s always very much the same regardless of whether he wins or loses. I like that attitude. On the court, he’s a winner. You can see it on the way he behaves on the court. He’s there to win and not just to be there. Sometimes you see other players you feel like they’re happy to have made the quarters so far. I think he strives for more.”

Cilic should be able to do more on Sunday than he did at Wimbledon, and not just because he appears to be 100 percent from a health standpoint. He is playing better than he did during his run in SW19 and a medium-paced hard court is arguably more conducive to his game than grass, as the ball bounces higher into his strike zone and he has more time to set up his huge groundstrokes.

Federer will likely be tested for the first time this fortnight, but experience, freshness, and just about every other factor favor the 19-time major champion.

Pick: Federer in 4

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