Australian Open final preview and prediction: Halep vs. Wozniacki

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It does not get any bigger than this.

Saturday’s Australian Open women’s singles final is No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the world. It will produce a first-time Grand Slam champion. It will determine the the No. 1 spot in the rankings. And it will, for the winner, be the culmination of an unbelievable run to the title.

It’s Simona Halep vs. Caroline Wozniacki.

The top two players on the WTA Tour will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers when they battle in Rod Laver Arena on Saturday night. Wozniacki is leading the head-to-head series 4-2 and has won three in a row at Halep’s expense dating back to the spring of 2015. The 27-year-old Dane prevailed twice last season; 5-7, 6-4, 6-1 on the grass courts of Eastbourne and 6-0, 6-2 at the WTA Finals in Singapore.

Wozniacki went on to capture the year-end championship title and she is clearly going full steam ahead in 2018. That being said, her run in Melbourne has not been entirely smooth. During second-round action against little-known Croat Jana Fett, the second seed found herself down 5-1, 40-15, double-match point in the third set on Fett’s serve before somehow escaping with a 3-6, 6-2, 7-5 victory. Carla Suarez Navarro is the only other player to take a set off Wozniacki, who recovered from a middle-frame hiccup on Tuesday to defeat the Spaniard 6-0, 6-7(3), 6-2.

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Halep fought off a total of five match points in two different contests during her trip to the title match. The 26-year-old Romanian dug out of a 10-11, 0-40, triple-match point hole in the final set of her memorable third-round matchup against Lauren Davis. Halep ended up surviving 4-6, 6-4, 15-13 before diving headlong into another absolute thriller three rounds later. In Thursday’s second semifinal, the top seed saved two more match points to outlast Angelique Kerber 6-3, 4-6, 9-7.

“The fact that I’m really tired is normal because I played so many matches,” Halep explained. “I spent so many hours on court. But I’m happy. In this moment (it) doesn’t matter; just the fact that I won this match and I can play the final again.”

This will be Halep’s third career major final on the heels of French Open losses in 2014 and 2017. Perhaps those difficult but undoubtedly valuable experiences are why she is able to call Saturday’s upcoming title tilt “normal.”

“It’s a normal match,” Halep commented. “Similar like [against Halep]. I [have played] many times against her. I have to work. I’m ready for it. For sure it’s a big challenge–maybe the biggest one, because all the things that were going on (in) this tournament, (the) first Grand Slam of the year, (my) first final here….”

Wozniacki is also well aware of “all the things that were going on”–both for Halep and for her–earlier in this tournament. It is amazing that this is the final; obviously not according to the rankings, but based on the deficits faced and the number of match points stared down.

“Halep, just like me, was down match points early on in the tournament, has come back and fought her way,” Wozniacki noted. “I think it’s exciting because we’re both playing for the No. 1 ranking. Whoever wins on Saturday will be on the top of the rankings, which I think is a cool storyline. I’m just going to go out there and have fun; enjoy the moment. It’s been a great two weeks. I’m really happy to be there. As I said early on in the week, I could have been home already. But now I’m here and I fought my way all the way to the finals. I’m just really proud of that and really excited.”

Wozniacki is also 0-2 lifetime in Grand Slam finals (both at the U.S. Open), but she went up against a pair of legends in Kim Clijsters (2009) and Serena Williams (2014). Halep’s Roland Garros collapse against underdog Jelena Ostapenko last spring is something far more likely to be a factor on Saturday. Given Halep’s three physically-draining matches Down Under (two due to length and drama, the other because of an ankle injury), Wozniacki may have a slight edge in a couple different departments.

Pick: Wozniacki in 3

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6 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Halep vs. Wozniacki

  1. WeakEra For women’s tennis is there without Serena. Had she been here 70% fit, we would have seen her as the winner.

    #RETURNOFWEAKERA

  2. IMO Serena will probably find it hard after over a year out to come back and dominate outright again, shes said i want more GS but i dont need them, i just think shes after Courts 24 and she will then relax safe in the knowledge shes the greatest female tennis player ever, it will be decades before anybody else comes anywhere near to her GS tally if ever ….

    • I also doubt that Serena can simply pick up where she left off. She’s a year older now, she had a difficult c-section, and as a new mother her priorities might be a little different now. When Clijsters had her spectacular comeback after having her first daughter she was much younger than Serena is now. And she didn’t stay on tour that long. It was almost as if her career was incomplete when she retired for the first time at the young age of 25. When she had bagged three additional slams after her comeback, she retired for good.
      We also shouldn’t forget that in Serena’s absence the other players have developed a sense that they can win trophies, and they won’t be relegated into the second tier again without putting up a fight.

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