Australian Open final preview and prediction: Halep vs. Wozniacki

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It does not get any bigger than this.

Saturday’s Australian Open women’s singles final is No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the world. It will produce a first-time Grand Slam champion. It will determine the the No. 1 spot in the rankings. And it will, for the winner, be the culmination of an unbelievable run to the title.

It’s Simona Halep vs. Caroline Wozniacki.

The top two players on the WTA Tour will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers when they battle in Rod Laver Arena on Saturday night. Wozniacki is leading the head-to-head series 4-2 and has won three in a row at Halep’s expense dating back to the spring of 2015. The 27-year-old Dane prevailed twice last season; 5-7, 6-4, 6-1 on the grass courts of Eastbourne and 6-0, 6-2 at the WTA Finals in Singapore.

Wozniacki went on to capture the year-end championship title and she is clearly going full steam ahead in 2018. That being said, her run in Melbourne has not been entirely smooth. During second-round action against little-known Croat Jana Fett, the second seed found herself down 5-1, 40-15, double-match point in the third set on Fett’s serve before somehow escaping with a 3-6, 6-2, 7-5 victory. Carla Suarez Navarro is the only other player to take a set off Wozniacki, who recovered from a middle-frame hiccup on Tuesday to defeat the Spaniard 6-0, 6-7(3), 6-2.

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Halep fought off a total of five match points in two different contests during her trip to the title match. The 26-year-old Romanian dug out of a 10-11, 0-40, triple-match point hole in the final set of her memorable third-round matchup against Lauren Davis. Halep ended up surviving 4-6, 6-4, 15-13 before diving headlong into another absolute thriller three rounds later. In Thursday’s second semifinal, the top seed saved two more match points to outlast Angelique Kerber 6-3, 4-6, 9-7.

“The fact that I’m really tired is normal because I played so many matches,” Halep explained. “I spent so many hours on court. But I’m happy. In this moment (it) doesn’t matter; just the fact that I won this match and I can play the final again.”

This will be Halep’s third career major final on the heels of French Open losses in 2014 and 2017. Perhaps those difficult but undoubtedly valuable experiences are why she is able to call Saturday’s upcoming title tilt “normal.”

“It’s a normal match,” Halep commented. “Similar like [against Halep]. I [have played] many times against her. I have to work. I’m ready for it. For sure it’s a big challenge–maybe the biggest one, because all the things that were going on (in) this tournament, (the) first Grand Slam of the year, (my) first final here….”

Wozniacki is also well aware of “all the things that were going on”–both for Halep and for her–earlier in this tournament. It is amazing that this is the final; obviously not according to the rankings, but based on the deficits faced and the number of match points stared down.

“Halep, just like me, was down match points early on in the tournament, has come back and fought her way,” Wozniacki noted. “I think it’s exciting because we’re both playing for the No. 1 ranking. Whoever wins on Saturday will be on the top of the rankings, which I think is a cool storyline. I’m just going to go out there and have fun; enjoy the moment. It’s been a great two weeks. I’m really happy to be there. As I said early on in the week, I could have been home already. But now I’m here and I fought my way all the way to the finals. I’m just really proud of that and really excited.”

Wozniacki is also 0-2 lifetime in Grand Slam finals (both at the U.S. Open), but she went up against a pair of legends in Kim Clijsters (2009) and Serena Williams (2014). Halep’s Roland Garros collapse against underdog Jelena Ostapenko last spring is something far more likely to be a factor on Saturday. Given Halep’s three physically-draining matches Down Under (two due to length and drama, the other because of an ankle injury), Wozniacki may have a slight edge in a couple different departments.

Pick: Wozniacki in 3

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36 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Halep vs. Wozniacki

  1. Halep in two. Wozniacki has had an extremely easy draw and has not yet been tested. Halep has much more offensive weapons and is the better returner. This will be haleps match to lose as caroline will rely strictly on defense and await the unforced errors. If Halep plays a clean match, this should be quick. Kerber was a much more difficult task than Caroline will be. Halep is playing lights out at the moment and I dont think anyone is stopping that.

  2. For some reason I’m rooting for Caroline, but my head is telling me Halep will win, probably in 2.
    But then this is WTA, which is notoriously hard to predict right?

    • Guesto c’mmon man, after I gave you my lengthy analysis as to why Woz will win and what WINNING BETS to bet, you are going with Halep and that too HALEP IN 2 SETS?

      Appalling!lol

      If Woz wouldn’t have made couple of metal mistakes in the 2nd set, Woz would have won in 2 sets like she won at the 2017 SINGAPORE WTA FINALS in 6-0,6-2. But I didn’t recommend Woz in 2 as I knew the kind of mistakes that Woz could do (she is a human after all) against a power hitter like Halep.

      • Roger this is why I rarely bet on WTA anymore, I usually get it wrong lol. Congrats to all those who picked Caroline. But they won 16 games each, so actually it’s a dead heat lol.

    • Denzel Washington!lol,

      Halep winning 2-0 is never happening even in the wildest dreams!

      Woz is not a low level ITF players to lose 2-0 to Halep! In which world are you in? Do you analyze Tennis matches scientifically ever? Are you a bookie trying to misguide the poor bettors and make them lose their rent,current,water bill etc. money?lol

      If anyone would have followed your blind picks (Halep winning 2-0) WITHOUT any SOLID analysis and gone BIG, would have LOST BIG and become bankrupt!lol

      That is why I have been asking people to post their SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS before posting your picks for a long time.

      Even a baby or any animal can pick one of the 2 opponents BLINDLY? Would you post such BLIND PICKS and make people bet on it?lol

  3. I wouldn’t mind seeing Wozniaki win, but I feel like Halep is a bit more clutch, and a bit more consistent. Hope it goes three, but picking Halep 2:0.

  4. Halep can win the 3rd set. I will be happy for her. She is playing well now.

    My 2nd big bet of OVER 22.5 games has/will hit soon! Who…Hoo…

  5. This match is crazy, break after break, what’s wrong with this ladies? 😂
    Please someone should hold serve 😂, my goodness if the men’s final is like this, it will be really exciting but crazy.

  6. As predicted in my reply to Guesto, Woz my baby wins the AO and is the NEW WORLD NO.1! WO….HOOOOO….

    Bet big on Woz in LB and won more moolah!

    Anyone here bet on Woz besides me? I think Ricky bet on Woz.

    Congrats Ricky on predicting a Woz win along with me.

    • Ahhh… Woozy baby did it, ahhh I am soooooooo happy 4 her, Congrats 2 my baby 🏆🏆🏆💪💪💪✌😂!

      Congrats to both player’s for fighting, this was a battle and they fans got more than what they paid for.

      Finally a Grand Slam, well done baby.

  7. Too bad Halep failed again, she is so much better player with varieties unlike Caroline who is one dimensional and serves like a wall and running like crazy. Took MTO clearly to distract Halep who had momentum is pathetic!
    Halep took out some serious contenders, Caroline had a cupcake draw. Feel sorry for Halep!
    But, surely, great achievement for Caroline, good for her…

    • Halep also took MTO in set two!

      Halep to me is the more one dimensional one! I remember in that FO final last year, she could only stay at the baseline to hit all day, no slices, no dropshot, no going to the net and that’s why she lost the power baseline game to Ostapenko, who simply overpowered her.

      Wozniacki played an aggressive game at WTA final last season and won there. She was not afraid to rush the net, to attack from there. I doubt Wozniacki is a one dimensional player, she might be in the past, she isn’t right now.

      • I agree, Lucky! Woz was overall the better player. Her draw might’ve been easier, but she showed up and played a great match in the final. And she showed already with her season end win last year that she’s back with a more powerful game.
        Kerber was the one with an absolute killer draw.

      • I disagree. Halep is more aggressive player now, she did not beat Kerber being defensive. Caroline is all about rallies and hitting hard. Credit to her for exhausting Halep. Halep had very difficult match with Kerber for whom I thought would win this AO. Halep had bad strategy to let herself being drugged into long rallies which cost her match in the end…credit to both players for this great match!

        • Halep is aggressive but one dimensional; she can hardly play at the net!

          Wozniacki was the one being aggressive in the first set and she was attacking by changing directions very well. However, as usual, she tends to have a lapse in second sets. Halep played better in the second set after taking the MTO.

          The last set was a slug fest and both didn’t hold serve that well, being broken several times. Halep was the more aggressive one in the third set, even though Wozniacki was the one leading in the third set until Halep surged ahead.

          Halep has to improve her game by adding in some new elements, like learn to play at the net, hits drop shots and changes the pace of her shots by slicing the ball.

          Her loss to Ostapenko last FO – she was overpowered by Ostapenko’s raw power; had she tried slicing the ball to slow down the pace giving her opponent a different look, instead of feeding her with pace, who knows, Ostapenko might make more errors.

          I saw Venus vs Ostapenko at WTA finals; Venus was able to deal with Ostapenko’s hard hitting. Venus used her varieties to deal with Ostapenko’s hard hitting and it paid off.

  8. It’s starting to get to get uncomfortable with how badly I feel for Simona… We are headed for Jana Novotna round 2 (r.i.p.), except I can’t help but think about how insanely, unbearably sad it would be for Simona to end her career having never gotten across that finish line the was way Novotna did…

    • I also feel very bad for Simona! But I would’ve felt equally bad for Wozniacki, too, who had been in slam finals before and had been derided for never winning a slam. And I felt bad for Kerber who had match points in her semi against Halep.
      The truth is that this year all those players would’ve deserved to win the trophy.
      I have no idea if Halep will ever cross the finish line. Her size is clearly a disadvantage and she may not have the qualities of a Justine Henin who scored quite a few wins over the so called Big Babes with her intelligent game.

  9. What a great women’s tournament! This has been one of the most interesting women’s slam event in years! What a fairy tale ending for Wozniacki. And after almost a year we have again a No1 who managed to win a slam. I feel bad for Halep, though. She would’ve equally deserved the win. She really is a bit disadvantaged because of her size, but has shown a lot of grit and endurance, too.
    I’m also glad that Angie Kerber found a way out of her slump and showed that maybe her incredible 2016 season wasn’t such a fluke after all. She came back stronger I expect her to do well this year. There wasn’t much difference between three of the four semi finalists. They all played a few incredible matches and could’ve won the trophy. I hope that inspires them for the rest of the season.
    Let’s see where Serena Williams will fit into this new order. Her power and her fighting spirit shoud never be underestimated, but I don’t think she will find it easy to dominate as in earlier times.
    This season could be very intriguing because some players finally show stabil results and a lot of mental resilience. It would be nice if players like Stephens and Muguruza could find a way out of their roller coaster rides.
    As to those who bemoan women’s much higher rate of breaks: this is not necessarily a sign of mental weakness. Since most women don’t serve as hard as men for many physical reasons the serve doesn’t have the same role as in the men’s game. Therefore breaks are easier to come by. Women who have developed a powerful serve have therefore a great advantage as the dominance of Serena Williams clearly shows. But it’s of course not enough to be a powerful server if other elements of the game like movement and tactics don’t add up. Sabine Lisicki who used to have one of the most powerful serves is a negative example.
    Is it too much to ask for a great men’s final, too. tomorrow? As we have discussed yeasterday the men’s tournament has been a total dud so far. I don’t expect much from tomorrow’s match. But at least Cilic said he’s in good physical shape and doesn’t have any blisters! He has no excuse, lol!

  10. Yeah, a very good and exciting women’s final!

    While I’m happy for Wozniacki, I feel sorry for Halep. I feel she’ll have her chances at the FO this year as long as she stays fit and healthy. She seems injury prone, quite sad if that prevents her from winning seven matches to win a slam.

    I hope the men’s final will be exciting too, please no repeat of that Wimbledon final of last year; I really can’t trust Cilic, just don’t know which version of him will come out to play in the final.

  11. Great women’s final! Lots of heart, wonderful defense, great offense on both sides. Happy for Caro, kinda felt this might be her last shot at a slam title. Halep’s playing very well and looking tough. She should have a great chance to win RG this year.

    Such a war of attrition then the end seemed to come so suddenly – wait, championship point?!? Already?

  12. Congrats to Caro!

    I would have been happy for either of them and sad for the other but I was rooting for Caro because she’s had the longer wait.

    Great match and amazing depth from Caro’s shots with great defence.

    Halep was the more aggressive player but a few too many errors.

    Much better match than tomorrows dud.

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