Australian Open expert picks continue with Day 6, when Kei Nishikori may have another five-set battle on his hands. The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Mert Ertunga of Mertov’s Tennis Desk preview the action and make their predictions.
(21) David Goffin vs. (15) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: Goffin has been snakebitten by injuries dating back to the spring of 2017 and he really hasn’t been the same since February of last year. Medvedev, on the other hand, has only been skyrocketing over the past few seasons. The Russian captured three titles in 2018, finished runner-up to Kei Nishikori earlier this month in Brisbane, and has rolled so far in Melbourne. Based on current form, this is going to be one-way traffic for the most part. Medvedev in 4: 6-4, 7-5, 2-6, 6-2.
Mert: Goffin has not offered much to be optimistic about of late, but he knows how to navigate through first weeks of majors. Plus, he can strike back the flat hits by Medvedev with the same velocity and flatness. I have a feeling, though, that is exactly what Medvedev wants. He has played brilliantly in the first two matches here, although the competition turned out a bit soft to be frank. I am picking him not because of this week, but rather because of his steady (and scary) improvement over the last 12 months. Medvedev in 3: 6-4, 7-6, 6-4.
Joao Sousa vs. (8) Kei Nishikori Ricky: Sousa went five sets against tough opponents Guido Pella and Philipp Kohlschreiber. Nothing could be less surprising. Nishikori also needed five in each of his first two rounds; first against an unknown Polish qualifier whose name I’m too lazy to look up the spelling of; that was shocking. Then he went five with Ivo Karlovic; not as stunning, but certainly unexpected. Sousa is in outstanding form right now, so sound the upset alert. But he better get it done in four, because Nishikori’s five-set record is the stuff of legend. Sousa in 4: 7-5, 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(8).
Mert: Both men have played 10 sets, most of them grueling. Both players are prone to push each other from corner-to-corner from the baseline. I am predicting the chances of this match ending without an injury-related retirement at only 70 percent, maybe even lower if it extends beyond three hours. Having said that, Nishikori has more firepower than Sousa does and will surely make him cover more ground than he does. Kei can also step inside the court and take balls earlier than his opponent if necessary. I see a close baseline battle for two sets, with Joao fading away late in the match. Nishikori in 4: 7-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-1.[polldaddy poll=10216399]
(12) Fabio Fognini vs. (23) Pablo Carreno Busta
Ricky: In perhaps the most bizarre head-to-head history that no one pays attention to, Carreno Busta is sweeping Fognini 5-0. That has to be noted…but it can probably be at least somewhat discounted. They faced each other twice in 2017 (the best year of PCB’s career) and haven’t met since. Now it is Fognini who has been on fire for 12 straight months, while the Spaniard has slipped down the rankings. The Italian is simply too good at the moment. Fognini in 4: 6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 7-5.
Mert: Carreno Busta is one of the more consistent performers in men’s tennis, and precisely the type of player that can annoy Fognini. He will force Fabio to come up with not one, but two more spectacular shots to win points. I see the Italian eventually putting on display his full array of shot-making to put Carreno Busta away. The question is, will he remain disciplined enough to do it for a couple of sets in a row? Also, did I just use “discipline” in relation to Fognini? I think he can, and he may only need to do so for a couple of sets anyway. Rocky start for Fabio, but then he will get it together. Fognini in 4: 2-6, 7-5, 7-6, 6-1.
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