Australian Open expert picks continue with Day 7, when Rafael Nadal continues his fortnight against familiar foe Tomas Berdych. The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Pete Ziebron of Tennis Acumen preview the action and make their predictions.
Tomas Berdych vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: The eye test would suggest that Berdych is the prototypical player who would consistently give Nadal all kinds of trouble. He is a huge ball-striker who serves big, hits everything hard and flat, and can combat the Spaniard’s heavy topspin with both his height and his two-handed backhand. Unfortunately for Berdych, reality is much, much different. He is 4-19 lifetime in the head-to-head series and a shocking 1-18 in their last 19 meetings. Additional bad news for the Czech is that Nadal no longer looks vulnerable like he did heading into the tournament. The world No. 2 has bludgeoned three straight Aussie opponents–including Alex de Minaur–all in straight sets. Berdych is in outstanding form, too, but he hasn’t faced anyone like Nadal during his comeback from a back injury. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-2.
Pete: Berdych has reached the quarterfinalist in seven of his last eight Australian Open appearances, including back-to-back semifinal berths four and five years ago. Absent for the second half of last season, it was somewhat of a mystery of what to expect from the Czech to begin 2019. Similarly, it also seemed like a possibility that Nadal might not be able to play his best this year in Melbourne. Through three rounds, both players have combined to lose one set and Berdych has dispatched two seeded players to boot. Despite four trips to the final, Nadal has managed to win the AO only once, 10 years ago. Early results indicate that he is a serious contender this time around and Berdych will be his toughest test so far this fortnight. Despite the fact that they have played 23 times, these seasoned veterans last met more than 40 months ago. All four of Berdych’s wins in the series have come on hard courts, but this fact will mean little as Nadal continues his fine form and advances to the quarterfinals. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-4, 7-5.
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France Tiafoe vs. (20) Grigor Dimitrov
Ricky: There is no longer any doubt in my mind that Tiafoe is the real deal. He was awesome against Kevin Anderson in round two and found that same form just in time to win the last two sets against Andreas Seppi for the first five-set win of his career. Perhaps even more impressive is Tiafoe’s mentality and determination that has been on display en route to his first “second week” appearance at a slam. He will need all of that and more against Dimitrov, who is once again playing his best tennis Down Under. In any other setting I might lean toward the American, but the Bulgarian is a proven force in Melbourne–and everywhere else in Australia, for that matter. Dimitrov survived their only previous encounter 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(4) last summer in Toronto and another thriller should be in the cards. Dimitrov in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2, 6-3.
Pete: Dimitrov has played well Down Under the last two years, reaching the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively. Two years ago he won 14 of his first 15 matches plus two titles and was arguably the hottest player on tour for the first month and a half. The Bulgarian has tended to play his best tennis to begin the year and despite a few less than stellar performances this season, he finds himself in the fourth round. Tiafoe had just five wins in 11 major appearances when he arrived in Melbourne. His second-round upset of Anderson and come-from-behind win over Seppi in the third round have propelled the young American into unchartered territory on the on of the biggest stages in tennis. Tiafoe will bring his fearless brand of tennis to the court once again in hopes of parlaying this run into the quarters but it will fall a bit short this time against the more experienced Dimitrov. Dimitrov in 5: 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-3.
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I like Tsitsi’s spirit. He’s a fighter. Plays with a ‘star aura’ already. Fed is just too old. Would have won it in 3 or 4 in his best years.
See, that’s why I like him and he’s my second fave. I see the potential in him – his fighting spirit like Rsfa’s; his movement and ball striking like Fed; his looks like Borg; what’s not to like about him?
I just hope he remains humble and hardworking and doesn’t become complacent.
Lucky,it would be incredible Tsitsi to become our new idol after Fedal retire.
I like Zverev too! Just needs to be a bit more consistent, and a little tweaking of the attitude
Tstsipas beats his hero. I’m so happy for him. Good speech – smart kid. hahah I remember why like him.
Could use a haircut.
RBA is an ironman. But I hope Tsitsipas can make it past him. Tsitsi’s little bro in tears – aw.
Tsitsi is very likeable so far. Hope all this doesn’t spoil him. Fed’s ranking took a big hit. Wonder if he’ll play some clay this year? I thought his early (for him) losses at Wimbledon and USO last year were mostly really bad luck but he got outplayed tonight.
Well done! This was such an impressive win. Roger had a bad day but Tsis was amazing. What a complete package!
I don’t bet but one of my mates here keeps asking for betting tips. I advised him to bet on Tsis and he just messaged to say thanks and said I know way too much about this sport lol.
Jokes aside, I do think he’ll meet Rafa in the semis and that would be a cracker. I have Rafa reaching the final.
RBA will beat him
If RBA beats Tsitsi he’ll get my Ironman Award for the decade!
It’s only natural that Fed at his age is going to lose more and more at the slams. He’s already incredible to have won three slams at age 35/36, and ranked in top two for so long.
It’ll be interesting to see how far Tsitsipas will progress in his career, how much he will achieve, and whether he’ll have greater achievements than say his peer Sasha Zverev in the future.
Fed has said he will play on clAy this year in his presser
@Sanju,
Thanks for the info! I really think he must to maintain his ranking in the Top 10.
Eugene was right when she said one of the top 3 will trip before qf..
How do you guys see tiafoe n tsitsipas for rafa ?
Btw fed said in his presser he has massive regrets about this match.
Eugene is a ‘he’. No problem sanju 🙂
I’m disappointed with Dimi; I thought he would play well enough to beat Tiafoe in four or five sets. Each year, he’s doing worse than the previous, from SF in 2017 to QF in 2018 and now R4 in 2019.
He’s only 27, yet it seems that his career is on the downward slope. After winning at Cincy and WTF in 2017, it’s like he had already reached his peak! Not looking good that he’s being beaten by a younger inexperienced guy at a slam.
That is sad ricky if you have tsitsipas losing to agut..no way…I want him to meet rafa….that could be a cracker …
Bautista is running on fumes…hasn’t he played like 3 five setters already…tsitsipas too has played a lot…long 3.5 hr plus matchea
Tsitsi would be a gift for Rafa. I don’t think he can maintain that level in the semis or final. Would be glad to be wrong on that. He played as a finalist today.
At this moment, theoretically it looks like Rafa’s draw to the final represents a big opportunity. I mean Tiafoe and then Rba/Tsitsi… to reach the final, could you ask for a better draw? But that’s just on paper…
Well, Rafa has always played with more confidence against his old “patients” with whom he played numerous matches than against young guns. His draw doesn’t look easy at all. These youngsters will go for broke. At his age it’s not only that Rafa needs to win it’s the length of the match and the intensity which matters if he wants to be strong in the next match! I believe these young guns. although lacking experience, are dangerous. Tsitsipas fired 20 aces against his idol and never looked back. Both he and Tiafoe will be ready to die on the court…Rafa knows he will have to be focused and serving well!
Vamos Champ!
Rafa is always focused and takes every opponent seriously. So far he’s been serving well too. Has not been broken. But he also has not played a great returner this year. I think things have gone as well as could be hoped for. It’s about time Rafa caught some breaks at the AO!
Tsitsis backhand will not hold against rafa. It is too loopy.
Tsitsipas is the best young gen player and by a distance. He is Fed’s mirror image with a fast serve, hope people don’t shame Fed by quoting Dimitrov as baby Fed. Him beating Fed in his first meeting tells me that he has the belief to do it on a big stage. I don’t think Fed played bad. Served very well, lost the second set after having break/set points and after that it was always going to be tough, hung in there, but the Greek guy just had too much firepower from the back. Second set was the key for Fed. Yes, in his young days, Fed would have won, but the Greek has the game to trouble anyone.
Tsitsipas showed his potential in Canadian Open I guess where he went on a roll, beat Djoker on his way to final without losing his serve something which happened only once with Djoker in a three set match. His run in Canada reminded me of Djoker’s run in 2007 in Canada as well. Would not be surprised if he does become the first of young gen to win a major.
Tsitsipas is the best young talent in a while. Last one was quite some time back (Djoker it was).
Sasha Zverev. Looking forward to matches between them. Zverev has been in the top 5 of the rankings for 2 years now and that’s without doing well at the majors. Rafa said Sascha will start doing well at the majors, he’s very good and there’s no reason he can’t. And Rafa is the best tennis analyst I “know”. (Sorry, Ricky, but Rafa has the great advantage of playing these guys!)
Let Sasha have a win against top 4 in majors first. He is going more towards Dimitrov way . He is an embarrassment in majors.
I hope he is not called Next-gen after 3-4 years as well just like Dimi is still termed as an “upcoming” player even now at the age of 27.
I woke up this morning to find out that Tsitsipas won! Wow! I was trying to watch the match, but it was 3:00 in the morning. I remember thinking if only Rafa could get a break and either Fed or Novak got knocked out, then it might be better. But I honestly did not expect Tsitsi to beat him. I am going to watch the rerun on the tennis channel because I have to see this young guy get the win.
Fed has done well to win slams in his mid thirties, but time is finally running out for him. The next gen is knocking on the door.
I get nervous when we get to the quarterfinals. I don’t know what to expect with Tiafoe in the semis. He showed that conditioning is taking a toll on him since he has not gone deep in a slam with these five set matches. I think Dimi’s best days are behind him.
Tiafoe will come out with nothing to lose and go for everything. Rafa has never played him. As I said with DeMinaur, Rafa has the experience, court craft and strategy and fitness to take it to Tiafoe. Now Rafa could face two young guys back-to-back.
Omg… I was almost in tears watching Tiafoe in his post-match press conference. This dude came UP from the bottom. Such an unbelievable story of hard work and determination to bring a better life for him and his family. Even if he never makes another slam QF (which I doubt he won’t), he has seriously achieved what we in the USA would call “the American Dream”. Just amazing.
As for the tennis side of things, I honestly NEVER would have imagined that he would make a slam QF anytime soon… I’ve just always felt like his game is just too undeveloped at his age to do anything of note at a major. I’m still not very confident in his game, but he clearly has a level of fight and toughness that I NEVER saw coming!!
That being said, I would be downright SHOCKED if Tiafoe managed to take even a set off of Rafa. For one thing, Moya confirmed the other day that Rafa RELISHES in taking on these young bucks. But also, Rafa is just a whoooole other beast than anyone Tiafoe has faced thus far. When these young guys gave Rafa, they just don’t even know what hit them because they’ve rarely faced anyone with the level of heavy, high-bouncing topspin that Rafa delivers, and he’s usually just too relentless in his power for them.
Again, I would be very surprised if Tiafoe can make this match even competitive, and I would be absolutely shocked if he managed to beat Rafa at a major given his young age and inexperience.
I’d be surprised if Tiafoe got more than 3 or 4 points in the match total – I see it like 61,63,60. It will be a great experience for Francis. He’ll be pretty starstruck I think, since he’s never played Rafa before.
POINTS?!??!?!
I kinda think he meant GAMES 🙂
I would not assume that Tiafoe will come out and be slaughtered by Rafa. I don’t think Rafa thinks that will happen. Tiafoe has had a breakout tournament here. He beat Andrrson, Seppi and Dimitrov. He is in the quarterfinals if a slam. He will come out with nothing to lose, no pressure at all. He will go for his shots. Rafa and Tiafoe have never played each other before. Dark horses can be dangerous.
Rafa will need to use his experience, tactical genius, savvy and fierce mental strength to deal with this young man. I would not carelessly write him off and neither will Rafa.
This is where Rafa needs to raise his level of play for each match. I expect him to do just that.