A semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal was not entirely unexpected when the World Tour Finals draw was revealed. But the script took a twist in making the matchup come to fruition, as Nadal won his group while Djokovic finished second in the other foursome.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 46th time in their careers when they collide in the World Tour Finals semis on Saturday afternoon.
Interestingly, Djokovic has a chance to level his head-to-head series against both Nadal and Federer this weekend–the latter in a potential title match. The world No. 1 is 22-23 lifetime in his rivalry with Nadal, but the margin has become increasingly closer on a consistent basis. Djokovic has won all three of their meetings in 2015 and seven of their last eight overall. He is 15-6 at Nadal’s expense on hard courts, including 3-2 indoors and 2-1 at the O2 Arena.
“We (have) played so many times,” Djokovic assured. “I’m going to get ready for that one and hopefully I’ll be able to play at my best.”
Djokovic’s best has been on display almost entirely throughout what will go down as a dominant and historic 2015 campaign, which features three Grand Slam titles. During round-robin action this week, however, the top seed did not showcase the same level. After crushing Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer 7-5, 6-2 and underwhelmed in a 6-3, 7-5 victory over Tomas Berdych on Thursday night.
Aside from his two most recent matches, however, there is little to dislike regarding Djokovic’s chances heading into championship weekend. He is 80-6 for the season and is the three-time defending champion of this event.
Nadal has never won the year-end championship, but he has already done something this week that he had only accomplished once previously in his career. For the first time since 2010, the fifth-ranked Spaniard compiled a perfect 3-0 record in group competition. He drubbed Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-2, rolled over Andy Murray 6-4, 6-1, and outlasted David Ferrer 6-7(2), 6-3, 6-4 on Friday afternoon.
As well has Nadal has played, the relatively suddenly improvement in form is more likely to pay eventual dividends in 2016 than on Saturday against the toughest of opponents. Facing Djokovic on an indoor hard court–even a slow one–is simply not a good matchup for the 14-time major champion. Having spent two hours and 37 minutes on the court with Ferrer, while Djokovic had the day off, also will not help.
As Nadal said of his opponent, “All the positive things are for him.”
Pick: Djokovic in 2
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congrats to Nole’s fans!
Nole played brilliant tennis today…Rafa outplayed in every corner…Novak is in Rafa’s head…otherwise it would have been closer…Rafa is getting there…it’s certainly better than 6:2 6:2…
Vamos Rafa!
Rafa will be disappointed with his game today. Novak hardly put a foot wrong and when Rafa had half a chance he flunked it. I’m sure he’ll work hard befor the next season starts.
Vamos Rafa!
Rafa can never beat Novak again not even on clay thank u uncle tony
Rafa won all his matches but yet failed to make it to the final what is the point what a disappointing end to the year hope he does one serious thinking in the off season bcosnext year won’t get any easier!!
I do feel with regret, that Toni has wasted a piece of fine material in his hands by not maximising its full potential. Its a pity, for I feel Rafa could do better than what he is doing now and what he has already achieved.
Of course that’s not to say Rafa is doing poorly in his career; what he has achieved is already phenomenal by any standard esp on clay and Toni should take some credit for that. We as fans are feeling that Rafa should and could do better than what he’s doing and achieving now; however, Rafa may not think the same way and he most probably would be thankful to Toni for helping in making him the successful player that he is now.
Hopefully they really can come out with a good strategy to deal with Novak despite the limitations that they have , ie Rafa’s almost non existence BHDTL, not so great serve and returns, and now not so quick movements.
The O2 has never been, and i doubt ever will be, where Rafa has been comfortable.
But if was disappointing to see him hand the match to Djokovic in that manner. I just hope and pray this doesn’t sap his fragile confidence.
TBH Ed I don’t think that it will. Still a good week overall. He lost this match between the ears and he’s still two steps forward with just one step back.
Rafa doesn’t need to change his game drastically. He needs his 2014 AO level back before he hurt his back.
His problem continues to be mental but it’s slowly improving.
A guy like Cahill would have him improved at a faster rate.
Thanks Hawks for those encouraging words. It was disappointing at the time but with perspective not surprising. There was never going to be a quick-fix solution to the problems he has been facing for the best part of two years. Most people think the answer is to change the coaching set up but i’ve never believed that is the answer. It would be against his nature and could just as easily be counter productive. Too many cooks spoil the broth and all that.
i know I’m swimming against the current here but in my view Rafa has to be allowed to do it his way with the help of the people he trusts. You, Chloro and myself are told we are armchair psychologists and thus not qualified to pass an opinion on what might have been the cause of the slump in his performance. But lack of coaching qualifications does not prevent a large number of people from holding very firm views and passing judgement on what Rafa needs to do and who he should appoint to help him do it. Just saying.
l
I agree that it’s against his nature and could be counter productive but his nature is partially responsible for where he is now and he has to be willing to try new things to fix his main problem. Progress is too slow. His funk started two years ago.
It’s time for a change or perish.
ed251137 says:
November 21, 2015 at 6:23 pm
—You, Chloro and myself are told we are armchair psychologists and thus not qualified to pass an opinion…—
===
.
Opinion? I don’t know who you are writing about, but as for me, I have written: “Armchair doctors have NO right to deliver a DIAGNOSIS to other people!”
If my memory serves me correctly. other posters have written the same. (Evidences are available in the Grandstand archives if you wish to see them.) Hawk has given Rafa a DIAGNOSIS!
I have given a personal opinion which someone thinks is a diagnosis.
Listen up people, do you hear there?
Rafans focus on Rafa and pretenders focus on Rafans with nothing to add about Rafa’s game or tennis.
And it makes me wonder.
The match stats, Part 1:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUWJ7HZVEAAQ5a1.png
🙁 🙁
The match stats, Part 2:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUWJ-5uUkAIcQI0.png
ed,
Yes, I am one who believes that we cannot diagnose Rafa’s problem from our armchairs. However, that is not the same as saying that no one has a right to say what they think. I may disagree, but people are entitled to say what they think. That is always the case.
We all have different ideas and thoughts about what Rafa should do. Some think he needs a new coach. You think that could actually create problems. Some thing he needs a sports psychologist or someone trained to deal with anxiety or loss of confidence in competitive match play.
I don’t know that anyone is right or wrong. When it’s all said and done, I know that for myself I want Rafa to be able to compete with Novak and take it to him and win. I pretty much knew that this match might be a bridge too far at this time, but I was truly hoping that Rafa would at least make a match of it. That did not happen and it was painful to see Rafa being bossed around the court with Novak virtually toying with him.
One more thought. I am inclined to agree with hawkeye that Rafa must make certain changes or perish. We can disagree on what changes should be made, but clearly he needs to do something. We’ve seen other players do exactly that. Fed got the bigger racket and let Annacone go and brought in Stefan Edberg. He’s also got this SABR, but I don’t know that it’s been all that effective. He has become even more aggressive with his game.
Novak brought in BB and initially was the subject of ridicule. But it seems to have paid off. He also used a sports psychologist and the gluten diet to help him improve. After Novak lost to Rafa at the 2010 USO, he realized that something had to be done if he wanted to challenge him. He made adjustments and changes. So has Murray in bringing in someone new after adding Mauresmo. I believe that Murray has a psychiatrist or some other professional on his team.
Changes are necessary as a player ages in order to remain competitive. Rafa seems resistant to any change, but I think hawkeye put his finger on it. There is no other choice.
That is unusual. Rafa actually won more second serve points than Novak in this match. But all one has to do is look at the percentage of first serve points won – 54%! Compared to Novak winning 89% of first serves.
Not enough winners from Rafa. But look at Novak’s winners to UE’s. He had 20 UE’s in this match.
Yes, time for the sad face. 🙁
rafa had 4 forehand winners and nole 10 – that has been the story of the whole year…
rafa has developed an amazingly complex relationship with his forehand..if it starts to go off he loses confidence in his whole game and seems to lose the ability to think on court
amy,
Sorry, I just posted the same thing about those stats without seeing your post!
hey dont worry!! those stats do stand out
in any case, congrats to nole fans…especially to ratcliff who isn’t here right now…
nole has had a great year and is doing special things on court
I think the second set of stats is also revealing. Novak had 10 forehand winners and 9 backhand winners to Rafa’s 4 forehand winners and 1 backhand winner. Also, Novak was winning the longer rallies.
That was clinical, nearly close to perfection game from Djokovic. Nadal didn’t play badly, but he needed to pull out something extra special to win today and he didn’t have the guns for it today. Remember this is indoor, the worst surface from Nadal. As Djokovic just said in the post-match interview, they adjust their games to the surface. It might be a bit more competitive next year on clay etc.. Something Nadal could have done better today is start better on his serve. He should be able to serve first serves from word GO on that crucial first service game.
Also, Nadal should deal better with the drop shots given by Djokovic. Djokovic is probably one of the best drop shot player of the game, but Nadal did reach the ball every time but played the wrong shot straight on Djokovic who then lobs him. This is not the first time I see Djokovic lobbing Nadal after drop shotting Nadal. He does it again and again and again in every match.
Also, Nadal completely stopped playing down the line forehands in the second set. And he should try to be more patient with the rallies, with his forehand: he had played some amazing forehands that Djokovic’s amazing defence has put back, causing Nadal to miss the next shot. Nadal should be used to this resilience and expect to hit 5, 10 , 15 amazing shots in a row against Djokovic.
Finally Nadal could have returned better. He didn’t put enough pressure on Djokovic’s serve who held comfortably a lot of the time.
All this said, this was one of the best performances of Djokovic against Nadal. He got the tactics right.
But I wouldn’t be worried for Nadal. I can see him improving further more in the off-season. He will probably work on serves and consistency in serving, and I really hope he learns how to deal with these drop shots thrown at him.
1) Rafa couldnt return better because of the way Novak serves. He simply couldnt get a good read on it.
2) Rafa’s serve is his own main problem this tournament. I cant imagine what happened to Rafa’s serve. Its no point practising it well but couldnt serve well in a match and when under pressure. Where has Rafa’s good enough (though not great) serve gone?
3) Rafa seems to lose some power on his FH. He has to flatten his FH and adds in some power in order to succeed on HC. Novak hits a flatter FH and has more pace and depth on it, Rafa doesnt have the pace due to more spin put in.
4) Novak has read Rafa’s game like a book, knows exactly how Rafa returns the drop shots, how he serves, how he rallies etc.
5) Rafa is not going to beat Novak playing the same old way. Its not that Rafa doesnt want to come forward, he’s not allowed to by Novak; without a good enough serve, he couldnt move forward at will too.
6) Rafa is always camping at his BH corner, things never change so Novak, even Ferrer, has/have successes against him by attacking Rafa’s FH corner. Its strange that despite all these, Rafa is still doing the same thing, ie still camping at his BH corner and allowing his opponents to attack his FH. He’s now no longer that quick to cover his FH corner, something he has to come to terms with and not refusing to accept as truth.
7) Novak tries as much as possible to step inside the court to dictate play and he’s usually at the centre of the baseline dictating play and direction of the ball. Rafa couldnt do that.
8) Rafa just couldnt take the ball early the way that Kei could. He waits for the ball to come to him, that gives his opponent time to come forward and as a result Rafa feels rushed. Novak, Kei and Ferrer can just do that to Rafa on the HCs.
Rafa’s game is made for clay. He has to move out of his comfort zone if he wants to compete and beat the other top players on the HCs. I think he should concentrate on clay and plays less on the HCs if he’s not going to change the way he plays on the HCs. He’s not getting any younger, time to pick and choose what he should play to get the best results.
Luckystar, agree with you on Novak reading Nadal’s game like a book. Also, you’re so right about Nadal being late on covering his FH corner and on him giving so much time to Djokovic to adjust and hit the shot he wants.
Im very disappointed with the way Rafa played this match and the Ferrer match. From these two matches i can see that Rafa just couldnt deal with aggressive play on the HCs. In the past he could by being quicker, more powerful and more confident and at the top of his game, not so now. He even allowed Ferrer to dictate play on the HCs!
He didnt serve well, even though first serve % was 70, he’s not winning many of those. Without a good serve he’s not going to win the big prizes on the HCs. Im now resigned to the fact that Rafa will never win the WTF.
He’s now owned by Novak yet again! After fighting so hard to turn things over, Novak has now surge ahead again. The H2H levels now, and Novak owns Rafa on the HCs, 16-7, more than Rafa owns him on clay at 14-6! Rafa better concentrates on clay and tries to gain some grounds there. Its really a terrible feeling for Rafa and his fans, to see Novak toying with him and finishing him off so easily without even breaking sweat.
never winning the WTF is inconsequential. He needs to worry about adding to his slam count.
^This! That’s the issue. If Rafa cannot find a way to challenge Novak and be competitive, then he cannot win another slam. That’s what I was thinking as I watched the match. He must find the answers when it comes to Novak.
+1 to that. However it is Rafa’s worst year and Novak’s best. Anyway things cannot get any worse
Could be much worse for Rafa.
lucky,
In your last sentence you said what I was feeling while watching the match. Even the tennis channel commentators were saying something similar about Novak toying with Rafa. Novak didn’t even have to play great because Rafa did not push him or challenge him.
I felt that Novak would win today, but really hoped that Rafa could at least make it competitive. Again, it’s the way Rafa lost.
Such a shame Rafans were not allowed his victory over Stan but were being told that it was due to Stan not trying. I feel sad about that.
Vamos Rafa!
Listen up people, do you hear there?
Rafans focus on Rafa and pretenders focus on Rafans.
And it makes me wonder.
Such a shame Rafans were not allowed to enjoy his victory over Stan…………..
it’s the ROS that did the whole damage…Nole’s ROS is amazing and with it he just takes control of the point whether it’s Rafa’s first or second serve…Rafa being less confident of his own game did not help either…I think this match is way better than Beijing…Rafa was wining points on Novak’s serve in the first set…but at crucial moments Rafa would make an unusual error (or to be precise an error “usual for 2015”) or Nole would just implement a great serve to bail him out…
Rafa is in the right track…too bad he did not get to meet Fed this time cause I believe he would have beaten him or would have been close to beating him…it would make it clear that it’s only Nole Rafa needs to figure out how to beat…he certainly is back when other players are concerned…that is a very good prospect for 2016…
Nats gets it.
Rafa’s serve is simply not good enough. Novak couldnt do that to Fed or Stan for example because both of them have better serves than Rafa’s.
I feel Rafa was playing better at Beijing, at least Novak couldnt toy with him there. Novak had to take risk there, painting the lines to win points against Rafa. Rafa was also serving better there and he was more aggressive. I think the difference is Rafa at Beijing was playing freely with no expectations, here at London, after winning all RR matches to reach the SF, he may harbor some hopes of winning. He’s certainly more tight in this match, not serving well made things worse.
Was Novak playing better in this matcb than at Beijing? I feel Novak also played better at Beijing; here he wasnt even being pushed and so he neednt even play all that well.
Both Rafa and Nole won higher percentage on the second serve in this match than in Beijing…total points won for both players where exactly the same in that Beijing match and today 41% for Rafa and 50% for Nole…the only difference is in the return statistics where Rafa was just bellow par today: 11% 1st return points won vs. 39% 2nd return points won for Rafa whereas in Beijing it was 30% vs 50% respectively…
I think Novak played brilliant match today…painting the lines and serving better than in his previous matches…he was too good for Rafa but Rafa is getting closer…
Like I previously said on another thread, Nole will toy with Rafa, if he didn’t improve his service.
More than that, their recent matches have also showed evidence of Nole preempting every shot of Rafa as if he knows Rafa’s game plan inside out.
Even today, Nole had almost anticipated every shot and every serve even before Rafa had set himself for the shot. Novak looked around 2 steps ahead throughout the match.
All this points to one and one thing only : Rafa’s plan has become too predictable. Serving with more power or more consistent FH alone will not solve the issue. He needs to break his pattern of play. For starter, I would like Rafa to follow almost every alternate down the T serve with a S&V approach esp on the deuce court. Secondly, can go for flat serves on his 2nd serves esp. when in 0-30 or 15-30 hole. Thirdly, 2 or 3 consecutive sliced BH’s to Nole’s FH.
The only thing that troubles Nole is the unpredictability of his opponent’s game. That’s why Fed and Stan have troublem him more in the recent times. They don’t have set or favourable patterns of serves or groundstrokes, always changing the pace and direction of the ball.
Absolutely agree on Novak anticipating Nadal’s game! Even as I was watching, I felt I knew where Nadal was playing his shots! Plus his slices today were completely inoffensive, I have the feeling every time Nadal uses the slice against Djokovic in a rally, the chances he has of winning it is 2 %, specially when he hits them like he did today. Reminds me of US Open 2011 final for some reason.
Incorrect.
This was far from Rafa’s best game.
yep…Rafa was bellow par today…he just was not ready for Nole…his statements before the match indicated that he never believed he could win…and that’s enough said…
I think he will take positives from the week as he should.
14 times GS champion is absolutely outclassed. He needs to climb mountain to recover his deficit playing Nole.
By next year Novak might have 13 to 14 slams. Who would be greater player by then.
And your point is??
Yes, I did think that Novak was ready for every shot from Rafa as if he knew what was coming. Rafa has become way too predictable with his shot patterns. Novak anticipated everything and had the answers.
As it’s been said here, Rafa’s camp don’t have any answers against Novak. It’s completely nonsensical because Fed is showing the way and still they come up with the same game plan over and over.. Novak is the reason why Nadal’s tennis brain went into overdrive and if he doesn’t find an answer (I think he needs to add someone else in the mix case clearly U. Toni isn’t helping) he might as well be content with maybe winning RG again if Novak is out for some reason.
just met the legend vamosrafa
epic!!only good thing about today so far….
A true and real Rafan.
Then your day is now complete! 🙂
Pictures?!
Vamos has one
If you see Benny say hi from augusta and me.
LOL… was great to meet you , Ricky!
Vamos Ricky and Vamos Tenngrand!
The game plan is fine but the execution is poor.
With rafa playing like this against Nole, h2h in 2 years time may become 23-30.
He would stop playing than continue like this for another two years IMO.
hawkeye,
I don’t agree. Novak knew exactly where Rafa was going to hit his shots and he was ready. I do think that Rafa has become too predictable. Novak’s ROS has been a formidable weapon for which Rafa does not have the answers.
Looking at some of the rallies, it was clear that Rafa couldn’t hang in there with Novak. He seemed to always be on defense running from one end of the court to the other. Novak got the good court positioning and was able to stand there and hit shots to each corner of the court. The stats show that Rafa was losing more of the longer rallies in this match.
Execution was poor, but the game plan wasn’t good either.
Well we can disagree but at least we can talk about Rafa’s game and tennis where others can’t.
He made too many mental unforced errors that he would have made before and it’s not physical.
He needs to address this before he can get execute any real changes to his game.
Sincerest commiserations to all Rafans. To Rafa…Vamos!
hawkeye,
Of course! Always! 🙂
I like the post-match analysis and discussion. I get to read other people’s thoughts and ideas about what happened. That helps me a lot!
Do you think that the forehand not working was mental? Because lucky and others have noticed that Rafa isn’t hitting it with as much power as he has in the past. Also the serve!
I guess that Rafa regresses when he faces Novak these days. He doesn’t have the confidence that he has regained once he’s on the court with Novak. I feel that he has lost the match before it has begun.
Yes lack of confidence is the main reason for not trusting his shots, lost accuracy and therefore loss in power to compensate.
Mental unforced errors are the result of not being able to execute
Rafa, unlike Novak, has a weaker wing and so he’s busy running from left to right or right to left just to cover the weaker wing. Stan is solid ftom both wings and so Novak couldnt dictate play against Stan the way he could vs Rafa. Even Fed is better than Rafa now at both wings!
Rafa’s serve has become such a liability that each time he serves, I’m so worried that his opponent would get a direct return winner. Without a good serve, its hard for him to dictate play or at least play his service game on his own terms. He’s trying to play more inside the court but couldnt time his FH well and hence all those netted FH.
Its still WIP for Rafa. I do feel once he can solve the serve issue and time his FH better, he can then execute a more aggressive game plan on the HCs. There are so many things that Rafa should and could improve besides his serve – his BH DTL, backhand ROS DTL, slices, S&V tactics, court position, drop shot return placements etc and etc.
Rafa didn’t show up.
Even berdych troubles Nole more than Rafa? Really sad
Rafa has now lost 9 straight sets to Novak
Sometimes the scoreline doesn’t do the story justice.
What I mean is that watching Berdych v Nole doesn’t even compare to today’s match. Rafa brings out the best in Nole. Nole has to bring his best to beat Rafa and that’s why it’s illusive. Two sides, two perspectives. I was nervous far more for Rafole than Berdole. No comparison, imo.
Like today
Yes, like today – also in Shanghai.
Meant Beijing, but Shanghai too, also Basel. I have no anti-jinxing agenda, honestly thought Rafa would accomplish the 3-0 as predicted. My thinking based on watching and results was that Rafa would meet Federer in the semi and Nole in the final. Felt Rafa could beat Stan and Andy – not completely on Rafa’s merit alone (all parties have their issues) but Rafa’s stock is rising and a win’s a win. That’s what his confidence requires, imo.
Berdych served better than Rafa. Rafa had to work so hard to win points. Novak also up his level vs Rafa.
Rafa is no match for Novak now. Only two guys could beat Novak but not consistently – Stan on slower surfaces and Fed on quicker surfaces but BO3 matches. Novak is the king now on any surface.
It’s true, Luckystar, Berdych has a good serve. He doesn’t move like Rafa, he isn’t smart like Rafa – so much different – could be here all day. You’ve written excellent analysis. Enjoy reading your posts -very fair and balanced. I’m no Rafa expert. I just watch tennis, watched Rafa this fall, perhaps closer than ever because so many people were writing him off. I don’t believe that’s the case.
It’s about confidence – so, I have nothing concrete. But, Rafa’s done it all before: played strong on both wings,(best forehand ever), the crushing 1st serve. The match wins were making him smile and enjoy tennis – he said as much. There was a time last year when I wondered.
Are you cheering for your guy against The Scruffy One tomorrow?
Scruffy gonna win in two.