A semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal was not entirely unexpected when the World Tour Finals draw was revealed. But the script took a twist in making the matchup come to fruition, as Nadal won his group while Djokovic finished second in the other foursome.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 46th time in their careers when they collide in the World Tour Finals semis on Saturday afternoon.
Interestingly, Djokovic has a chance to level his head-to-head series against both Nadal and Federer this weekend–the latter in a potential title match. The world No. 1 is 22-23 lifetime in his rivalry with Nadal, but the margin has become increasingly closer on a consistent basis. Djokovic has won all three of their meetings in 2015 and seven of their last eight overall. He is 15-6 at Nadal’s expense on hard courts, including 3-2 indoors and 2-1 at the O2 Arena.
“We (have) played so many times,” Djokovic assured. “I’m going to get ready for that one and hopefully I’ll be able to play at my best.”
Djokovic’s best has been on display almost entirely throughout what will go down as a dominant and historic 2015 campaign, which features three Grand Slam titles. During round-robin action this week, however, the top seed did not showcase the same level. After crushing Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer 7-5, 6-2 and underwhelmed in a 6-3, 7-5 victory over Tomas Berdych on Thursday night.
Aside from his two most recent matches, however, there is little to dislike regarding Djokovic’s chances heading into championship weekend. He is 80-6 for the season and is the three-time defending champion of this event.
Nadal has never won the year-end championship, but he has already done something this week that he had only accomplished once previously in his career. For the first time since 2010, the fifth-ranked Spaniard compiled a perfect 3-0 record in group competition. He drubbed Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-2, rolled over Andy Murray 6-4, 6-1, and outlasted David Ferrer 6-7(2), 6-3, 6-4 on Friday afternoon.
As well has Nadal has played, the relatively suddenly improvement in form is more likely to pay eventual dividends in 2016 than on Saturday against the toughest of opponents. Facing Djokovic on an indoor hard court–even a slow one–is simply not a good matchup for the 14-time major champion. Having spent two hours and 37 minutes on the court with Ferrer, while Djokovic had the day off, also will not help.
As Nadal said of his opponent, “All the positive things are for him.”
Pick: Djokovic in 2
[polldaddy poll=9189460]
That’s a disappointing stat.
“Nadal has never won the year-end championship, but he has already done something this week that he had only accomplished once previously in his career. For the first time since 2010, the fifth-ranked Spaniard compiled a perfect 3-0 record in group competition.”
I think in 2013 Nadal also went 3-0 in Group stage.
he did
Seconded.
The djokovic serve is now a real weapon. His first serve is quite good now.
Also, rafa’s technically the most inferior amongst the Big 3. Toni is to be blamed for that . But at the same time, Toni must be credited for a lot of things. My regret is that they never have tried adding someone else to the team….Toni can stay but what harm is there in trying!
Oscar Borras did wonders to his serve in such quick time. We don’t even know rafa’s true potential because he has always lacked technical guidance of the highest order.
Yes his serve is definitely a weapon now even the 2nd serve is quite good Djokovic gets very good depth on most of his 2nd serves and doesnt just try to roll it in.
#Boris
yup….Boris has helped him there. The partnership with Boris has been quite successful.
@64aces, yeah, his second serve is pretty strong
Agree with you VR.
Actually Rafa has better 2nd serve winning % than his first serve. He probably reduced the pace and varied it more on his 2nd serve. Rafa’s first serve is too predictable. We know Novak is the best returner of serve, still Fed can score more wins on his serve because of the unpredictability of his serve. Rafa has to learn to serve smart, less predictable, maybe throws in an ace down the T more often.
For Rafa’s ROS, i dont like it that he just hit the returns as hard as possible, to me placement is important, the way Novak does it. Maybe, Rafa could practice ROS DTL with his BH more, as Novak could anticipate a CC return and is ready for it all the time.
Rafa’s pattern of play vs Novak was too predictable, if he played like he did vs Murray, Im sure he would make a match out of it. Its as if Rafa is unsure how to play against Novak. There’s a game in the second set at 2-2, 15-30 I think, that Rafa instead of going FHDTL to an open court, he instead went CC all too often and one too many during the rally and Novak went on to win that exchange. A FHDTL would have Novak scrambling to his FH corner and so Rafa could then take advantage. Too bad, Rafa had no confidence hitting that shot during that point and in the match…
lucky,
I particularly agree with your last paragraph. You summed up succinctly what the issue is when Rafa plays Novak now. As I watched, it was as if Novak knew exactly where Rafa was going to hit the ball and he was ready. You also make a good point about Rafa being unsure how to play against Novak. Rafa wasn’t able to make tactical adjustments in this match the way he has in his other matches recently. He seemed almost lost at times.
Novak got the good court positioning and was able to run Rafa from one corner to the next. Rafa seemed to always be in a defensive mode while Novak was dictating the rallies. Rafa desperately needs his DTL forehand in matches with Novak. That was the shot that did so much damage in his wins over Novak in the 2013 RG and USO. He must have that shot.
Everyone knows Rafa needs to use his dtlfh. People were talking about it in 2011 when Rafa kept losing as dtlfh. But at Wimbledon 2011 in the SF against Delpo he suffered some foot pain and thereafter for the rest of the year I never saw any more of dtlfh. When he came back in 2013, he used it effectively.
The point I am making is that Rafa knows what he needs to do but he cannot execute it. A new coach or fresh pair of eyes will not help him. His problem is physical. Don’t know what it is but it is neither anxiety or not knowing what to do against Djoko.
vamosrafa,
Don’t you think that a new pair of eyes might proved some much needed insight and guidance for Rafa now? I am not talking about a new coach per se. Rafa is not going to get rid of his Uncle. But I do think that he and his team need a fresh perspective. Sometimes another person can provide suggestions and improvements and make observations that are valuable. I don’t know if it should be a serving coach or maybe someone on a consulting basis. But I really do believe that someone else has to be added to Rafa’s team, even if it’s only temporary.
Rafa has to make some adjustments to account for the aging process. Rafa’s core game will stay intact. He can’t change that. We are not going to see Rafa serving and volleying suddenly. Rafa will need to try to shorten points if possible. A better serve would give him more of an advantage at the start of the point. He needs to find his forehand consistently again.
Rafa may have found the answers for everyone but Novak, but he will need to solve that riddle, too. He can’t try to avoid him as the #1 player. If he wants to win slams, then he needs to find solutions to once again gain the advantage against Novak. I don’t think it’s going to be easy, because Novak has gotten the best of him this year in all their matches. Novak is incredibly confident when he plays Rafa now. So Rafa will have to change his patterns of play. He’s done it in the past after the 2012 AO final. Now that Novak has also adjusted his game, it’s Rafa’s turn.
To be frank, I’m rather disappointed with the way Rafa played his last two matches here. He was right on the mark when he started with Ferrer but as soon as Ferrer turned aggressive and played attacking tennis, Rafa retreated into defensive mode. This is something I dislike about Rafa and his mindset, I mean come on, he has all the weapons to play offensive tennis, and he has the power to overcome Ferrer, why not fight fire with fire and overpower Ferrer? Why let Ferrer bossed him all over the place? Ferrer wasnt even playing at the top of his game and was having problems with his own serve and yet Rafa managed to waste the SP in the first set after breaking Ferrer!
Had he played more offensively throughout, he would’ve won in straight sets, and at the same time giving himself confidence that that’s the way to play going forward. No doubt its his competitive spirit and thinking tennis that got him through in the end, but what message it sent out to Novak, who most likely would be watching the match closely.
Novak did his job of stamping his authority on Rafa, dampening his confidence and spirit, might have cast some more doubts in Rafa’s head and stopped his momentum. Novak certainly wont want to see a resurgent and confident Rafa come next year and so he’s eager to stiffle whatever Rafa had built up lately.
What could Rafa achieve playing the way he played in the SF? Its the same old way and he literally handed the match to Novak, not bringing anything new into the match to challenge Novak. At least if he played the way he played the first two matches, he could test and push Novak and saw how’s Novak’s response and gauged his own level. Now he gained nothing, no insight as to how his new game plan matched up with Novak’s game.
Even though Novak would be more prepared the next time had he played against Rafa’s new game plan, Im sure Rafa’s still a WIP and so Rafa could still modify or make adjustments to his more offensive game. To me its an opportunity wasted and ends his year on a not so pleasant note even though he won all his group RR matches.
I will panic about Rafa only if he loses RG next year. So far Rafa has been right about his progress and his expectations.Both he and U T have said recently that Rafa’s game is good enough to beat everyone except Djoko. Also that his aim is to be back in 2016 and peak for clay. In other words while he expects to do well at AO 2016, he is not saying winning it is his goal or even his expectation. His goal is to peak for clay.
UT said this year was frustrating for Rafa for he is used to winning. But his legs do not move well . His forehand is not working. UT did not say whether Rafa is hopeful of recovering speed and movement but obviously they are hopeful of doing something ( what?) otherwise they would not confidently talk about peaking for clay.
http://www.si.com/tennis/2015/10/09/rafael-nadal-toni-nadal-2016-season
I noticed that at the beginning of this year Rafa looked thin and he lacked power on his shots. He definitely looks sturdier so obviously he is regaining his strength. This is perfectly do able as people get stronger in their thirties probably till 35?. However I doubt he can improve his speed or reflexes. Especially reflexes which become significantly slower after 29 or 30 due to fall in HGH which starts around 25 but the fall becomes significant near 30. Most of the great players have won most of their slams by 29. Federer despite his perfect body won just 1 slam after 29. So did Sampras.
However Agassi has shown that if you are motivated enough and playing in a weak era you can add to your tally. Djoko and Federer are playing in a weak era now which probably started last year when Rafa injured his back. So in 1 year Fed reached 3 finals ( 2 Wimbledon and 1 USO) and Djoko being in his prime won all of them, Reminds me of Agassi meeting Federer in USO 2005. So if the next gen do not step up, Rafa has every chance of winning slams in the years ahead.
Perhaps Rafa’s fans have high expectations, even unrealistic expectations of him winning on the HCs esp the indoor ones. It seems that Toni and Rafa wish to concentrate on winning on clay, maybe they’re more realistic than many of his fans.
I certainly hope that Rafa can and will win the FO again and re-exert his authority on clay if he’s not going to win anywhere else. I wish Rafa all the best come next year.
Rafa has spoken openly about how difficult it is for him to change his way of playing at this stage in his career. It is understandable while he is in the transition process his results will fluctuate and when his back is against the wall he reverts to his default mode.
Meanwhile let’s be happy he did as well as he did and stop crying over spilt milk that he was convincingly outplayed by Djokovic in the SF. As Lucky points out it was unrealistic of his fans to entertain the hope he could defy the odds and beat the No.1 on an indoor hardcourt at the O2.
I was one of those guilty of allowing hope to triumph over experience 🙁
No amount of crystal ball gazing can tell us what results next year will bring – although it could be safe to bet it’s unlikely to include a win against an indoor HC specialist in the final stages of significant tournaments.
ed251137 (at 9:46 am),
—his fans to entertain the hope…
I was one of those guilty of allowing hope to triumph… —
===
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I’m always “allowing hope to triumph.” Because I’m a Rafan. 🙂
Even Hawkeye allowed his heart to rule his head 🙂
While Ricky remained relentlessly objective.
all i do is pick winners. The last 5 days are an example. Today will be no different.
I’m wondering how many times Ricky bragged about his picks during RR stages when a coin could have picked as well.
I’m also curious as to how many times Ricky picked winners the four times fed beat djokovic on BO5 HC since last fall.
Nole going down again in straights today. Rafa let him play his game but a peak fed won’t.
NID
Rafa’s speed was lower than in his first two O2 matches…against Ferry he showed weaknesses and I did not like what I was seeing…however, I thought the reason for it was that Rafa was not mentally in the match with Ferry…
Rafa’s game will not change drastically and I do not think any of his fans envisage sudden serve and volley game by Rafa…However, the game plan can change…the strategy to deal with certain players can be developed as long as Rafa can execute it…I also think that this time around the execution was poor…Rafa was not ready either physically or mentally to deal with this Nole…Rafa’s statements before the match proved that he was never going to play to win…he was just going to play…
In 2016 the situation can change but it will depend on several factors: Rafa continuing to improve his movements, court positioning, serve, implement some net play when possible, not reverting to his defensive style of play, etc. Rafa will have to be able to beat convincingly players other than Nole…unlike this year, he will have to play well enough to deal with other opponents…and then it will also take for Novak to drop in level. I personally think that it must happen at some point…nobody stays in the “beast mode” forever…Novak has a lot of points to defend next year, which means he will have to play a lot and also at the high level to be able to beat all of them…it will be tough even for Novak, unless Rafa, Andy and Wawa, and possibly young guns like Kyrgios and Thiem turn out to be all hopeless, which is very unlikely…This year Novak benefited from the weak field, weak era, easy draws, all contributing to development of Novak’s game and most importantly confidence. Tennis is a confidence game…Rafa knows what to do but he needs more confidence in his game to be able to execute it right…
I am sure Rafa will be strong on clay next year…he may win it all the way he is progressing…But I would so much like Rafa to be ready for the AO 2016…who knows: high temperatures, the draw, Nick Kyrgios ( 🙂 ) meeting Nole early… it can all help Rafa…I hope for Rafa to be healthy, I hope for some changes in strategy and I do hope for some luck in draws…and Rafa can be on top again…if Rafa was in Nole’s group he could have been in the finals today as I am sure this Rafa would have beaten Fed…Stan had his chances yesterday but he blew it…
We should not be disheartened by Rafa’s loss to Novak though…we all knew it would happen one way or another…while it would mean volume to us his fans, if he was able to make it more competitive on an indoor HC, for Rafa it would only mean more effort and no results…Outdoor slow AO courts should be much more appropriate for Rafa proving
himself…
Enjoy your time off, Rafa! You did us proud by winning all three matches and destroying Wawa and Andy the way you did! That is certainly an encouraging sign!
Vamos Rafa!
It was such a pleasure to read your post, nats. I feel a lot better for it.
It is frustrating, though, that Rafa’s critics do not allow his fans to enjoy his successes. Every time we have something to celebrate, they find some angle to vilify him and dilute whatever he’s achieved. Unfortunately, it is not possible to ignore these comments because they are long winded and verbose.
I still enjoy Rafa play than anyone else so I look forward to Abu Dhabi where I will be courtside.
#Vamos Rafa no matter what.
The polluting device (@3:28 pm) keeps running as usual.
We should also take heart that Rafa has had one of the most successful fall season of his career. His ranking is down to 5 because he did not capitalize on the clay season, after which he is usually #1 in the race. If he is successful in the clay season the rest will fall into place.
Vamos Rafa!
I add the data.
Ranking points Rafa earned after the USO in 2007 – 2015 (without Davis Cup):
2015 — 1740
2014 — 190
2013 — 2020 – the best result
2012 — didn’t play
2011 — 590
2010 — 1680
2009 — 1140
2008 — 180*
2007 — 1200*
*The points earned before 2009 are recalculated according to the current ATP Point table.
Rafa is optimistic. 🙂
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUah92LWUAAAK48.png
http://images.clipartpanda.com/smiley-face-thumbs-up-clipart-dTre6KXT9.jpeg
Rafa is stating math. In 2015, there weren’t many rankings points Nole left on the table.
#BYOAT
Rafa is optimistic.
REUTERS, Nov 21, 2015: ¤¤ Tennis – I’m back in the top league, declares Nadal.
(Excerpts)
“I was not able to think about Novak for the whole season,” Nadal told reporters. “I have been playing in another league.
“Seems like the last month-and-a-half, two months, I was in this league, I am in this top league.
“So my motivation and my goal is try to keep being in that top league, that is the top five, top four of the world. That’s my goal, and we’ll see if I am able to keep doing this.”
A fully functioning body will help in his mission as he nears his 30th birthday.
“Today I’m feeling good. My body is healthy, is strong. I feel good physically,” said Nadal, who has a 17-4 winning record since the U.S. Open. “I am able to practise a lot. I am able to compete great in long matches.
“I played the full season with not many problems. I’ve lost the strange feelings on court that I had during the season.” ¤¤
Read more in:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/21/tennis-men-atp-nadal-idUKL3N13G08M20151121
Be strong, Rafa! 🙂
The best analyst of Rafa is Rafa himself.
Thank you. This is what Rafa has to say:
I’m back in the top league, declares Nadal (Reuters)
“I was not able to think about Novak for the whole season,” Nadal told reporters. “I have been playing in another league. Seems like the last month-and-a-half, two months, I was in this league, I am in this top league. So my motivation and my goal is try to keep being in that top league, that is the top five, top four of the world. That’s my goal, and we’ll see if I am able to keep doing this.”
Rafa did not play anything like he played against Novak when he beat him at the USO in 2010 and 2013, nowhere near. He is on the way to regain his game but clearly he is not there yet. Beating Djokovic yesterday would have been nice but he didn’t. Onwardsand upwards.
Vamos Rafa!
Allez Roger! (Just for today) 🙂
Rafans should learn from Rafa:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUbB7vEVEAM2M8I.png
🙂
Rafa looks so good! And I love his smile!
Vamos!
+1
If some learnt from Rafa, they’d spend less time judging Rafans and more time discussing Rafa and tennis.
@ at 3:34 pm
—…judging Rafans…—
===
‘
This is YOUR main occupation!
Actually hawkeye, if you are referring to me, I don’t judge Rafans, only those who SAY they are Rafans but everything they say proves otherwise.
hawkeye,
Regarding you post @ 3:34pm, well said! It just baffles me how some here do not follow the example of the player whom they purport to support and worship. Rafa has such a decent spirit and good nature. He is always fair to his rivals and gives them praise for their accomplishments. He has set a great example of what true sportsmanship really is in this sport. That’s just another reason to be proud to be his fan.
No one here can tell me if I am or am not a supposedly “true” Rafan. Only I know what is in my heart. I do not have to pass some phony loyalty test that is put up by others who presume to think that they are the only ones who know what it means to be a Rafan. That’s beyond presumptuous.
hawk@3:43 pm
You continue to prove repeatedly that judging others is YOUR main occupation!
nativenewyorker7 (at 3:49 pm),
You should learn from Rafa – see my post at 2:25 pm.
It is your only original content judging posters here repeatedly proving my point.
hawkeye, saying you (I don’t mean you) are a fan doesn’t make one a fan. A fan would at least find SOMETHING positive to say about someone they support once in a while.
We do. I said the tournament was a positive step for Rafa and he is the best that’s ever played the game which disproves your particular type of fallacy because you know it’s all you can do.
Listen up people, do you hear there?
Rafans focus on Rafa and pretenders focus on Rafans with nothing to add about Rafa’s game or tennis.
And it makes me wonder.
nativenewyorker7 (at 3:49 pm)
—No one here can tell me if I am or am not a supposedly “true” Rafan.—
===
.
Really? What’s this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUbYRuFUYAAwOer.png:medium
P.S.
If I may ask, doesn’t the statement “a true Rafan” imply that there are “not true Rafans” ?
On Sky, scheduled immediately after the final is ‘Sporting Greats – Rafael Nadal’ it’s on almost every other day as is the one on Fed Sky doesn’t think Djoker is a sporting great yet.
Yes, Rafans should learn from Rafa’s example. He has been honest in acknowledging what Novak did this year. But he also knows that he is making real progress and should be ready for 2016.
I am going to continue to support him, while saying what I think and also giving credit to his rivals where it’s due.
Is it just unfortunate your opinion of Rafa is always negative?
The polluting device (@ 3:53 pm) seems to be set to auto mode. 😆
Over the last 5-7 years I have never known NNY to stick up for Rafa she ALWaYS agrees with negative comments about him and fights to the death for other players. She should do well on The Dysfunctional Tennis site but that didn’t work out too well for her if I remember correctly.
The polluting device (@ 4:07 pm) runs constantly. 😆