World Tour Finals SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

DjokerA semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal was not entirely unexpected when the World Tour Finals draw was revealed. But the script took a twist in making the matchup come to fruition, as Nadal won his group while Djokovic finished second in the other foursome.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 46th time in their careers when they collide in the World Tour Finals semis on Saturday afternoon.

Interestingly, Djokovic has a chance to level his head-to-head series against both Nadal and Federer this weekend–the latter in a potential title match. The world No. 1 is 22-23 lifetime in his rivalry with Nadal, but the margin has become increasingly closer on a consistent basis. Djokovic has won all three of their meetings in 2015 and seven of their last eight overall. He is 15-6 at Nadal’s expense on hard courts, including 3-2 indoors and 2-1 at the O2 Arena.

“We (have) played so many times,” Djokovic assured. “I’m going to get ready for that one and hopefully I’ll be able to play at my best.”

Djokovic’s best has been on display almost entirely throughout what will go down as a dominant and historic 2015 campaign, which features three Grand Slam titles. During round-robin action this week, however, the top seed did not showcase the same level. After crushing Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer 7-5, 6-2 and underwhelmed in a 6-3, 7-5 victory over Tomas Berdych on Thursday night.

Aside from his two most recent matches, however, there is little to dislike regarding Djokovic’s chances heading into championship weekend. He is 80-6 for the season and is the three-time defending champion of this event.

Nadal has never won the year-end championship, but he has already done something this week that he had only accomplished once previously in his career. For the first time since 2010, the fifth-ranked Spaniard compiled a perfect 3-0 record in group competition. He drubbed Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-2, rolled over Andy Murray 6-4, 6-1, and outlasted David Ferrer 6-7(2), 6-3, 6-4 on Friday afternoon.
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As well has Nadal has played, the relatively suddenly improvement in form is more likely to pay eventual dividends in 2016 than on Saturday against the toughest of opponents. Facing Djokovic on an indoor hard court–even a slow one–is simply not a good matchup for the 14-time major champion. Having spent two hours and 37 minutes on the court with Ferrer, while Djokovic had the day off, also will not help.

As Nadal said of his opponent, “All the positive things are for him.”

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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104 Comments on World Tour Finals SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. Where do I reply to your post Hawkey? Okay, I’ll try here. You are getting ahead of yourself. I picked Stan in 3. Really like the idea – which isn’t a good reason to pick, but…

    • I think you are still a Roger fan as much if not more so than a Nole fan.

      Forgive me for saying so because beating Murray and Ferrer indoors is one thing but he has little chance against Roger who schooled Nole.

      Fed is at a whole nuther level than Stanford. Hope Mirka brings her cheering voice.

      If fedole meet, who you rooting for?

      • Trying to follow your line of reasoning as to me being more of a Federer fan – but I don’t get it. If it’s about picking and jinxing – maybe this tennis stuff is driving you a wee bit crazy, Majesty? I pick sincerely. Not to jinx. But if it pleases You, Majesty, I will attempt to set aside my well – honed bracketeer skills and comply.
        Picking Nole for the trophy and picking Stan as runner-up. Tired of Federer winning back in 2009 after he won Wimbles, for good. Cheered Delpo’s win. Nole thereafter for wins. Not Serbian, no connection other I like his tennis and all on my own decided Nole is kick a**! Does this sincere admission/confession satisfy You, or does it not? I

      • Oh my goodness, I may have. Kei winning would great! Rafa, great. Perhaps, I don’t care so much one way or another how Nole gets outta this, preferably another performance like today, we’ll see. I watch sport for fun and not just tennis or Nole.

      • Conclusion after nearly a week on this blog. Like Ricky’s write-ups and information. Thought maybe this was more a more open forum than it is. A very benign but thoughtful post of mine was deleted without explanation. No big deal but it’s weird. Thinking I’m done here and will say buh-bye. Wish you all and especially Rafa Nadal the best. But an inquisition makes me wonder….this comment sections and threads are unfriendly and unwelcome to anyone not a Huge Rafa fan.

        • Sorry to hear that. It was great to have you commenting here and I’m very sorry if I was the cause of you leaving. I hope you change your mind.

          With that said, the same is true if you are a Rafan on TX unless you are willing to put him down and criticize his behaviour from time to time. Long time Rafans there are in permanent moderation.

      • ratcliff, i am really really sorry to hear that you are going as it was great to have you here. i am one of the very few people here who likes nole a lot (i often defend him and cheer for him) and i do get attacked for that sometimes which is very boring. so it would be great if you had stayed. this site would be so much better if it had more nole and fed fans and was not so absurdly rafacentric full of petty squabbles and arguments.
        i hope nole wins wtf and i will be cheering him on now that rafa is out. he’s a great guy and player and a credit to the sport.

      • oh and ricky why did you delete one of ratcliff’s posts??? isn’t great to be chasing away such a thoughtful and insightful poster and also this site is frankly in desperate need of nole and fed fans as it is rafacentric to the point of complete and utter tedium.

      • well you can’t blame fed or nole fans for leaving here hawks..it’s utterly ridiculous how insular this site is with such a small pool of regular posters (sorry i am in a bad mood right now)
        all these utterly silly infantile arguments about ‘loyal’ rafa fans would make most sane people take one or 2 looks and then just decide not to post here
        is a pity when we have amazing people like vr, lucky, nny….

      • amy says:
        — it is rafacentric to the point of complete and utter tedium—
        ===
        .
        It reminded me that you encouraged hawk to sabotage Rafa’s page…
        😆

      • then i don’t really understand why she was offended…think it is far more to do with the difficulties of being a nole fan on a rafacentric site..she doesn’t seem like the sort of person just to take offence at harmless banter (which was pretty much all it was!!)

    • ratcliff,

      I like reading your thoughts. As someone who is not specifically a Rafa fan, it’s good to hear another perspective. You are also respectful of Rafa in defeat. I appreciate that. Whoever you say is your favorite player, I accept that.

  2. Listen up people, do you hear there?

    we’re to believe that Novak’s level was better in 2011 but now he’s the best on all surfaces and all players including Rafa have to retool their game even though Rafa had already executed his plan to beat him in 2012 and 2013.

    And it makes me wonder.

    • Nah, they’d already retooled their games after 2011. Everyone has to retool now because they’re getting older now, Novak has already retooled his game with the help of Becker, Fed with Edberg, Stan with Magnus, Murray is still looking around.

      Rafa is getting older too so his 2012 and 2013 game he can no longer execute them now. He’s yet to show success with his new game plan if he has any.

      • Dont think its 2013, more like working to play more inside the court and come forward to the net more often (though not as much as Fed does), after realising that he can no longer win the battle from the baseline.

        In 2013 Rafa was still camping at the baseline albeit closer. He was still quicker and more powerful back then than he is now.

  3. hawkeye,

    I don’t want to start that one all over again! But you know where I stand regarding Novak in 2011. However, you also know what others will say, i.e. that 2015 has been a weak year with not as much competition as 2011.

    I do think Fed’s going to beat Stan. How easy it will be depends on whether Stan plays his game. He’s been looking better, but still not at his best.

    Regarding today’s match, what stays with me is how Rafa lost. It wasn’t a battle. He wasn’t able to make it competitive. That is what concerns me right now.

  4. Perspective please

    Rafa lost to Nole 6 3 6 3 in 2013WTF final too

    Today is not any worse compared to that when Rafa was much better

    Rafa has to climb to No 2 to have someone else do the dirty job for him to take care of Nole

  5. sanju,

    I don’t see how you can compare this loss to the one in 2013. Look at what Rafa did in 2013. By the time Rafa had that loss to Novak, he had already beaten him in the RG semifinal that year and also the USO. He also beat him at Montreal in a memorable match.

    So there is no way that you can say it’s okay because it happened two years ago. Not the same at all. This year Rafa hasn’t been able to beat Novak anywhere. He lost to him at RG in the quarterfinals, only his second loss at that tournament.

    That’s why this loss is worse.

    Also, it’s going to be awhile before Rafa gets back to #2. If that is what you are counting on for Rafa to have a shot at winning slams again, then that really says it all.

    • Had Rafa played like Montreal 2013 he could have won today not saying he would have but would have been much closer.

      Montreal is medium fast outdoors and we shouldn’t dismiss that indoors isn’t for Rafa.

    • If after having a stellar 2013 and beating Novak elsewhere if he could lose 6 3 6 3 in 2013 , why did we expect any better today when he is far off from 2013 level.

      Rafa is simply not ready to take on Nole till he wins some big titles and for that he needs some help. Once the titles come, confidence will come too.

      Not meeting Nole till finals will help him rake up confidence and Novak can have a bad day n get taken out by someone else.

      • Sanju,

        Who said that I expected Rafa to win? I didn’t expect it, but I hoped. There’s nothing wrong with that. What I did want to see was a competitive match. I still say that there is no comparison between this loss and the won in 2013, because Rafa had already beaten Novak where it counted, in two slams. He didn’t do that this year.

    • no, he meant it…he does not consider Rafa his biggest rival any more…nor does he see anybody else to that matter…Nole is mountain high on confidence right now and there is a reason for it…his results are extreme…he deserves all the credit for it…but as I said a while ago: weak era and Nole turns into a self-centered egoist…I really hope someone puts him down to earth…

      I have to put up with Nole’s fans ridiculing Rafa’s game but I am used to it and can live with that…they even go that far to say that Novak lost to Fed on purpose because he wanted to meet and humiliate Rafa in the semis…

      well, life goes on…hope Rafa learns from this and moves on…he still has it in himself…he still can be a force even when Novak is concerned…he just needs to believe in his game…

      as his Majesty rightly pointed out: two steps forward one step back….the progress is visible…

      BTW, I agree with you that we should be pleased with Rafa’s results here considering the tough year he was going through…

      • natashao2013 (at 8:31 pm),
        —I have to put up with Nole’s fans ridiculing Rafa’s game but I am used to it and can live with that…—
        ===
        .
        One poster wrote above that “this site is frankly in desperate need of nole and fed fans as it is rafacentric to the point of complete and utter tedium.”
        Thankfully, there’s not too many ND fans here! 🙂

  6. Nobody is throwing out Rafa’s result in this tournament. He did well to beat the #2 and #4 players. That’s a big step forward. But he just isn’t ready to take on Novak. Not yet. I am sure that Rafa is going to focus on what he did here and then work to get even better.

  7. I think Djokovic assumes Federer’s play more challenging to him than Rafa’s. I think Djokovic thinks that Federer, right now, is the most dangerous rival for him unless Rafa changes his tactics.

  8. Just imagine if Fed, Nadal, and Djoker have had the same age. The Grandslams distribution might have gone this way each year.
    Aus Open: Djokovic
    French Open: Nadal
    Wimbledon: Federer
    US Open: Federer

  9. It was not a happy outcome and the match was over quickly but I had an AMAZING experience. I was able to watch argubaly the best backhand in the game, the best ROS in the game and the best forehand in the game all at the same time. The way rafa and novak cover the court is MIND BLOWING.

    Rafa started the match hitting two forehand DTL winners and I got up from the seat to cheer him up! I had the best seat in the house lol…ribehind the baseline, first row… right behind the line judge in the middle of the court….Rafa could very clearly hear my ‘come on rafaaaaaaa’ and all the shouting.

    I can only imagine the pressure rafa must be under when serving. Novak’s return is CRAZY!! there was a point I was thinking where the heck can rafa serve to get a free point! He has now learned to manhandle body serves too! He was ready most of the times.

    My view was amazing so I was able to see lots of stuff. Djokovic was just in cruise control in most of their rallies. He was standing close to the baseline and changing direction of the ball so easily and slowly builds on advantage Rafa was doing so much defending . There were some good second serve returns by rafa but not consistent enough.

    I think the biggest difference was the huge gap in the serve-return dynamic. Novak has a far superior ROS and he has a better serve too. Rafa tries to take control by using his forehand but Novak has developed some patterns that don’t allow rafa to dictate much with his forehand..

    TBC in the next post…

    • Glad you enjoyed it. It wasn’t Rafa’s day with Djoker brimming with confidence. I’, sure things can only get better. They showed Rafa leaving the O2 and he was smiling, that’s good enough for me.

      Vamos Rafa!

      • no, it was not about rafa not having a good day. In his current state, this was close to the best he could offer. Djokovic just raised his level too today. The good thing is that he is improving and enjoying his tennis. His best tennis next year should be good enough to win , at least on surfaces that favor him more.

        I could see rafa giving it his all and loved it.

    • What novak does in LOTS of rallies is to hit HEAVY forehands , not too hard and flat but heavy, to get rafa moving to his backhand side….. normally novak gets either a good angle of good length so he eventually draws an attack-able backhand response from rafa and THEN goes for rafa’s forehand. He now flattens out the ball a lot more and takes time away from rafa. Then rafa spends most of the time defending and novak keep spreading the court unless rafa can come up with a big shot in the rally to turn the table. Rafa’s movement towards the backhand side is still not 100% explosive and his slices are inconsistent. Novak exploited that.

      Novak’s start to the match to race to 3-0 was too damn good . Then rafa steadied the ship for some time and played some good tennis. Rafa was NOT making stupid mistakes. There was a longgg rally in the second set when rafa was facing BP . Rafa lost the point after playing a clueless backhand slice that landed wide. He was not able to have enough aggression to penetrate djokovic’s baseline game.

      I do think rafa is on the right track. He did some right things and now has a very good idea how much more work he needs despite all the improvements. Novak is a TERRIBLE TERRIBLE matchup for him.

      • I do feel rafa can turn the tables on surfaces that favor him more. He will be very much there in 2016. I wish rafa’s serve can improve :/ It will help him big time. He solved the djokovic puzzle in 2012 but djokovic has now retooled his game to counter some winning patterns rafa had. He now deals with body serves MUCH better. He defends on his forehand side with better length and this he has improved to counter rafa’s inside out forehand. His forehand ROS has also improved.

        For rafa, he must keep making efforts to return serves more aggressively and perhaps be more offensive with his first strikes. And he cannot allow his backhand side to be exploited. he can craft some winning patterns again but needs work.

        Rafa’s forehand DTL , btw, is an ELECTRIC shot. Most people in my box were rafa fans but most of them were quiet and only clapped. I was the only one shouting and I knew rafa could hear clearly when he was on the side I was sitting.lol.

      • what do you mean?:s rafa is a terrible matchup for federer and novak is equally terrible for rafa. The difference is that rafa has been able to handle his worst matchup much better than federer has. Rafa’s lefty serve falls in novak’s comfort zone to return with authority, rafa’s CC forehand goes to novak’s backhand. Currently, novak’s defending is even better , at least on hard courts and he can match rafa’s speed too.

        Rafa has to develop some winning patterns to overcome all this. Has done that in the past but needs to do that again.

        Rafa was just not able to effectively use the shot that can change the dynamics: his forehand.

        Overall a gooood week. He will improve more.

      • Rafa’s serve is letting him down at the moment so I hope that improves.

        It was a pity his fans were not allowed to enjoy his successes this week with some people trying to dismiss his victory over Stan as a non event because Stan wasn’t trying. Such a shame.

      • oh come on you! stop instigating people here. You are frustrated rafa lost and trying to take it on other posters here. I was also there at that match and it was not the best of efforts by stan in the second half of the 2nd set. It is a thing of the past now.

        A much bigger match took place.

        As hawkeye has pointed out, focus on RAFA and no Rafans.

      • vamosrafa,

        I know exactly which rally you are talking about in that second set. I brought it up in one my comments about the match earlier. I remember that backhand slice that went wide! So frustrating.

        Thanks for posting your observations about the match.

      • augusta08 says:November 21, 2015 at 9:55 pm
        The polluting device is focused on Rafans!

        Listen up people, do you hear there?

        A reborn environmentalist is self-aware.

        And it makes me wonder.

  10. And some extra fun stuff:

    – I shook hands with Papa Nadal!! LOL. Because my seat was so awesome, the whole nadal clan walked past me. I said ‘sebastian…..picture?’ but he was in a hurry with his family so I just leaned forward and extended my hand and the tapped it. haha. Xisa, rafa’s mother, sister , his doctor I guess were all there. Maymo jogged past me right after rafa left the court!

    – I met Carlos Moya, took a picture. ! Cool guy.

    – I met RICKY DIMON!!!! …………. yes, our very own, Ricky. He is an awesome guy 😉

    Very nice experience overall!!

    • hahaha…I just bought them….The rafa clan walked past me coz that was the only way for them to use the exit they wanted to use.

      • vamosrafa,

        It sounds like you had a wonderful experience. Seeing his family and Carlos Moya. Meeting Ricky. Hey, he posted about it here on the site. He said that he met the legend, vamosrafa!

        Two Rafa matches in one week!

        I was very disappointed in the way this match played out. I was truly hoping that Rafa would make it competitive.

      • he really posted that! lol….let me check out. We took a picture as well.

        Yes, the match was not competitive. I was hoping at least one set could be a competitive one but Djokovic was in control throughout.

        A lot of work needs to be done. Rafa must keep working hard….

  11. Novak for the moment is almost unbeatable. The only thing you can do is congratulate him. But things are like this today. What Novak is doing is just amazing. It is obvious that it’s true if somebody can do it, it’s him, but it’s not easy to stay at that high level four years in a row or five years in a row.

    He’s hitting amazing. The return is always amazing. This year he is serving great. And then he is able to play with no mistakes and changing directions so easy, playing so, so long. He’s doing everything good.

  12. Novak and Fed are playing really nice tennis,Very clear in their respective gameplans and great execution.Nadal on the other hand looks like he’s from a previous generation.The game has passed him by.

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