A semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal was not entirely unexpected when the World Tour Finals draw was revealed. But the script took a twist in making the matchup come to fruition, as Nadal won his group while Djokovic finished second in the other foursome.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 46th time in their careers when they collide in the World Tour Finals semis on Saturday afternoon.
Interestingly, Djokovic has a chance to level his head-to-head series against both Nadal and Federer this weekend–the latter in a potential title match. The world No. 1 is 22-23 lifetime in his rivalry with Nadal, but the margin has become increasingly closer on a consistent basis. Djokovic has won all three of their meetings in 2015 and seven of their last eight overall. He is 15-6 at Nadal’s expense on hard courts, including 3-2 indoors and 2-1 at the O2 Arena.
“We (have) played so many times,” Djokovic assured. “I’m going to get ready for that one and hopefully I’ll be able to play at my best.”
Djokovic’s best has been on display almost entirely throughout what will go down as a dominant and historic 2015 campaign, which features three Grand Slam titles. During round-robin action this week, however, the top seed did not showcase the same level. After crushing Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer 7-5, 6-2 and underwhelmed in a 6-3, 7-5 victory over Tomas Berdych on Thursday night.
Aside from his two most recent matches, however, there is little to dislike regarding Djokovic’s chances heading into championship weekend. He is 80-6 for the season and is the three-time defending champion of this event.
Nadal has never won the year-end championship, but he has already done something this week that he had only accomplished once previously in his career. For the first time since 2010, the fifth-ranked Spaniard compiled a perfect 3-0 record in group competition. He drubbed Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-2, rolled over Andy Murray 6-4, 6-1, and outlasted David Ferrer 6-7(2), 6-3, 6-4 on Friday afternoon.
As well has Nadal has played, the relatively suddenly improvement in form is more likely to pay eventual dividends in 2016 than on Saturday against the toughest of opponents. Facing Djokovic on an indoor hard court–even a slow one–is simply not a good matchup for the 14-time major champion. Having spent two hours and 37 minutes on the court with Ferrer, while Djokovic had the day off, also will not help.
As Nadal said of his opponent, “All the positive things are for him.”
Pick: Djokovic in 2
[polldaddy poll=9189460]
I don’t see Djokovic wining in straight sets, looks like that on paper though.
I have Djokovic in 3 with at least 1 tie break, the only reason i don’t have Nadal wining is because I know he will break on important moments.
In my opinion Djokovic is droping his level and Nadal is coming back but still not enough to beat Djokovic on his mental game.
Well, my pick was a Fedal semi because Nole was supposed to win Smith Group.I’ll pass on this pick. (on cyber paper)
My heart won’t let my head pick this one.
VAMOS RAFA NO MATTER WHAT!!!!!
On this week’s form I’d say Rafa 60/40; on the law of averages because Nole is a lucky old so and so, I’d say Nole 60/40.
When nadline says Rafa 60/40, you know he’s in trouble.
I am more objective than you think. I’m a realist; I know Rafa will have to fight for a win. There is a lot in it for both of them.
No. You’re likely even less objective than I think.
hahahaha
Nadal in 3 sets. Djokovic would be having pressure to sustain the level he has been showing since the start of 2015. Just imagin if rafa had Federer’s serve, he might have won 18 grand slams up till now. Because that serve would have given him so many free points resulting less injury.
Funny you should say that. That’s a question Rafa was asked in Australia a few years ago – which of Federer’s shots would he like and he said his serve.
Federer’s serve is probably second or third only to Isner’s and Ivo (in that order).
@nadline really Rafa said so? Look I know what rafa really needs. 🙂
That’s like saying, if Roger had Nole’s BH, he probably would have amassed 25 grand slam titles till now!
Not true. A good serve is certainly more important than a good DHBH, winning you cheap points in only one shot.
How would Fed amass 25 slams? Novak with DHBH couldnt beat Rafa at the FO until this year, I doubt Fed with a DHBH would beat Rafa at the FO when Rafa was at his peak! Rafa beating Fed on grass and HC slams not because of Fed’s SHBH, the court surfaces dont favour Rafa’s style of play. Its more of Rafa’s movements, speed, power, spins, tactics and focus that beat Fed more often than Fed beat him. IOWs, its in Rafa that Fed had met his match – one who could match him in many aspects of his game except for his serve and his varieties at that time , and one who could exploit his weaknesses.
Also Rafa let us had a glimpse of what a big serve would do for him at the slams, ie USO2010. So, its not unreasonable to expect him to do better than what he’s doing now in his career had he gotten a big serve.
Ive not seen Fed playing with a DHBH and I’m not sure even if he had one, he would hit it as good as Novak; IOW, its not proven. The DHBH had its limitations too, which I think its why Fed sticks to his SHBH. There are players switching from DH to SH BH, like Thiem; Tsonga seems to be keen in hitting some SHBH too having a weak DHBH himself.
im really contemplating putting $200 on nadal to win $1000. Nadal is a five to one underdog. I myself believe he has no chance based on him excerting himself today and may not have enough left for tomorrow. But maybe nole will have another bad day with many UE. But then again i think this is a suckers bet. The bookies think he has no chance and are confident enough to put out +450(average)
Beating Nole and Fed b2b indoors at those odds just goes to show how good Rafa is (when he’s still not back to his best).
Think about this from Stan’s point of view for just a second. Stan could get to the final without having to go through Nole o:
If he gets by Nole (who hasn’t been all that great this week), Rafa will beat fed on this slower than Basel court.
Beating nole would be HUGEEE.
Exactly. Fedal final. Advantage Rafa.
^This. I do think that if Rafa beats Novak. he will beat Fed. But it’s not an easy task. Taking on Novak is going to be tough. But Rafa has improved so much and I am hoping that he can take it to Novak.
Novak Djokovic on playing Rafa:
We have played so many times and even a couple of times on this very court.
He has played great in his first couple of matches and hopefully I will be able to play my best. That is what is needed to beat him.
********************************************************
Rafa on playing Novak:
I have to play my best if I want to have any chance, that’s what I’m gonna try.
Against Novak, I know what I have to do. But be very difficult to make it. Is a big challenge. But I am not worried about it. I am happy about the things, how are going.
I cannot go crazy. I cannot go on the court and thinking that I have to do something that I cannot do it. I going to try to play my game. I going to try to play aggressive. I going to try to be strong mentally.
Rafael Nadal fans
My comment @ 6:08 am was in response to Hawkeye’s post @ 8:22 pm.
My flipa-dime-on pick is complete!
Ended with a wrong pick.
Congrats to me!!!!!
Reblogged this on Tennis Abides.
I can’t ever vote against Rafa. I’m always rooting for him, regardless. I just think he has to keep on really “believing” in himself, and he can get back to the peak again. Vamos, Rafa.
I’m with you Bille.
From henceforth, Majesty decrees never to pick against Rafa ever again even though antijinxings make it difficult.
@ Billie,
I agree…that is why I never bet against Rafa…I can’t pick against Rafa…
I think the “belief” is crucial for Rafa’s game…if he has it in himself, he can beat anyone…
Obviously the belief can come only when he knows he can rely on his game. The hard practice he has been putting in is having results. His forehand and backhand are better but his serve is still vulnerable. But against Djoko, what is critical is to be aggressive like Fed and Stan. He must mix it up and keep Djoko off guard. I used to earlier get annoyed when Fed would say “the match is on my racket”. Now I understand what he meant. Rafa must have that approach when he faces Djokovic.
Come on , rafa, you have to take it to Novak tomorrow.
I will be really happy if he can just play some nice aggressive tennis. i want to see that forehand rocking novak’s stable game. Rafa will return from close to the baseline most of the times and if he can get his serving patterns right, it won’t be easy at all for Novak.I expect rafa to challenge Novak tomorrow. Rafa’s the clear underdog but he can benefit from that and play freely.
Hit your inside out forehand more aggressively, rafa, and DO NOT overdo the body serve coz Novak read most of them in Beijing. Just keep him confused.
Even taking a set off Novak would be big success. VAMOS!
Rafa hit some really good backhand slices against Ferrer. if he can hit some clever slices against Novak, he can construct points with both his forehand and the backhand. He has developed some patterns over the years. Only needs to hit decent-good quality slices. I hope he uses that smartly tomorrow.
I’ll be happy if he can manage not to sweat like a leaky tap.
vamosrafa,
That’s interesting, because you have been very critical of Rafa’s slices. I thought that they were effective against Ferrer, but Novak is a whole other beast.
But I do think that Rafa will know what he has to do. Nobody needs to tell him that he must serve well. He will know that he must try to win the battle of the baseline so that he can control and dictate points.
I will say that I am expecting this match to be competitive. I think Rafa is at a place where he can do it, even on this court. I don’t put much faith in this idea that Novak hasn’t looked great this week. He always goes up another gear when he gets to the business end of tournaments. I expect Novak to come out playing really well.
I can’t ever bring myself to pick against Rafa. I know that Novak is the favorite in this match. Rafa already said that he will have to play his best. I would like to see a 3 set match with some real drama and great tennis.
All I can say is – good luck, Rafa!
NNY, yup, he knows what to do and I hope he can put it all together today. novak deals with slices efficiently but he is not the best in dealing with them. Players can draw relatively attack-able or at least neutral balls by playing good slices against him. Rafa’s even done that by using slices with not much bit as long as they are deep in the court. I hope he can intelligently use those patterns. USO 2010, AO 2012 are some examples.
Djoko in 2 easy sets. Hope i am wrong 🙁
I have a good feeling about the match tomorrow. Whatever the result, I know Rafa will do us proud.
Keep your mind sharp and focused, stay confident, be strong and fight fiercely, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUU0h1qUEAAEZHb.png:medium
Rafa is more relaxed when he is the underdog; he’s already surpassed the sceptics’ expectations; his objective for the year was to qualify for the WTF which he achieved and each win has been icing on the cake. Proof of this was the unbridled joy after his win last night in a match which had no bearing on the WTF title. I had a lump in my throat watching his reactions and realising just what it meant to him to have overcome the demons which were threatening to torpedo his career.
All of which is to say I share the view of those who believe the moment may have arrived when Rafa is put to the test and beats the most feared player of the year.
Rafa for the win in 3 sets.
ed, I agree. Rafa will be relaxed today, he knows he is on his way even if he doesn’t win this match. The pressure is on Novak because should Rafa, the underdog all year, beat him it would just take the shine off his stellar year.
Vamos Rafa!
The pressure is certainly more on Novak and rafa will, hopefully be relaxed. he has already set the tone for 2016 and all that he wins from now is just a bonus. I hope he can play his best tennis . His baseline game is more ‘ferocious’. If he can pull this off, it would be perhaps the best victory of 2015 !!
A victory over Novak will definitely be Rafa’s best victory this year, you can’t do better than beat the World #1. Rafa has already beaten the World #2.
Rafa wont relax, its his nature when in a big match. Its unlike Beijing when he had no expectation, this time he may have some after doing so well vs the no.4 and no.2 guys.
Its very important that Rafa doesn’t hit too many short balls; Novak had said before that he could just wait for Rafa’s short balls and they would come and so Novak could take advantage. They know each other’s pattern of play, but if Rafa plays with the mindset he had in 2013 at Montreal and never give an inch to Novak, ie hugging the baseline and not letting Novak to push him around, he’ll have better chances of winning.
@ lucky,
great post! Well said!
Yup, you are right.It is not in his nature to relax before big matches….
I think Rafa was a bit slow in his match against Ferrer…it may be that he was not mentally in, but also Ferry caught him by surprise: Rafa did not expect Ferry would fight back so hard in the dead rubber and ceratinly did not foresee Ferry going at every shot like it was his last..in the end Rafa had a lot of match practice and the match with Ferry was nothing but a good preparation for Nole…after all they have similar style of play: run at every ball until the opponent (in this case Rafa) drops a short ball or commits another error…
it’s sufficient to say that Rafa’s serve must be on a higher level in this match…however, sometimes Nole returns Rafa’s first serve better than the second, depending on how will Rafa mix it up…so you never no…
I just hope Rafa will play agressive tennis…I hope he does not revert to his defensive play as he did during the first and the second set with Ferry…I hope he implements similar strategy as he did against Wawa pushing Nole back and not allowing him to play his comfort game…it will be difficult cause this is Nole but if we put it this way: Wawa troubles Nole more than often, Rafa destroyed Wawa, why then not expect Rafa to beat Nole in the similar fashion.. 🙂 we can hope for the best!
Vamos Rafa!
“He DRUBBED Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-2”
love your terminology, Ricky! 🙂
Ricky, you will be there right?