World Tour Finals SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

DjokerA semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal was not entirely unexpected when the World Tour Finals draw was revealed. But the script took a twist in making the matchup come to fruition, as Nadal won his group while Djokovic finished second in the other foursome.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 46th time in their careers when they collide in the World Tour Finals semis on Saturday afternoon.

Interestingly, Djokovic has a chance to level his head-to-head series against both Nadal and Federer this weekend–the latter in a potential title match. The world No. 1 is 22-23 lifetime in his rivalry with Nadal, but the margin has become increasingly closer on a consistent basis. Djokovic has won all three of their meetings in 2015 and seven of their last eight overall. He is 15-6 at Nadal’s expense on hard courts, including 3-2 indoors and 2-1 at the O2 Arena.

“We (have) played so many times,” Djokovic assured. “I’m going to get ready for that one and hopefully I’ll be able to play at my best.”

Djokovic’s best has been on display almost entirely throughout what will go down as a dominant and historic 2015 campaign, which features three Grand Slam titles. During round-robin action this week, however, the top seed did not showcase the same level. After crushing Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer 7-5, 6-2 and underwhelmed in a 6-3, 7-5 victory over Tomas Berdych on Thursday night.

Aside from his two most recent matches, however, there is little to dislike regarding Djokovic’s chances heading into championship weekend. He is 80-6 for the season and is the three-time defending champion of this event.

Nadal has never won the year-end championship, but he has already done something this week that he had only accomplished once previously in his career. For the first time since 2010, the fifth-ranked Spaniard compiled a perfect 3-0 record in group competition. He drubbed Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-2, rolled over Andy Murray 6-4, 6-1, and outlasted David Ferrer 6-7(2), 6-3, 6-4 on Friday afternoon.
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As well has Nadal has played, the relatively suddenly improvement in form is more likely to pay eventual dividends in 2016 than on Saturday against the toughest of opponents. Facing Djokovic on an indoor hard court–even a slow one–is simply not a good matchup for the 14-time major champion. Having spent two hours and 37 minutes on the court with Ferrer, while Djokovic had the day off, also will not help.

As Nadal said of his opponent, “All the positive things are for him.”

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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31 Comments on World Tour Finals SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. More than the loss, it is the manner of loss that would cede mental real estate to the Djoker. If Rafa takes the fight to Djoko like he did in USO 2011, AO 2012 or MC 2013, at least Djoko will win with some doubts in his minds that the dynamic may change at the next match. However now it seems each time , the Djok gets more and more comfortable beating Rafa. At the moment even Murray seems to put up more of a fight v Djoko

  2. vmk1,

    I agree with you. This is why I hoped that this match would at least be competitive. That would be an encouraging sign. If it’s just another lopsided easy win for Novak, that’s not a good thing. I do think that Novak is not only comfortable with Rafa, but extremely confident.

  3. And the commentators are not helping by harping on and one about how Rafa has lost a streak of sets and none of the sets have been closer than 6 3

  4. Wow Novak is doing a good job at exposing Rafas weaknesses his serve and his court positiing I’m general this is so hard to watch but he is at least playing better in the second

    • That is the problem. How can the supposedly the most mentally strong player on tour have his main rival in his head. Its like the supposed GOAT having the lopsided H2h against his main rival

  5. Rafa is unable to get into Novak’s service games and put any pressure on him. Novak holding too easily. That ends up putting even more pressure on Rafa to hold serve.’

  6. Rafa always needs at least a set to warm up. I think the second set should be more competitive. Djoko’s serve is so good making it hard for Rafa to read and return. I hope Rafa can break Novak’s serve asap before getting to the 7th or 8th game of the second set. If not it will be game over for Rafa in straight sets.

    • Give him time. He will fathom it out. Not today but he’ll get there. Djokovic has done his homework and Rafa is being too tentataive. When he does try to be more aggressive the execution is letting him down.

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