World Tour Finals SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

DjokerA semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal was not entirely unexpected when the World Tour Finals draw was revealed. But the script took a twist in making the matchup come to fruition, as Nadal won his group while Djokovic finished second in the other foursome.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 46th time in their careers when they collide in the World Tour Finals semis on Saturday afternoon.

Interestingly, Djokovic has a chance to level his head-to-head series against both Nadal and Federer this weekend–the latter in a potential title match. The world No. 1 is 22-23 lifetime in his rivalry with Nadal, but the margin has become increasingly closer on a consistent basis. Djokovic has won all three of their meetings in 2015 and seven of their last eight overall. He is 15-6 at Nadal’s expense on hard courts, including 3-2 indoors and 2-1 at the O2 Arena.

“We (have) played so many times,” Djokovic assured. “I’m going to get ready for that one and hopefully I’ll be able to play at my best.”

Djokovic’s best has been on display almost entirely throughout what will go down as a dominant and historic 2015 campaign, which features three Grand Slam titles. During round-robin action this week, however, the top seed did not showcase the same level. After crushing Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer 7-5, 6-2 and underwhelmed in a 6-3, 7-5 victory over Tomas Berdych on Thursday night.

Aside from his two most recent matches, however, there is little to dislike regarding Djokovic’s chances heading into championship weekend. He is 80-6 for the season and is the three-time defending champion of this event.

Nadal has never won the year-end championship, but he has already done something this week that he had only accomplished once previously in his career. For the first time since 2010, the fifth-ranked Spaniard compiled a perfect 3-0 record in group competition. He drubbed Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-2, rolled over Andy Murray 6-4, 6-1, and outlasted David Ferrer 6-7(2), 6-3, 6-4 on Friday afternoon.
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As well has Nadal has played, the relatively suddenly improvement in form is more likely to pay eventual dividends in 2016 than on Saturday against the toughest of opponents. Facing Djokovic on an indoor hard court–even a slow one–is simply not a good matchup for the 14-time major champion. Having spent two hours and 37 minutes on the court with Ferrer, while Djokovic had the day off, also will not help.

As Nadal said of his opponent, “All the positive things are for him.”

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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31 Comments on World Tour Finals SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

    • Djokovic on rafa:

      “He’s starting to miss less, serve efficiently, use his forehand much better. I know that. I’ve been watching. I know what to expect.”

      I hope he is suprised by rafa’s improved play.

    • no question about it…Nole will be up to the task…but I expect Rafa to do the same…and this Rafa is different than the Rafa who played Nole in 2015…so I expect a competitive match at least…and then who knows…

      Rafa failed to reach GS semis in 2015…this is the first GRAND semifinal he is in…I expect him to fight till the end…

  1. The problem with Rafa, he couldnt take the ball early like Kei, he waits for the ball to come to him, by which time Novak is ready to hit his next shot. Too much playing on clay has led to his problem on the HCs.

    His serve can’t bail him out of troubles, a very difficult match up for Rafa. Not looking good for him, got to think of ways to move up into the court.

  2. I can see Nadal Winning in 3 sets despite of slow start. Djokovic will not continue to sustain level. Djokovic peaked too early in the match.

  3. Its amazing how far ahead of Rafa Novak is at the moment. Toying with him. Rafa cannot anticipate Novak’s shots on either the BH wing or the FH wing. Novak has a better serve, much much better return and better movement on this HC. How on earth can Rafa win unless Novak’s level goes down drastically 🙁

    • The problem is with Rafa’s serve. Djoko could just serve aces at will while Rafa struggles with getting in a first serve. Djoko has a better serve so more difficult to return that, Rafa’s not so hence Djoko can return Rafa’s more easily.

      Rafa could learn to return on his BH by going DTL, going CC and Djoko would’ve anticipated that.

      • True that might as well lose the point on his terms y trying to go DTL than to lose the point on Djokos terms by having to move around the court. Worst part is looking at Djoko, it seems he is functioning at 80% and still getting the job done comfortably .

  4. No, it’s business at usual. Rafa needs to make adjustments. Vamosrafa said he needed to vary his serving. He’s making it too easy for Novak.

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