World Tour Finals preview and predictions

If you’re watching the World Tour Finals this week and have a sense of déjà vu, you won’t be alone. We aren’t still in Paris. This really is London—it’s simply the exact same competitors.

The eight participants at this season’s year-end championship were the eight quarterfinalists in Paris. Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Tomas Berdych had already wrapped up their London spots, but Roger Federer, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Richard Gasquet clinched without too much trouble thanks to their Paris performances.

Even some of the matchups will be the same. With no week of rest in between the two events, tournament organizers tweaked the schedule so that the Paris semifinalists would all have at least a day off prior to their London openers. As a result, Nadal, Djokovic, Ferrer, and Federer all play on Tuesday—with another all-Spanish clash to be followed a by one more installment of the Djokovic-Federer rivalry.

World Tour Finals

Where: London, England
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: $6,000,000
Points: Maximum of 1500

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis:
Group A
Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Stanislas Wawrinka

Group B
Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro, Roger Federer, Richard Gasquet

Although Nadal is one of the undisputed best players of all time, that he has never won the year-end championship is not a huge surprise. The world No. 1 is simply not at his best during the fall swing, and this season—despite almost non-stop domination from March through September—is no exception. While recent results are not encouraging for Nadal’s title hopes, the draw should help him surge into the semifinals. He headlines what is clearly the weaker of the two groups and boasts a combined record of 47-8 against the other three players. Prior to his Paris loss to Ferrer on Saturday, Nadal’s combined winning streaks against the trio stood at a ridiculous 35.

The key for Ferrer was finding himself in the same group with Berdych instead of with Federer. After all, the Spaniard is 7-3 lifetime against Berdych (including 4-1 on indoor hard courts) and 0-14 against Federer. If this pod does–in fact–turn into a battle for second place, it should be a furious one. Neither Berdych nor Wawrinka is in top form, but both have the firepower on serve and from the back of the court necessary to trouble the Spaniards on fast surfaces.

Gasquet, meanwhile, said that a berth in his first year-end championship since 2007 felt almost too good to be true. The dream, realized in part because Andy Murray is out with a back injury, may turn into a nightmare. Gasquet got arguably the worst hand he could have been dealt, landing with Djokovic, Federer, and Del Potro. Djokovic and Del Potro have combined to win five titles this fall and Federer has heated up with a runner-up finish in Basel and a semifinal showing in Paris.

The news also isn’t good for Del Potro, both on and off the court. He drew Djokovic instead of Nadal, and he likely would have preferred Berdych instead of Federer. The 2009 U.S. Open finalists have squared off in three-setters each of the past two weeks, with one going Federer’s way. Furthermore, Del Potro was robbed on his way from Paris to London and a Rosary given to him by Pope Francis I was among the stolen items. In this kind of form, though, Del Potro is capable of overcoming any obstacles.

Round-robin predictions:

Group A
Berdych over Wawrinka in 3
Nadal over Ferrer in 2
Nadal over Berdych in 3
Wawrinka over Ferrer in 3
Nadal over Wawrinka in 2
Ferrer over Berdych in 3

Group B
Del Potro over Gasquet in 3
Djokovic over Federer in 2
Djokovic over Del Potro in 2
Federer over Gasquet in 2
Djokovic over Gasquet in 2
Del Potro over Federer in 3

Semifinals: Del Potro over Nadal in 2, Djokovic over Berdych in 2

Final: Djokovic over Del Potro in 3

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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