World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

The only lower-seeded player to win his first World Tour Finals round-robin match has a chance to take control of Group Ilie Nastase when Rafael Nadal returns to action again on Wednesday. Up next for Nadal is Andy Murray.

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal will take 1-0 World Tour Finals records with them into their 22nd career meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

The head-to-head series stands at 15-6 in favor of Nadal, but it is an even 5-5 on hard courts. It is also tied 1-1 indoors following a 2009 Rotterdam win by Murray and a 7-6(5), 3-6, 7-6(6) thriller at the 2010 World Tour Finals that went to Nadal. Their only previous encounter in 2015 came on the clay courts of Madrid, where the Scot rolled 6-3, 6-2 to capture the title.

Fast forward six months and Nadal is in much better form now. The fifth-ranked Spaniard recently finished runner-up in Beijing and Basel to go along with a semifinal showing in Shanghai and a quarterfinal performance in Paris. He easily maintained momentum on Monday by winning his opener at the O2 6-3, 6-2 over Stan Wawrinka.

Murray enjoyed a similarly routine day against David Ferrer, needing only eight more minutes than Nadal (1:30 to 1:22) to prevail 6-4, 6-4. The world No. 3 is now 10-3 since the U.S. Open with a semifinal appearance in Shanghai and a run to the Paris final.

Whether he likes it or not, Murray seems to be on his way to the semifinals–thus cutting down on his clay-court preparation time for the upcoming Davis Cup final between Great Britain and Belgium. But he got in a week of practice on the red stuff last week and by the looks of his opening match he is motivated to do well in London.

That, along with the low-bouncing surface, is bad news for Nadal. Look for Murray to dictate play and eventually wear down his opponent thanks in part to the indoor conditions, but both players should advance to the semis in the end.

Pick: Murray in 3

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