Winston-Salem preview and predictions

Many players are already on the U.S. Open grounds, preparing for the year’s final Grand Slam that begins next Monday. Others are physically present at the Winston-Salem Open, but their minds may already be in New York City. Thus it will be another hard-to-predict tournament, as just about anything can happen at a 250-pointer held the week before a major. Pablo Carreno Busta is arguably the favorite as the top seed and a former champion, but he will have plenty of competition.

Winston-Salem Open

Where: Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Surface: Hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $691,415

Top seed: Pablo Carreno Busta
2017 champion: Roberto Bautista Agut (not playing)

Draw analysis: David Goffin was scheduled to be the No. 1 seed, but he predictably withdrew after retiring from his Cincinnati semifinal match against eventual runner-up Roger Federer. Thus it is Carreno Busta, who triumphed at this tournament in 2016, leading the way. The 12^th-ranked Spaniard will likely begin his campaign against 2015 finalist Pierre-Hugues Herbert, but for the most part Carreno Busta should have a relatively smooth path at least to the semifinals. Although Hyeon Chung is in the same section of the bracket, the South Korean has struggled with injuries and is a shadow of the player that was on display earlier in the season.

Elsewhere in the bottom half, Kyle Edmund could meet an in-form Leonardo Mayer in the second round. That quarter also includes Steve Johnson, who played eventual champion Novak Djokovic tough in Cincinnati, and Andrey Rublev.

Despite Goffin’s absence, plenty of talent remains at the top of the draw. The winner of a second-round showdown between Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev should be able to capitalize on the opportunity that has presented itself with Goffin gone. Marton Fucsovics will also challenge for that quarterfinal spot. Other contenders in the top half include Gilles Simon, Ryan Harrison, Sam Querrey, and Damir Dzumhur.

First-round upset alert: Ricardas Berankis over Tennys Sandgren. Sandgren should win this one, as Berankis has been hopeless during the hard-court swing. The world No. 104 has played the entire U.S. Open Series and has not won a single set, losing in the Atlanta first round, the Washington, D.C. first round, and the first round of qualifying in both Toronto and Cincinnati. But he has at least been playing on hard courts. Sandgren only suited up in Cincinnati, where he lost right away in qualifying.

Second-round upset alert: Ryan Harrison over (12) Gilles Simon. Harrison should have no trouble with local college standout Borna Gojo, at which point the American would run into Simon. Although the Frenchman leads the head-to-head series 3-0, they have not faced each other since 2012 and Harrison is the one who is still in his prime at 26 years old. The world No. 56 finished runner-up in Atlanta, while Simon has not yet played on hard courts this summer and has not won a match since Wimbledon.

Hot: Nikoloz Basilashvili, Nicolas Jarry, Marton Fucsovics, Jaume Munar, Matteo Berrettini

Cold: Hyeon Chung, Filip Krajinovic, Sam Querrey, Malek Jaziri, Ricardas Berankis

Quarterfinal predictions: Alex de Minaur over Ryan Harrison, Damir Dzumhur over Andreas Seppi, Steve Johnson over Leonardo Mayer, and Pablo Carreno Busta over Matteo Berrettini

Semifinals: de Minaur over Dzumhur and Johnson over Carreno Busta

Final: Johnson over de Minaur

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