Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

Ten years later, there will be no final rematch of the 2008 Wimbledon epic between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. But the All-England Club faithful will be treated to a different historic rivalry two days earlier–Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic in the semis.

The two all-time greats are set to face each other for a hard-to-believe 52nd time in their careers on Friday, with Djokovic holding a lead so slim (26-25) that it will be all tied if he loses this one. Nadal had dropped seven in a row and 11 of their last 12 meetings before taking their two most recent encounters, also in semifinal showdowns (6-2, 6-4 last spring in Madrid and 7-6(4), 6-3 a couple of months ago in Rome). They have not collided on grass since the 2011 Wimbledon title match, which Djokovic won 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3.

Surprisingly, Nadal had not been back to even the quarterfinals of this tournament since that 2011 result. But it has all turned around for the world No. 1 this fortnight, with straight-set romps over Dudi Sela, Mikhail Kukushkin, Alex De Minaur, and Jiri Vesely prior to an epic 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals. Nadal is now an awesome 35-2 this season and 31-1 in his last 32 matches since retiring against Marin Cilic in the Australian Open quarters.

“Anything could have happened (against Del Potro), so this is a big achievement for me to get to the semifinals at Wimbledon,” the Spaniard said following Wednesday’s thriller. “In the last set there was a little of everything: great points, great rallies, he was hitting crazy with his forehands. I tried to resist and maintain focus.

“Now is the moment to enjoy and then start to recover, as it was a tough physical battle. [Djokovic] is one of the toughest opponents. I am just excited to be in the semis.”

While Nadal has finally found greener pastures at Wimbledon following years of SW19 frustration, Djokovic’s all-around game appears to be back in business for the first time in a year. Physical problems derailed the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018 for him, but the Djokovic of old has returned. The 21st-ranked Serb picked up some momentum on clay and has only improved on grass, with a runner-up performance at Queen’s Club and wins this fortnight over Tennys Sandgren, Horacio Zeballos, Kyle Edmund, Karen Khachanov, and Kei Nishikori. Djokovic is 17-3 in his last 20 matches since being saddled with a 6-6 mark through his first 12 of the year.

“I feel (that) if I have to compare the game that I’ve played, the level of tennis that I’ve had those years and today, I think it’s pretty close,” Djokovic assessed after beating Nishikori 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 on Wednesday. “I like the level of tennis that I’m playing right now; I really do. I think with the performances I’ve had, I deserve to be in the semifinals. I don’t want to stop here. I hope I can get a chance to fight for a trophy.”

While this Djokovic is something different than what was on display from January through April, his sample size of success remains small. The 12-time major champion owns just a single top-10 win since Rome last spring, and that has come at the expense of a slumping Grigor Dimitrov in the Queen’s Club second round. Toppling Nadal in the Wimbledon semifinals is a whole different beast of a task.

Nadal has quite simply been the best player this entire year and the best player throughout this tournament. Although it obviously isn’t clay, conditions are suiting him well this fortnight. If more of the same continues and he produces a similar level to what Del Potro saw on the other side of the net, the 32-year-old should advance to his sixth Wimbledon final.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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56 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. On a side note- Ricky or anyone- do you know which half plays first at the US open? Trying to book tickets to NY and want to make it on the days that Rafa plays.

    • Afraid you have to wait for the draw day to see which half goes first or even which half Rafa is in. Supposedly that’s all drawn randomly. Good luck! The good news is that Roger will be in the other half so it will be possible to trade with a fed fan if push comes to shove. Then there’s also the question of which court… They do NOT make it easy for fans that want to see particular players.

      • Thanks ramarA. I am going to the cincy day session on qf day gambling that they will give the night session to the cincy darling – fed and more importantly, rafa will at least reach the quarters. Last year i watched him lose to kyrgios and the year before that he was ousted before the qfs by coric or lopez🤦🏻‍♂️.

        But i have seen rafa lift the trophy in 2013 and 2017 at ny. Hope this year it will be something similar based on the form displayed

  2. They’re taking their time with the Djokovic v Anderson prediction. Can’t afford to get this one wrong. Must stop the bleeding lol

  3. This Rafa nole battle forced me to write something here yet again! Wow what a contest! Commiserations to all Rafa fans and congrats to Nole fans.

    I really felt Rafa would win this given how well he had started returning and hitting his forehand DTL and backhand CC. He missed some chances and Novak found awesome serves in difficult moments.

    Don’t worry Rafans! He’ll take so many positive from this and improve further. This was arguably the best quality match in their rivalry and there were NO lapses.

    Massive respect for Djokovic as well and great to see him back in the mix.

    Hello to Cherly Murray as well! great to see you back 🙂

    Enjoy the final (which could be a very tricky affair for Novak if Anderson is feeling okay physically)!

    Good bye tenngranders!

    • lastly, many posters here are dicussing the nadal serve. I agree the serve was the biggest differences but ONLY the first serve. Don’t forget he won 57% second serve points in this semi and won a staggering 62% against Delpo!

      It is the first serve he needs to work on a bit. His second serve has improved quite a lot and he is more willing than ever to implement his all-court abilities!

      • VR,

        You are killing me with these little nuggets is analysis. I really wish you would reconsider your decision. We still have a great core group of dedicated tennis fans here. You were an integral part of it for so long.

        Now that Cheryl Murray is back on board, it’s only going to get better. There is so much tennis to look forward to still.

        I agree with you about the serve. It’s the first serve that needs some beefing up. The second serve is strong. This was tough because Rafa did have his chances to break in the latter stages of the fifth set. It was a very close match and could have gone either way.

        I am thinking that you are right that Rafa will take some real positives out of this result. He showed such heart and guts and will. I am SO proud to be his fan!

      • Good to hear from you, VR, and I hope you’re well.

        Rafa needs to work on his first serve a lot, but it would be surprising if he can do much about it at this point. If he could have, he would have done so long ago, given the importance of the shot. Difference in ace count this match was 23-9, plus I don’t know how many service winners.

        Second serve doesn’t mean much, and Rafa’s high pct. that you mention mostly reflects the fact that Novak’s ROS wasn’t that great in this match, esp. on 2nd serve. Many average Nadal second serves were returned with little depth or direction, and Rafa generally pounced on those to win the point.

        Nadal had the advantage once a rally started. (Novak won 4 more points overall, but 14 of those were aces).

  4. If it were Fed, he would have asked for the roof to be open. Djokovic is such a poor sport. That’s why he has so few fans and everyone adores Fed and Rafa.

    • It is again the organizers who are blame for making the rule complicated without having a clear policy. They ensured that the players’ bias comes into the decision by having them both agree to what the roof position should be..

      An outdoor tournament should be played outdoors whenever possible

  5. It’s tough for me to have respect for Nole after today. I have always find it hard to get behind him. Much easier to root for Fed or Rafa or Delpo.

  6. I still didn’t give my congrats to Novak fans..especially RC…So,congrats RC!!…

    Also thank u very much for the commies Kevin,Eugene,Joe,Benny…Am i missed anyone?That’s very awesome from u guys!

  7. Don’t have to get angry with Djoko; I think Rafa was agreeable to the roof remaining close for the whole match.

    I know Djoko was also eager to win this match, not so much against Rafa, but to prove he’s ready to win a slam. Watched his team courtside and you could feel their anxiousness. They’re not the usual relaxed team of 2011-2015 when Djoko was winning so much.

    Djoko did play well, clutch when facing and saving BPs. Rafa otoh, wasn’t clutch even when serving for set, especially TB set. He throwing in poor service games to lose serves after breaking Djoko’s serve is another problem that Rafa and his team should address.

    Rafa losing the TB to Delpo in the QF had cost him precious energy, losing the third set TB to Djoko too, so much so that Rafa felt he had nothing much left after the SF match that he had given his all. I hope Rafa address this problem as well, it’s no good to spend an hour or so playing a TB when you’d the chance to win with a SP and yet ended up losing.

      • Rafa and Djoko, sometimes you have to give and take. I remember in that FO2013 SF, when they’re about to start the fifth set, Djoko requested that they water the court but Rafa deemed it unnecessary and so they didn’t water the court. This time, perhaps Rafa gave in to Djoko’s decision.

        There’re still some differences playing indoor or outdoors where these two are concerned – Rafa could deal with the elements better with his topspin game, whilst Djoko’s game is best suited where there’s no issue of elements involved. However in this particular match, I don’t think it mattered, as Rafa was running out of steam by or nearing the end of it.

        Had Anderson held his serve after breaking serve in set three and won the set, who knows he might win in four sets and saved himself two hours of court time (and energy) and so Rafa/Djoko could start at say 6pm playing outdoor with ample daylight for another three hours. As things turned out, the first SF dragged on longer than expected and so we had what we had now.

        Sometimes, things worked for Rafa and sometimes they worked against him, and they might be out of Rafa’s or anyone else control.

  8. This question about the roof is just an excuse, really.We’ll never know whether it would have affected the outcome.

    Tactics may have affected it, but since they’ve played so many times, there are no secrets.It came down to one or two points . I do feel gutted for Nadal fans , just as I was for Fed.

  9. Rafa has lots of positives from Wimbledon. Drop shots and net play are the two biggest pluses. I think he should continue to come to net.

    Djoker could have won with roof open since he always plays Rafa tough. Even their Rome match was tough. But roof open would have definitely suited Rafa.

    Ironically neither Rafa nor Djokovic have won any of the five setters being 2-1 sets down. It just goes to show how much that tie-break was important. I think Rafa was slightly the better player overall. Look at the number of winners if you leave out the aces. Rafa outwinnered Djoker which is usually not the case. I think clutch serving from Djoker made the difference.

  10. But no matter where the roof is, someone will always say it was a factor.Just as the rain came in 2001 for Henman, would he have won?

    This roof at Wimby needs to be let half open, keep everyone happy !

  11. How many more slams do you guys think Rafa has based on what we saw ? Honest opinions ? N please break by french n non french..and Federer n djokovic too ?

    • If anyone can tell you this he would be a great astrologer. Did anyone see the sudden decline of Djoker? And we are not sure if he loses today, would he again become contender. Even if he wins, we are not sure that he would definitely be back as his ranking is going to be outside 4 still and will get bad draws.

      Who could predict that Fed would lose in Wimby QF when he did not lose serve in four rounds. Who could predict the great Rafa and Fed run where they won last 6 slams?

      One thing is that Rafa needs to win RG to have his confidence high up . The year he loses RG, he would start doubting himself more and more. I still think he can play 2 good RG but this year RG was not as easy as last year and next year might be more difficult if you throw Djoker in the picture as well.

      Rafa needs to take good time off at the end of the year now , and he now most probably would be very clear of Fed in terms of ranking points unless Fed wins USO. He should understand that he can go directly to tournaments and win the whole thing. He nearly won this year on grass. Skip Beijing, play only Shanghai , Paris and WTF only. Also he can skip one clay tourney maybe Madrid.

    • Strange question. No one can foresee what will happen in future. If we’re to assume that these players are to remain fit and healthy, I think Djoko can win a few more, on the HCs and maybe one more Wimbledon (not including 2018 which he may or may not win).

      On clay, if Rafa is still playing top class tennis then it’ll be difficult for anyone else to win the FO. I have a feeling the FO may get more competitive once Rafa stops winning there, as Thiem, maybe Tsitipas, Sasha and some other youngsters may take turns to win there.

      I do feel Wimbledon will be more open as Fed is getting older still come next year and beyond, and any big server on their good day, could reach the final (like Anderson here), maybe Cilic, Delpo, Anderson and Raonic, will have their chances too, besides the trio of Djoko, Rafa and Murray (when he’s healthy).

      I don’t know about Rafa, maybe he can defend his USO title and wins another AO title; and/or one more Wimbledon, in addition to one or two more FOs? Rafa still has the drive and desire, and he’s playing well at the moment, he just needs to improve his serve; he plays better on the HCs than on grass, if he plays with his varieties and aggression like the way he does at Wimbledon, then I think he’s in good position to defend his USO title. Given his good records vs Djoko at the USO, I think I’ll favor him over Djoko there.

  12. I want the AO real bad for him. He has lost it narrowly twice n once got injured in final n thrice in qtrs. I hope he gets to win it once more to complete double career slam. If there is one slam I want him to win most it is AO

  13. So, so, so sad that Rafa didn’t win
    I couldn’t watch it and didn’t even take my phone me so, only saw Novak celebrating from a TV set at arestaurant… spoiled the rest of the dinner 😞

  14. Well today after reflecting this match leaves a bitter taste. Rafa would have won that match if there was no roof as everyone knows except the people here who seek to demean him. If they had to play under the roof for legitimate reasons then fine but playing on a hot sunny day! Yesterday was also windy and we all know who plays great in the wind and who emphatically doesn’t! Rafa would have won it significantly earlier as well. Just about everyone gave the edge to rafa outdoors and Nole indoors.
    The whole episode was a shambles and one player shouldn’t have the right to make a huge call which affected everyone…the players, the spectators, people on the hill, the viewing public and then having to open the roof for the women’s final!

    • “Rafa would have won that match if there was no roof as everyone knows except the people here who seek to demean him.”

      You don’t know that, just like you dont know if Nadal won the 3rd set TB that he wouldve won.

      Psychology and performance based on circumstances are variable.

      • I have nothing to say to a mega troll who i first had an argument with when he trolled Nole shamelessly at Rg posting every 3 minutes that Nole was a cheater and that half his slams wins were illegitimate. Then you laughed and laughed when he lost to Cecchinato when I was cheering for him to win. Unlike many people on this site who automatically demean the rivals of their favourite player i like Nole and Federer! You spend most of your time openly accusing players like rafa and Nole of cheating and I have nothing to say to someone who just pours out hate.
        I was cheering for Federer earlier as well but you simply wouldn’t understand how you can support a player but also like and respect their rivals.

        • And I stand by those comments, Djokovic has won at least 4-6 grand slams with gamesmanship being a major factor.

          It’s no disrespect to him, it’s simply the reality. Still a great player.

    • Well said, amy! Completely agree!

      We do move on, but bitter taste remains for some time…it is simply not fair and Wimby organizers are huge disappointment!

      Hope Rafa doesn’t let this disappointment get to him! He has made tremendous effort by fighting like he did and giving his all under unfavorable circumstances. Respect for the great Champion!

      Vamos Rafa!

  15. Djokovic is entitled to have the match played under the same setting for the whole match. Playing half a match indoors and half outdoors doesnt make sense to me.

    You’re just clutching at straws now, Nadal had his chances. He was gifted another circumstantial donation with the reschedule which always advantages him. It effectively made the 3rd set win by Djokovic null and void.

    Its time to move on and enjoy the final.

  16. Natashao i wrote you a long post which disappeared and then another which also disappeared!
    Will try later but thanks hon! Maximum respect for Rafa!!😀

    • Natashao do you remember what rafa said to Toni during his 08 wimby final with Fed? :he may win it but I will not lose it.
      That’s exactly what happened and I don’t think he will be disheartened. He knows if the roof was open he would have won.

      • Agree with you 100% on the roof management. It was originally intended for bad weather only, not darkness. Also, the roof staying closed the next day is a dumb rule. Tennis should be played outdoors.

        Given Rafas record indoors vs outdoors in sunny weather, there’s little doubt that it would have made the difference in this close match.

        I hold nothing against Nole for wanting to keep it closed and he played amazing to beat Rafa and executed at key moments better than Rafa did.

        I’ll be happy for either guy to win today but I’m rooting for the underdog in Anderson because it would obviously mean more to him.

        • Good to see you here hawks!!!
          Honestly i am so tired from writing and then rewriting posts!
          It does rankle with me that rafa lost under these ridiculous circumstances where an anomalous decision over the roof was such a factor! We are just about the only Rafa fans on the site who are also to a lesser extent Nole fans but I honestly find it hard now to feel happy for him in the ways i would if he had beaten rafa fair and square out in the open!

          • These are the tough losses for sure Amy. I couldn’t even watch the match live excerpt for a few points. I’m way too tense watching Rafa in later round slams other than RG and can only watch after his matches are over.

            I’m so happy to hear that you are involved in the anti Trump movement in the UK. Scary times in the world today with Trump in bed with Putin, Brexit and nationalism rising in many parts of the world.

            I’m ashamed for humanity.

            Trump is a symptom, not the problem. Today, just 1 in 2 Americans disapprove of his performance. That’s the problem.

            Fight the good fight Amy and Vamos Rafa no matter what.

          • Thanks hawks! These last 2 years have been a terrible eye opener in so far as human nature is concerned. Trump is incredibly unpopular in Britain and Europe…in some countries up to 90%
            if the population strongly disapprove of him. The anti trump movement here is very passionate and strong but this country is in a dangerous state of moral decline over brexit.
            I respect rafa even more after he played Nole so close indoors while suffering the fatigue of the Delpo match.

          • Agreed Amy. Rafa, more than any other professional athlete, embodies what it means to be a good human being especially given his accomplishments.

            From the Kipling poem “if” posted at Wimbledon:

            “If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
            If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
            If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster,
            And treat those two impostors just the same;”

            Rafa’s ability to live this on and off the court is what separates him from the rest making him GOAT in my opinion.

  17. Even if the roof was open Novak Djokovic will still win.
    Rafa can’t beat this current Novak on any court.

    Djokovic is getting better and his form and gameplay is improving.

  18. As with jim i don’t have anything to say to you Stanley. I will leave this post and then I will simply not read your posts as I won’t read his. You haven’t been here in ages mercifully but here you are back when Rafa loses patronising sneering and gloating. You are just a troll.

      • Fools never change they just continue in their folly over and over again.
        You are getting better MORON, keep going.

        Vamos Hawktard, Vamos!

    • Amy are you referring to me?
      If you are that’s not right/fair, please mind your language.
      We can disagree on something’s and still have an enjoyable and nice conversation.

      Just chill, I understand where you are and I assure you everything will be alright.

  19. I never understood why some people live their lifes through famous people. Is your own life that silly? Do you think and feel some kind of accomplishment when they win? These people have no clue who you are and could care less, so how about you guys stop thinking you are living their life.

    It’s almost funny watching adults defending their hero, who will never ever think about them, yet you guys are fighting about the most stupid things ever.
    Nadal don’t care about any of you, Djokovic don’t care about any of you nor does Roger care about any of you, and whatever they archieve in life has nothing to do with you guys.

    • True statement, some take it way too serious.
      Guy’s just chill and enjoy the game.

      Let’s not fight over meaningless things, let’s disagrees, agree and respect each other while doing it.
      Let’s just have fun and support the players we like.

    • So basically, passionate sports fans shouldn’t exist? This is probably the worst comment of all time. Sincerely, everyone

  20. Am I the only person here who thinks that keeping the conditions the same through the whole is a perfectly acceptable argument? I’m not saying it’s the better argument, but it’s absolutely no worse than arguing for changing the conditions of a match after 3 sets. I mean, couldn’t you argue that if they did open the roof the next day that then it wouldn’t be fair to Novak? Is there any right answer here?

    I’m honestly kinda disappointed in all the over-the-top roof-blaming… I at least don’t understand how people don’t see how wanting to not completely change the conditions of the match after 3 sets makes a lot of sense.

    Of course we would prefer for it be played outdoors like every other non-rain matches. But this was a good reason to at least consider keeping it open. It’s obviously harder to admit if you’re so passionate about Rafa, but an unbiased observer can at very least admit that it makes sense to want to change the conditions part way through, even if it’s a new day.

    Think about when it’s being played outdoors, and then they have to close the roof mid-match. That sucks! I don’t care who it favors or doesn’t favor- it’s not a good thing. But in that case it cannot be controlled because we can’t control Mother Nature. But if we have the ability to keep the match played how it was from the start, I think that makes perfect sense.

    But I understand that because Rafa has never been very good under a roof, you guys are going to be really, really
    Annoyed when the roof is closed. I get it. 3 of the 4 majors now have roofs, though, and 2 of them have had them for a long time now. It’s just part of the sport.

    I’m not saying this myself, but couldn’t a Novak fanatic say something like, “Why should we change the conditions of the match mid-Way through just because you guys don’t like that Rafa has never played great under a roof?” Wouldn’t that be just as fair of an argument at least?

    I guess I’m just surprised by how overwhelmingly the blame is being put on the roof by some Rafa fans. Especially considering that Novak is arguably just as good outdoors as he is indoors, like it would have been a guarantee that HE wouldn’t have played better outdoors? C’mon guys. The roof? Rafa looked pretty goddamn great to me in that match, and it was under the roof! The few issues he had looked more like a mental thing to me. He played really freakin’ well. He could have easily won the match! So why should people feel bad about the roof when he can clearly play very well under it, and the other player has to play under the same roof?

    I’m sorry Rafa fans, I always try to stay as positive as I can on here, but I just can’t keep my mouth shut on this one… Your argument is no better, or worse, than the other sides’s argument, the way I see it.

    (This is not an anti-Rafa rant, so Trolls of Grandstand- please don’t take this comment as an invitation to troll.)

    • Not when it’s next day and no threat of rain in my opinion.

      Hotter conditions affects how the ball plays and given the closeness of the match, I think it would have made the difference but one can never know.

      The match should have been moved to Court 1 earlier and the roof was never intended for night play.

      Tennis should be played outdoors unless it’s raining. I’m not saying stop the match to reopen the roof but next day is already a change in conditions to some degree.

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