Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Anderson vs. Isner

When the Wimbledon draw was revealed two weeks ago, the top-half semifinal was expected to be a rematch of last year’s final between Roger Federer and Marin Cilic. It turned out to be Kevin Anderson vs. John Isner.

Cilic exited early and Federer, in even more shocking fashion, fell to Anderson from two sets up during quarterfinal action on Wednesday. The 6’8” South African’s reward is an incredible opportunity to reach his second Grand Slam title match, but it certainly won’t be easy against Isner. These two former college rivals have squared off on 11 previous occasions, with Isner leading the head-to-head series 8-3. It was once 3-3 before the 6’10” American reeled off five wins in a row, including two during this stretch that required nothing but tiebreakers–7-6(3), 6-7(8), 7-6(7) at the 2012 Shanghai Masters and 6-7(3), 7-6(2), 7-6(2) in the 2013 Atlanta final.

Something along those lines was expected when Isner went up against Milos Raonic in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. And that is how things transpired through two sets, but the world No. 10 eventually took control and prevailed 6-7(5), 7-6(7), 6-4, 6-3. In what is by far his best-ever performance at the All-England Club, Isner preceded that result by beating Yannick Maden, Ruben Bemelmans, Radu Albot, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. The reigning Miami Masters champion has not been broken a single time through five rounds, but he did have to save two match points from 15-40 down at 4-5 in his fifth set against Bemelmans.

“Pure elation right now,” Isner said following his win over Raonic. “Very, very happy to be in this position right now in the semifinals. With how I’m feeling physically and mentally, I’m in a very good spot. I think I can keep doing damage here. This is amazing; it’s by far the best Grand Slam I’ve ever played in my career, and I’ve been playing for 11 years. I’m super happy. To do it here at Wimbledon makes it even a little bit more special.”

Anderson had also never reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals, but he advanced to the second week three times in his previous four appearances and he has not lost in less than five sets at this event since 2014 (to Andy Murray in the fourth round). So the No. 8 seed’s performance comes as no real surprise–at least no real surprise until Wednesday. On the heels of victories over Norbert Gombos, Andreas Seppi, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Gael Monfils, Anderson saved one match point and stunned Federer 2-6, 6-7(5), 7-5, 6-4, 13-11. Paling only in comparison to Isner, the 32-year-old has blasted 124 aces in five matches–at least 20 on every occasion.

“John has got arguably one of the best serves of all time on the tour,” Anderson said of his opponent who has fired 160 aces this fortnight (64 past Bemelmans alone). “Especially in the last few months what’s really impressive is just his first-serve percentage, as well, never mind how accurate and big the serve is.

“In the matches I’ve played him, obviously taking care of your serve is the first priority. It’s a match that’s often won on just a couple of points here and there. I feel confident in baseline exchanges quite a lot with John. At the same time, because he’s such a big player, has so much firepower, you just can’t be too patient. You have to still be aggressive and put him on the back foot.”

That’s not going to happen when Isner serves, as he has put no less than a whopping 69 percent of his first serves in play during every match of this tournament. The pressure will be on Anderson to hold every time he toes the line–something he failed to do four times against Monfils and three times against Federer.

Isner has played the big points better than Anderson over their last five meetings and based on how he is serving these days, more of the same is likely to continue.

Pick: Isner in 4

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