Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

Ten years later, there will be no final rematch of the 2008 Wimbledon epic between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. But the All-England Club faithful will be treated to a different historic rivalry two days earlier–Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic in the semis.

The two all-time greats are set to face each other for a hard-to-believe 52nd time in their careers on Friday, with Djokovic holding a lead so slim (26-25) that it will be all tied if he loses this one. Nadal had dropped seven in a row and 11 of their last 12 meetings before taking their two most recent encounters, also in semifinal showdowns (6-2, 6-4 last spring in Madrid and 7-6(4), 6-3 a couple of months ago in Rome). They have not collided on grass since the 2011 Wimbledon title match, which Djokovic won 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3.

Surprisingly, Nadal had not been back to even the quarterfinals of this tournament since that 2011 result. But it has all turned around for the world No. 1 this fortnight, with straight-set romps over Dudi Sela, Mikhail Kukushkin, Alex De Minaur, and Jiri Vesely prior to an epic 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals. Nadal is now an awesome 35-2 this season and 31-1 in his last 32 matches since retiring against Marin Cilic in the Australian Open quarters.

“Anything could have happened (against Del Potro), so this is a big achievement for me to get to the semifinals at Wimbledon,” the Spaniard said following Wednesday’s thriller. “In the last set there was a little of everything: great points, great rallies, he was hitting crazy with his forehands. I tried to resist and maintain focus.

“Now is the moment to enjoy and then start to recover, as it was a tough physical battle. [Djokovic] is one of the toughest opponents. I am just excited to be in the semis.”

While Nadal has finally found greener pastures at Wimbledon following years of SW19 frustration, Djokovic’s all-around game appears to be back in business for the first time in a year. Physical problems derailed the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018 for him, but the Djokovic of old has returned. The 21st-ranked Serb picked up some momentum on clay and has only improved on grass, with a runner-up performance at Queen’s Club and wins this fortnight over Tennys Sandgren, Horacio Zeballos, Kyle Edmund, Karen Khachanov, and Kei Nishikori. Djokovic is 17-3 in his last 20 matches since being saddled with a 6-6 mark through his first 12 of the year.

“I feel (that) if I have to compare the game that I’ve played, the level of tennis that I’ve had those years and today, I think it’s pretty close,” Djokovic assessed after beating Nishikori 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 on Wednesday. “I like the level of tennis that I’m playing right now; I really do. I think with the performances I’ve had, I deserve to be in the semifinals. I don’t want to stop here. I hope I can get a chance to fight for a trophy.”

While this Djokovic is something different than what was on display from January through April, his sample size of success remains small. The 12-time major champion owns just a single top-10 win since Rome last spring, and that has come at the expense of a slumping Grigor Dimitrov in the Queen’s Club second round. Toppling Nadal in the Wimbledon semifinals is a whole different beast of a task.

Nadal has quite simply been the best player this entire year and the best player throughout this tournament. Although it obviously isn’t clay, conditions are suiting him well this fortnight. If more of the same continues and he produces a similar level to what Del Potro saw on the other side of the net, the 32-year-old should advance to his sixth Wimbledon final.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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34 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. Well to all Rafa and Djoker fans , given Djoker’s recent form and the kind of mid-match capitulation that he was going thru , I expected him to lose to Fed or Rafa on outdoor/indoor grass . Heck, I expected him to lose to either of them in mud/concrete tennis court. Just the way he came thru, meant he could win against them on any conditions, it was more of a mental battle that he was fighting with himself.

    And reminder to all Rafa or Fed fans, Djoker has beaten both in all Majors which means he can play on any surface.

    Djoker’s coach Vajda very smartly said “Playing under closed roof favored us. However, we lost the momentum due to play halting the night before as we were right at the top at that time.”

  2. Vajda’s comment made me laughed. Anyway I said it before, I was impressed with Djoko here at Wimbledon. What he lacked was confidence and now that he won the title, I’m sure he would have the belief that he’s close to getting back to his best level. What he lacks now perhaps is his fitness, as I could see (random tennis fans could see it too) that he looked tired after the third set TB against Rafa. Its maybe because playing against Rafa took a lot out of anyone; but he’s fine after a days rest, as he looked OK against Anderson (or maybe Anderson was the more tired of the two). He had played for three consecutive days but fortunately it’s three hours for three sets, two hours for two sets and then two hours for the final, so it’s not as taxing as say having to play five sets for five hours in one day for three consecutive days.

  3. All people are talking about here is how the roof closed doesnt suit Rafa .Or a watered court.It doesn’t make good reading when trying to consider him as GOAT !

  4. Rafa’s fans are always sore when he loses it. If you have a bunch of fan girls, who rarely talk logic, think they know more about players and their coaches, thats when you appreciate Roddick was absolutely correct to silence them when they started GOAT debate on twitter.

    • fedexal,

      I am going to guve you the same warning I did to grassgoat. Cut the crap about tefrrrung to female posted on this site as fan girls! We are grown women and deserve respect. Would you want to be referred to as a Fed fanboy who doesn’t know anything? This sexist misogynistic garbage has no place in a tennis discussion. The female Rafa fans here are knowledgeable about tennis and are more than just fans F Rafa. We deserve to be treated as the serious tennis fans we are.

      Don’t give yourself airs. I have probably watched this sport longer than you have been alive. I promise you that there is nothing you can tell me about this sport! Do not demean and condescend to the female posters here, because nobody died a day made you God!

      • I can’t be referred as Fed fanboy as I have guts to call spade the spade.
        Thanks for guessing my age! Never knew I have mentioned it anywhere.

        I am not going to debate with an elderly lady, because the culture in which I have spent all my life motivates me to be frank and not talk crap. Unfortunately, everyone is not so blessed !

        • fedexal,

          You are all over the place. First I am just one of a bunch of Rafa fangirls. Now I am an elderly lady. Get it together! As a matter of fact, I am somewhere in between. But you are all over the place.

          It’s fair game to go after Rafa. Ricky has said this is not a Rafa fan site. However, it is something else entirely to go after specifically female Rafa fans on this site. We do not deserve to be degraded or demeaned or condescended to in any way. That is not okay with me and I do not intend to tolerate it,

          Our opinions and thoughts deserve the same respect as any other poster, be they men or women. But it is beyond insulting to be singled out for being a female in a derogatory manner.

          I have been chatting with the female Rafa fans on this site for a long time now. We may not always agree, even as Rafa fans. But we do try to listen to each other and at least give respect to everyone’s opinions. That is just common decency.

  5. I think the whole roof thing is really a tempest in a teapot. Yes, Wimbledon is an outdoor tournament. Yes, they should have opened the roof in fine weather. But let’s be honest. Had Rafa won his SF match, there would be no complaining here. So all of this very much sounds like sour grapes. In contrast, I might add, I have not seen a single Fed fan on this site complain that he was relegated to Court 1 in the QF.

    The fact is, no one knows whether Rafa would have beaten Djokovic had the roof been opened on the 2nd day. Nor does anyone know that Fed would have beaten Anderson had his match been played on CC. Most here seem to agree that the relevant rules (tie-breaks, open roof, etc) should be changed in various ways. Can’t we leave it at that?

    • Yeah Joe…For me,we can leave at that…What happened is already happened…We also already know the winner…Novak deserves the Trophy…For me,Rafa also has a chance to win..but,as i expected when he faced Novak…especially on grass..things also could go the other way for him…

      I can’t wait to see his NA swings campaign…Hopefully,it will be better than last year…NA!…Here we come!!Wooohoooo!!

      • Nobody knows the answer fedexal; we can only guess. My guess is the answer from both players would not be different from what they had given now.

        Rafa losing that TB had nothing to do with the roof anyway, as he’s losing TBs more than he’s winning them these days even when he was in good positions to win them. It’s more to do with the state of his mind at that time during the TB, and of course the state of his game at that time too.

      • fedexal…Rafa would ALWAYS,ALWAYS prefer to play with roof open..except when it’s raining…I can assure u that…

        • There are many problems with Wimbledon.

          1. No play on Sunday makes for a heavy schedule on Monday. One long match anywhere on Monday and you are gone. And a long match is a fair probability as all are tough matches.

          2. No tie break created a havoc this time around. With all due respect to Isner-Anderson , people lost interest in that match when it moved beyond 10 all.

          3. Playing under roof closed. If your schedule has gone wrong due to your own rules , move the final from Sunday to Monday and let Rafa-Nole play on Saturday under open skies.

          Rafa made a mess of his schedule when he had a knee problem at the year end. Fed made a mess of his schedule when playing Canada last year and playing Rotterdam and 2 grass court events back to back. He looked a little tired when Anderson match went deep in fifth set.

          Scheduling is so important for top players and Wimbledon made a mess of it. But they wont change their rules. No-Tiebreak in fifth would continue to happen.

          • I especially agree with point no.3.

            The Wimbledon committee was being unfair to Rafa/Djoko because they wanted Rafa/Djoko to start their match at 8 pm, with the possibility of the match having to continue on the next day, and so the winner won’t have a day’s rest before the final. Is that fair to the winner of that match?

            I think postponing the final to Monday would be a better option, to be fair to both finalists; as Anderson because of his long SF match would welcome another day of rest, and Djoko too so that he didn’t need to play three days in a row.

  6. Lucky!…Do u have the same thought as mine?That Rafa unintentionally helped Nole found his game back?Don’t get me wrong,Nole is already on his way back to his former self…But,i think Rafa helped him found it sooner…In that semi..We all know that Rafa & Roger be able to make Nole perform at his very best whenever they meet…U agree?

    • Mira, it’s a matter of time Djoko will find his game and his way back. Like what Rafa said in the past, it’s not that he (Rafa) didn’t know how to play tennis anymore (after his injuries), so the same thing applies to Djoko here.

      Djoko will always be a tough player to beat even for Fed and Rafa. Rafa can’t be blamed for losing here, thus helping Djoko to regain his confidence. It’s not Rafa’s fault that the match had to start at 8pm Friday and so the conditions didn’t favor him.

      The way Rafa played, with aggression and varieties, I’m positive that as long as he plays this way, plus improves his serves, he can beat Djoko. Both Rafa and Djoko may not be playing as well as when they were in 2013, but Rafa is playing better tennis now than Djoko is (bear in mind Rafa played many more clay matches than Djoko before arriving at Wimbledon and he did not play any warm up event whilst Djoko did and reached a final).

      We’ll have to wait and see how both players play after this Wimbledon. Rafa is a positive person, he’ll move on from here. The positive thing now is that Rafa and we know that he can play on grass, has the game to win on grass (even without a good serve), if he gets back his 2017 serve, it’ll make much positive difference to his game on grass.

      I just hope Rafa doesn’t overplay, skips Laver Cup in future and stays fit and healthy (esp his knees), so that he need not stop and start due to injuries.

  7. Yeah!….Agree with everything u said Lucky!…I also hope that Rafa will retain his aggressive play on HC…It’s so good to see him play that aggressive esp.in DeMinaur’s match…For me,Rafa’s perfomance in that match was the best i’ve seen so far…And he also made a LOT of winners from his aggressive play…I’m so happy to see this!…Let’s hope that Rafa will stay healthy for NA swing!… Vamos Rafa!!

    • MA,

      I hope that rc gets some perspective. After all, Rafa fans had to endure garbage like grassgoat coming on here to gloat over Rafa losing. That is not something that anyone likes to see after their player has lost. Yet we are still here. So I think rc should realize that there was a good deal of disappointment because Rafa fans have waited seven years for him to get a good result at Wimbledon. Everyone knew that Rafa and Novak were playing for the title. Whoever won was going to win the final. The match itself was so close and turned in a few points.

      But I do not blame Novak. I am not his fan and have my own issues with him. It is nice to see him back, but not at the expense of Rafa. The fault lies totally with the tournament organizers.

      I have moved on from this loss. I know that Rafa has certainly moved on. He is wise beyond his years. He did his best in very difficult circumstances. Now I am sure his is fishing on his boat and relaxing and enjoying his time off.

      I am looking forward to seeing him in the NA summer hardcourt season.

      • Most people agree that Nadal/Djoko was going to win the final. Imagine if Anderson won the 3 set where he had multiple set points. Obviously Novak was still the favourite to win, but who knows about Anderson…he started to play much better in that 3 set. Djokovic closed the mystery quickly. Good for him.
        On top of that, he did what everyone was going to do for himself/herself. I agree that only Wimbledon is to blame, although I am not a Djoko fan.

  8. Rafa was the aggressor of the two in SF as well. He had same winners as Djoker even though Djker had more than 10 aces difference. Its not always we have this stat.

    If Rafa had finished DelPo in three or four sets, he would have won against Djoker in closed roof as well.

  9. Rafa seriously needs to improve his serve. I really think that it’s because he couldn’t rely on his serve during crucial moments that’s why he got nervous and couldn’t produce an ace or a good serve down the T (the way he used to in the past) when he had SP in his TBs.

    Djoko could serve 20+ aces, Rafa couldn’t, so he had to work harder to win points. Against Delpo he was also not able to deliver many aces whilst Delpo served 37 aces if I’m not wrong. I really don’t know what went wrong with Rafa and his serve; it’s after he came back from injury break that his serve deteriorated, so it must be something to do with his hip injury, perhaps he’s afraid to reinjure his hips again.

    • I was thinking how much difference can a simple decision (logical court management) or a few points can make. Nadal was very close to win that match. It would have been: Nadal 18 slams, Novak 12. Instead it’s 17 vs 13.
      Probably Wimby organisers didn’t intend to help Djokovic win the title, but those decisions and circumstances all worked in his favour. Just saying.

      • I bet the organizers wanted a Fedal rematch; if not then a Fed/Djoko final. Too bad, because of their incompetence, they ended up with a final that most people except the Djoko fans would want to forget. Perhaps, postponing the final to Monday might be better for the players and for those who wished for a good final.

        I’m happy with the way Rafa played, except that his serve really let him down and he has to put more work into it. Perhaps after such fiasco by Wimbledon, Rafa will come prepared next year, well at least get a better serve, be prepared to play in humid conditions and indoor conditions on grass.

        I doubt the organizers would change much, they seemed too proud to admit their own mistakes. I thought after last year’s unfair court assignment and players complaining, that they would wise up this year, and with Murray’s absence, it should make it easier for them to decide and assign the courts fairly, yet they still failed and Djoko had to complain again this year.

        The failure to let the second SF start earlier on another court, so that it could finish within the same day, really showed that they’re either incompetent, inflexible or simply high handed in hasndling the issues on hand. It’s not the fault of Rafa/Djoko that their match was delayed, yet the organizers just won’t even care that the winner of that match might have to play on three consecutive days and still have the final be played on Sunday. Why Rafa/Djoko were made to bear the consequences of the organizers’ incompetence?

        Djoko made the best of the situation, it’s not his fault that things turned out this way, and he’s not wrong to want to maximize his chances of winning the title here. He still needed to go out there to fight for it, it’s not like things were handed to him on a plate.

        We can just hope that come next year, we won’t need to witness such a fiasco all over again at Wimbledon.

        • Djoker was handed center court when actually Fed-Anderson deserved center court and it turned out to be a better match.

          Djoker should have been given center court earlier.

  10. mira
    I see Rc hasn’t responded to the posts which both I and nny left for her…I think it’s quite plausible she hasn’t seen them as maybe she is angry and has just stopped reading here? Do you think it would be a good idea if you emailed her and let her know?? Because if she is angry she may not come back for a while and so won’t even see them…what do you think?

    • amy…There’s possibility that she still don’t read your post…But,then there’s also a possibility that she already read…and understand everythings what u wrote…Or maybe still don’t have an opportunity to reply to u…And yeah…I think,she’s hurt a little…And she just want to calm herself down atm…Don’t worry amy!…She knows u love her & she loves u too u know…U & Margot has a special place in her heart…Therefore,she’ll be back…She just needs time atm okay?…

      About emailed her…Oh God amy!…I wish it was that easy…She hates email & she hates FB…Even if i wrote something to her on email,there’s no guarantee that she will reply…I just don’t have that privilage anymore amy…I’m totally a stranger now…But,don’t worry K!…I’m positive that She read what u wrote,believe me!…Just be patient waiting for her comeback k?She will after she calm herself down…

  11. Ok mira!! I trust what you say! I am incredibly tired at the moment because I have a new neighbour who keeps me awake at night!! I is really awful and I am one of those people who can’t function without sleep! So I am a bit nervous about posting here as I can’t think of write clearly. Also I get very irritable and had tempered when I am tired so some of my reactions are simply to do with that.
    Talk soon honxxx

    • That’s okay amy!…I hope u will get a rest tonight amy!…If not,just go to new neighbours house & kick their a!@es & run home quickly!!..

      Yeah!Talk later amy!!…Have a gud evening k?

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