Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Anderson vs. Isner

When the Wimbledon draw was revealed two weeks ago, the top-half semifinal was expected to be a rematch of last year’s final between Roger Federer and Marin Cilic. It turned out to be Kevin Anderson vs. John Isner.

Cilic exited early and Federer, in even more shocking fashion, fell to Anderson from two sets up during quarterfinal action on Wednesday. The 6’8” South African’s reward is an incredible opportunity to reach his second Grand Slam title match, but it certainly won’t be easy against Isner. These two former college rivals have squared off on 11 previous occasions, with Isner leading the head-to-head series 8-3. It was once 3-3 before the 6’10” American reeled off five wins in a row, including two during this stretch that required nothing but tiebreakers–7-6(3), 6-7(8), 7-6(7) at the 2012 Shanghai Masters and 6-7(3), 7-6(2), 7-6(2) in the 2013 Atlanta final.

Something along those lines was expected when Isner went up against Milos Raonic in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. And that is how things transpired through two sets, but the world No. 10 eventually took control and prevailed 6-7(5), 7-6(7), 6-4, 6-3. In what is by far his best-ever performance at the All-England Club, Isner preceded that result by beating Yannick Maden, Ruben Bemelmans, Radu Albot, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. The reigning Miami Masters champion has not been broken a single time through five rounds, but he did have to save two match points from 15-40 down at 4-5 in his fifth set against Bemelmans.

“Pure elation right now,” Isner said following his win over Raonic. “Very, very happy to be in this position right now in the semifinals. With how I’m feeling physically and mentally, I’m in a very good spot. I think I can keep doing damage here. This is amazing; it’s by far the best Grand Slam I’ve ever played in my career, and I’ve been playing for 11 years. I’m super happy. To do it here at Wimbledon makes it even a little bit more special.”

Anderson had also never reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals, but he advanced to the second week three times in his previous four appearances and he has not lost in less than five sets at this event since 2014 (to Andy Murray in the fourth round). So the No. 8 seed’s performance comes as no real surprise–at least no real surprise until Wednesday. On the heels of victories over Norbert Gombos, Andreas Seppi, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Gael Monfils, Anderson saved one match point and stunned Federer 2-6, 6-7(5), 7-5, 6-4, 13-11. Paling only in comparison to Isner, the 32-year-old has blasted 124 aces in five matches–at least 20 on every occasion.

“John has got arguably one of the best serves of all time on the tour,” Anderson said of his opponent who has fired 160 aces this fortnight (64 past Bemelmans alone). “Especially in the last few months what’s really impressive is just his first-serve percentage, as well, never mind how accurate and big the serve is.

“In the matches I’ve played him, obviously taking care of your serve is the first priority. It’s a match that’s often won on just a couple of points here and there. I feel confident in baseline exchanges quite a lot with John. At the same time, because he’s such a big player, has so much firepower, you just can’t be too patient. You have to still be aggressive and put him on the back foot.”

That’s not going to happen when Isner serves, as he has put no less than a whopping 69 percent of his first serves in play during every match of this tournament. The pressure will be on Anderson to hold every time he toes the line–something he failed to do four times against Monfils and three times against Federer.

Isner has played the big points better than Anderson over their last five meetings and based on how he is serving these days, more of the same is likely to continue.

Pick: Isner in 4

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38 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Anderson vs. Isner

  1. Anderson has reached a USO Final and now a Wimbledon final for a reason, he competes better than the competition and finds a way to win.

    I expect him to find a way to break the Isner serve and doubt he’ll allow himself to lose this match after achieving the biggest win of his career.

    There will be a lot more balls in play compared to Isner’s previous matches.

    The formlines for Isner are suspect at best also whereas Monfils and Fed were strong even though Fed was not at his previous best.

    Anderson in 4

  2. The more I think about it the more I think the titlist may come from the winner of this match. I didn’t realize that Isner had been serving nearly 70% of 1st serves. I mean, can a player with a serve like his be beaten on grass if he serves like that?

    I really have no idea about the outcome of either of these semifinals. On any other surface you’d have to say the winner of Novak-Nadal is the heavy favourite to win the title. But here I’m not at all sure.

    • I also have to say: despite being a trump supporter, Isner seems like a genuinely nice guy (as does Anderson). The two are not incompatible, after all.

      Still, it will be hard for me to cheer for him, even against Nadal in the final, should it come to that. If he had won 20 slams as Federer has, I’m pretty sure they would have changed the rules by now.

    • Nadal and Djojovic are 2 of the best returners in the game and they wear down their opponent in their service games.

    • “I mean, can a player with a serve like his be beaten on grass if he serves like that?”

      Even at 70% they do only need to have one bad service game in a set or crack under pressure in a TB, and the set’s probably gone. If Rafa or Novak are playing well they’ll likely take enough of the break points they’re given, even when those BP’s are few and far between. At 2014 Wimby Fed served at 69%, yet he still had 15 break point opportunities against him. That was more than enough for Djokovic to get the win. Sure, Isner serves bigger at his 69%, but his less impressive ground/volley game counteracts that once a rally starts.

  3. I genuinely want Isner to win the tournament so all the Trump/Isner hating sissies cry like they did when Mr. Trump won the election and like they did when he visited the UK. I tought tennis fans were more intelligent. It’s so pathetic to not like someone because he voted for someone you don’t like.

    • Iliya
      That’s just bs! If someone votes for something or somebody which causes harm to myself or others i have every right to dislike them and hold them accountable. What about someone who voted for the Nazis? It’s utterly absurd to say that someone’s politics are separable from who they are as a person.

      • If you are so sure that those people who support Trump are wrong/causing harm/Nazis, then as a human being, try to help them by explaining, not complaining..at least i would do that if I didn’t like Mr. Trump 😉

          • I hate politics AND politicians! Like or hate Trump, I see no sense in not liking someone bcos of who they voted for bcos ALL politicians are just as bad as they other, it just that some. as well as the media, are good at pretending that they are better than the other guy! The world was a right old mess before Trump was elected, and no matter who else comes, it will not fair ANY better!!! Dont be delusional ppl!! I mean Hillary and Trump?! That were the choices?! Pfffff! That goes to show, Its all dreaded politics!!

            Now hurry Anderson, plz put me out of my misery already!! I want Rafa on court as soon as possible so the rest of my day can be anxiety free!!

            VAMOS!!

  4. Watching Isner and Anderson on grass, I really dont think they need to quicken the court surfaces. The way they’re serving, how many players could return those serves to beat them? I guess if you’re not a big server like them, then it’s only the big four with their unbelievable returns and good all round games could beat them.

    The big four are not going to be around forever, and the rest of the current crop, they’re better at serving than returning, so I really don’t think it’s necessary to quicken the courts. I guess it’s only the trio of Rafa, Djoko and Murray with their unbelievable return and baseline counterpunching games that make people feel that the court surfaces are slow and they benefit from it. Once the trio are gone, I think there’re no more such great counterpunchers around or to come and people won’t be complaining (that the courts are slow) when the game of the likes of Isner, Anderson, the big servers could flourish.

    • Agree lucky. Grass must stay grass. I would also add, there is no need to slow down hard courts. That’s mean, just using players’ resources to gain more income. All we want is good clay, hard and grass and a new configuration of the yearly tournaments, with a bit longer grass season and eliminating the unecessary hard tourns just for the sake of income. As soon as tennis starts to be mainly a business as football, it will be gone quickly. Sad reality.

  5. I want to say “Thank You” to Ricky for allowing the discussion of politics to a certain degree. Not every sports oriented site would.
    I think we should try to stay polite to each other, though. But as far a I can tell Amy has done just that. She just called Trump a moron and worse. As long as Mr. Trump doesn’t join our community, I have no problem with that. And even if Trump should join our community, I still wouldn’t have any problems with calling him names – because he wouldn’t be truly a part of our community ☺

  6. This match has the making of a five setter that’ll take five hours! Hopefully Rafa and Djoko has enough time to play a full match after that.

  7. So one set all, each wins a TB. It’s going to be four TBs followed by a long fifth set; just hope it doesn’t go the way of Isner/Mahut, at best or worst, Anderson/Fed please.

    • Very dry indeed. No slices almost at all. Not much variation either. Waiting for spike. That will happen if someone breaks.

      • And Anderson did of! He’s the first to break Isner in the whole tournament! Now, please serve out the set, Kevin!

  8. This is shaping up to long, long session 😨 Paint dries quicker.
    I don’t understand why they don’t start the semis earlier. Something like this isn’t so unusual after all. It’s just not fair to those who play the second match!

  9. Anderson breaks! There is hope! Something actually happened besides another tiebreak. Now he needs to serve this out.

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