Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

Ten years later, there will be no final rematch of the 2008 Wimbledon epic between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. But the All-England Club faithful will be treated to a different historic rivalry two days earlier–Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic in the semis.

The two all-time greats are set to face each other for a hard-to-believe 52nd time in their careers on Friday, with Djokovic holding a lead so slim (26-25) that it will be all tied if he loses this one. Nadal had dropped seven in a row and 11 of their last 12 meetings before taking their two most recent encounters, also in semifinal showdowns (6-2, 6-4 last spring in Madrid and 7-6(4), 6-3 a couple of months ago in Rome). They have not collided on grass since the 2011 Wimbledon title match, which Djokovic won 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3.

Surprisingly, Nadal had not been back to even the quarterfinals of this tournament since that 2011 result. But it has all turned around for the world No. 1 this fortnight, with straight-set romps over Dudi Sela, Mikhail Kukushkin, Alex De Minaur, and Jiri Vesely prior to an epic 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals. Nadal is now an awesome 35-2 this season and 31-1 in his last 32 matches since retiring against Marin Cilic in the Australian Open quarters.

“Anything could have happened (against Del Potro), so this is a big achievement for me to get to the semifinals at Wimbledon,” the Spaniard said following Wednesday’s thriller. “In the last set there was a little of everything: great points, great rallies, he was hitting crazy with his forehands. I tried to resist and maintain focus.

“Now is the moment to enjoy and then start to recover, as it was a tough physical battle. [Djokovic] is one of the toughest opponents. I am just excited to be in the semis.”

While Nadal has finally found greener pastures at Wimbledon following years of SW19 frustration, Djokovic’s all-around game appears to be back in business for the first time in a year. Physical problems derailed the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018 for him, but the Djokovic of old has returned. The 21st-ranked Serb picked up some momentum on clay and has only improved on grass, with a runner-up performance at Queen’s Club and wins this fortnight over Tennys Sandgren, Horacio Zeballos, Kyle Edmund, Karen Khachanov, and Kei Nishikori. Djokovic is 17-3 in his last 20 matches since being saddled with a 6-6 mark through his first 12 of the year.

“I feel (that) if I have to compare the game that I’ve played, the level of tennis that I’ve had those years and today, I think it’s pretty close,” Djokovic assessed after beating Nishikori 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 on Wednesday. “I like the level of tennis that I’m playing right now; I really do. I think with the performances I’ve had, I deserve to be in the semifinals. I don’t want to stop here. I hope I can get a chance to fight for a trophy.”

While this Djokovic is something different than what was on display from January through April, his sample size of success remains small. The 12-time major champion owns just a single top-10 win since Rome last spring, and that has come at the expense of a slumping Grigor Dimitrov in the Queen’s Club second round. Toppling Nadal in the Wimbledon semifinals is a whole different beast of a task.

Nadal has quite simply been the best player this entire year and the best player throughout this tournament. Although it obviously isn’t clay, conditions are suiting him well this fortnight. If more of the same continues and he produces a similar level to what Del Potro saw on the other side of the net, the 32-year-old should advance to his sixth Wimbledon final.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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52 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. Oh well! Rafa played very well but he seems to have lost his killer instinct to play the right shot at the right time. He should have won the third set tiebreak and done it in 4!

  2. OMG!! What a comeback by Djoko. As for Rafa, he has nothing whatsoever to be ashamed of.

    Only thing is when Rafa seemed on course for a wimby in a long time, a red hot Djoko happens

  3. We all knew once he could not break Novak then he had no chance, and his serves?! Nah, he tried but lets face it, his serves let him down!! Well at least it was a very close match and he tried his best! That Delpo match also took a toll.

    Vamos Rafa!!

  4. But,still he have a great tournament…But,we don’t know whether he will have the opportunity like this year…I mean,it’s not every year he came here & not suffered a knee pain…Oh well…All the best for the NA HC Rafa….

    • Rafa has plenty left for the uso where he’s b eaten Nole twice! But they have to work on his serve! If the match had been played outdoors he would have won!
      I am proud of him and feel that the long match with Delpo caught up with him in the end.

  5. So, it’s not to be for Rafa! I see winning that third set TB is crucial, and Rafa faltered and lost it.

    Congrats to Djoko, he’s clutch enough to save all those BPs whilst Rafa just didn’t do enough to convert them. Rafa is just not good enough when it mattered, ie he just couldn’t serve well enough to bail himself out of trouble.

    It’s quite unbelievable that he’s able to reach a slam final when still not yet at his best level. Rafa really need to work on his serve, it’s erratic, and he had to put in so much efforts to hold serve, it’s almost a miracle that he could survive till the SF here.

    • It’s too bad that there has to be a troll on this site. When Fed had that tough loss, nobody gloated or hated. I just feel sorry for someone whose life is so empty that this is all they can do. That is a sorry soul.

      As for Rafa, he knows he had his chances. If you don’t convert the break chances, then you lose.

      • Rafa should be satisfied that he has at least reached the SF here despite his relatively poor serve.

        No one can predict or control how a match goes – the Isner/Anderson match for example. Had Anderson took that third set after he broke serve, he might win in four sets and Rafa/Djoko might be able to start playing earlier with the roof opened, at least for some time till darkness set in.

        Rafa plays better in outdoor conditions and this year’s conditions suits him, too bad, where it matters, he has to play indoors against a player who’s great playing indoors.

        It’s not meant to be for him, and his serve really let him down; I hope he could improve on that. He had lost two crucial TBs where he had SP and was serving for the set, a good serve would’ve won him the set, and he would be saving more energy for the SF. He winning the third set TB would’ve made the difference in the SF results I feel. He’s just not clutch enough where it mattered, a problem he should address, if not he’ll make life very difficult for himself.

        • I think Rafa’s serve was made to look worse than it actually was, thanks to Djoko. He kept sending the balls back each time. Even Roger has looked clueless when serving against Nole at Wimby.

          This win may just give Djoko the fillip that the AO 2017 gave the Fed and he may go on a tear hereafter.

  6. Sorry to Rafa fans. But I do remember some saying that if Novak Djokovic should meet Rafa in the semis he would be embarrassed by Nadal. Never take anything for granted. That’s why I take it one match at a time.

    This one will be tough for Rafa. He wanted this trophy but Novak was amazing and won’t let him. I give all due credit to rafa for staying in it and fighting hard. It was a brilliant effort on his part. His draw was good and many expected him to win this when Fed was out.

    To the good Rafa fans here you deserve respect. I know this is hard, painful and disappointing but hang in there everything will be alright ok.

    • Nobody said that Novak would be embarrassed if he met Rafa. That is total bs! The point is that when Fed had his shocking loss to Anderson, but one person was hateful or gloated.

      So shut up with the lies and stop spewing out crap! Rafa fans were very respectful of Fed. Infortunately, there are people who come here just to hate. Because they are miserable in their pathetic lives and have nothing better to do. That is a waste of life.

    • Thanks Stanley!…Hey,this is 1st time u talking like a civilized people,…Thank u for not berating us Rafans Stanley!…Tho,i suspect not for long!Hahaha

  7. Agreed nny! And if you remember I had an argument with him when he said Nole had cheated to win half his slams! It’s all bile and hate with him!

  8. Amazing amazing…Nole is back! What a match, it could have gone either way but in the end it means a lot more for Djoko! He deserves it!

  9. Congrats to all Nole fans here! He was clutch when it counted so kudos to him!He served way more aces today and yesterday than usual!

  10. I think this is a slam that got away from Nadal. He was the best player in the tournament on this evidence and the Delpo match but somehow contrived to lose. Kinda like Fed-Delpo 2009. I did predict pre-tournament that Djok would beat Nadal in 5 in the semis, but I actually underestimated overall Nadal’s level because of his usual dominance on clay. May be his improved backhand came at the expense of his serve. Had I called before the semi before the semis, I would have in fact gone Nadal in 4.

    Think we may have a competitive final now that Nadal is not in it. He would have cleaned up Anderson easy. Not entirely convinced Djok is all steel yet. Kinda like the Queen’s final against Cilic, he may get down on himself if Anderson manages to hang in there. Wouldn’t mind a Kando win for more than one reason.

    • The match was heavily influenced by the conditions..If they had played it outdoors Rafa would almost certainly have won.

        • French is altogether a new thing . Even peak Djoker can never beat Rafa there. Reason being serve is not as big a factor. Plus I still feel with high bounce Rafa’s BH is even more penetrating , leave aside his FH.

          • None of the above, just expressing my viewpoint.
            I am allowed to do that right?
            If you disagree, please let’s disagrees cordially ok.

      • Agreed. But so it goes…Well, Rafa will be very proud of the tournament he played, as well he should be! Rafa was lucky with his first week draw. His second week, not so much.

        But I’m now a convert to the idea of tb’s in the 5th set at slams! I’ve been through a few extended 5th’s too many in the past few days! Maybe at 9 all? That was Daren Cahill’s suggestion and he had some arguments as to why there.

      • Rafa would still beat him on clay! I am proud of how he fought out there. Playing it indoors was the decisive factor both imo and many others ie brad Gilbert!

      • I don’t think indoor conditions really favor one or the other in this matchup. It favors someone like Fed or Cilic who are more inclined to go for first strike tennis. This matchup is very very tactical and they are usually content probing and trying to exploit an opportunity that comes up. It eventually settles into rallies. Nadal’s movement on grass is not as good as on hardcourts which is why I think it went 5. Unless Djokovic is redlining his backhand cross and dtl on hard courts, he finds it hard to shake off Nadal, but here he was able to get away with it without really being red hot.

    • Novak has to win after this delicious victory.
      He can’t beat Nadal and then lose to kando, that would be disappointing.
      I like K. Anderson but he disappointed me in N.Y last year so no no for him 🤣.

  11. It was a tough one for Rafa. I think playing DelPo in QF is a curse. Fed played him in USO went out. Rafa had such a physical match with him. DelPo spoiled Nole’s 2013 Wimbledon.

    Rafa starting slowly in first set and missing the tie-break was bad. But I am happy for Nole. I always though USO was best suited for Djoker but I feel somehow grass comes natural to him.

      • grassgoat has gone off his meds and can’t get it under control. He still has not recovered from his idol losing, so nothing better to do than come on here and spread around some sexist and misogynist garbage.

        A loser without a life who is SO bitter about Fed’s loss. Too bad, so sad.

    • grassgoat,

      Your name says it all. Still bitter much because your guy got knocked out in the quarterfinal after being up two sets and having match point?

      Too bad, so sad! You have no life. Just another classless Fed fan who hates Rafa. Maybe the meds can’t even help someone as far gone as you.

  12. ” I have not much more inside me. I give it my best ” Nadal in his presser. This is what makes him the greatest competitor the game of sport has ever seen.

    You pick top 10 matches in Open Era and Rafa would feature in most of these. I rather like Djoker Rafa rivalry very much. They just take it to new level.

    Go and rest Rafa , thanks for Roland Garros and Wimby memories.

  13. It was a very difficult match to watch if you are a Rafan…during the match I kept thinking it was just the matter of time when Rafa would lose his serve to give Novak the match…without serve Rafa simply cannot beat Nole…

    Congrats to Novak, great match for him!

    Vamos Rafa!

  14. Nadal’s backhand CC is so lethal now that it is basically a second forehand. And the dropshot is a new point-ending shot plus he has a more aggressive style. I think he served well actually, he had one bad game at the end but was under tremendous pressure serving second. Give credit to Djokovic, the best returner in the game. I guess people would agree Federer has a better serve than Nadal, yet Djokovic made it look average in 2015 and merely good, but not dominant, in the 2014 final.
    Nadal is right handed at the end of the day, the fact he can serve 120-125mph (and even up to 130 sometimes) with his other hand is incredible. It’s the price Toni decided to pay for him to have the lefty advantage, and it has paid off. But it means his service games will be more of a struggle.

  15. But some perspective
    1. Rafa reaches a wimby semi defeating Delpo and almost beating Djoko without having played a warm up grass tournery and a draining clay season
    2. Rafa clears himself at the top of the ATP rankings
    3. Nearly beats Djoko in an indoor setting on his worst surface

  16. I’m devastated for Rafa. Genuinely wanted him to beat Novak. Looks like the Serb is back though. Damn that’s a tough one, I was actually playing my first round match of a tournament I’m in during the completion of the match so I couldn’t see. I heard Rafa was a dog out there and it was a great battle. Commiserations to Rafa and all the gracious Rafans on here.

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