Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

Ten years later, there will be no final rematch of the 2008 Wimbledon epic between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. But the All-England Club faithful will be treated to a different historic rivalry two days earlier–Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic in the semis.

The two all-time greats are set to face each other for a hard-to-believe 52nd time in their careers on Friday, with Djokovic holding a lead so slim (26-25) that it will be all tied if he loses this one. Nadal had dropped seven in a row and 11 of their last 12 meetings before taking their two most recent encounters, also in semifinal showdowns (6-2, 6-4 last spring in Madrid and 7-6(4), 6-3 a couple of months ago in Rome). They have not collided on grass since the 2011 Wimbledon title match, which Djokovic won 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3.

Surprisingly, Nadal had not been back to even the quarterfinals of this tournament since that 2011 result. But it has all turned around for the world No. 1 this fortnight, with straight-set romps over Dudi Sela, Mikhail Kukushkin, Alex De Minaur, and Jiri Vesely prior to an epic 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals. Nadal is now an awesome 35-2 this season and 31-1 in his last 32 matches since retiring against Marin Cilic in the Australian Open quarters.

“Anything could have happened (against Del Potro), so this is a big achievement for me to get to the semifinals at Wimbledon,” the Spaniard said following Wednesday’s thriller. “In the last set there was a little of everything: great points, great rallies, he was hitting crazy with his forehands. I tried to resist and maintain focus.

“Now is the moment to enjoy and then start to recover, as it was a tough physical battle. [Djokovic] is one of the toughest opponents. I am just excited to be in the semis.”

While Nadal has finally found greener pastures at Wimbledon following years of SW19 frustration, Djokovic’s all-around game appears to be back in business for the first time in a year. Physical problems derailed the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018 for him, but the Djokovic of old has returned. The 21st-ranked Serb picked up some momentum on clay and has only improved on grass, with a runner-up performance at Queen’s Club and wins this fortnight over Tennys Sandgren, Horacio Zeballos, Kyle Edmund, Karen Khachanov, and Kei Nishikori. Djokovic is 17-3 in his last 20 matches since being saddled with a 6-6 mark through his first 12 of the year.

“I feel (that) if I have to compare the game that I’ve played, the level of tennis that I’ve had those years and today, I think it’s pretty close,” Djokovic assessed after beating Nishikori 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 on Wednesday. “I like the level of tennis that I’m playing right now; I really do. I think with the performances I’ve had, I deserve to be in the semifinals. I don’t want to stop here. I hope I can get a chance to fight for a trophy.”

While this Djokovic is something different than what was on display from January through April, his sample size of success remains small. The 12-time major champion owns just a single top-10 win since Rome last spring, and that has come at the expense of a slumping Grigor Dimitrov in the Queen’s Club second round. Toppling Nadal in the Wimbledon semifinals is a whole different beast of a task.

Nadal has quite simply been the best player this entire year and the best player throughout this tournament. Although it obviously isn’t clay, conditions are suiting him well this fortnight. If more of the same continues and he produces a similar level to what Del Potro saw on the other side of the net, the 32-year-old should advance to his sixth Wimbledon final.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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51 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. Djoko won 195 points and Rafa 191 so there’s only 4 points difference but Djoko served 23 aces vs Rafa’s 9. Djoko having a better serve help him tremendously whilst Rafa has to work harder to win points .

    I’ve to feel sorry for Rafa, that it’s not often that the conditions at Wimbledon favours him like this year, and yet he has to bump into Delpo and then Djoko, and has his SF match played in not as favourable conditions for him.

    Nobody knows whether he will have any more favourable conditions coming his way at Wimbledon, I hope he doesn’t feel too disappointed that he couldn’t make the most of his chances this year.

    I have to say Djoko has the game that suits the grass surface more than Rafa’s – great serve, great returns, flatter shots, great from both wings and great movement. Djoko’s style suits most playing surfaces – grass, indoor and outdoor HCs, even on slower surface like clay.

  2. djoker turned wafa into a mental midget again. not to mention his superior technical tennis skills. wafa should only play in the dirt from now on.

    • I am so fed up with this trailer trash coming on here to vent because his idol lost after being up two sets to a player who had never beaten him.

      Get some therapy! It’s not the end of theories because your guy didn’t win again.

      What a wimp! So afraid of Rafa catching the so-called GOAT!

      I feel sorry for you. No life. Just sad.

    • need to disagree with myself here. this was actually a clay court match as we know that wafa doesn’t like lush grass. wafa got owned on his favorite turf! what a player this djoker is.

  3. This loss is stinging. So near, yet so far. Rafa would have won Wimby had he somehow got thru today I feel. Wrong side of conditions. Even USO suites Rafa better than Wimby indoors

    Gutted !

  4. I still dont think Djoker is back to his best. Confident Doker is more aggressive, finishes points at the net more. His serve is almost back. BH DTL is not there.

    But no doubt he will be back to the best.

    • a true statement. djoker needs a better form, his bdtl is still not clicking, he still misses returns, otherwise he would’ve sent wafa home after 3-4 sets. while wafa threw a kitchen sink at djoker and played aggressively out of his comfort zone, it still wasn’t enough to win the match. there is not much wafa can do now, unless he talks to someone named Fuentes. hopefully wafa is smart enough not to take these steps.

  5. I really feel that nobody likes playing against Rafa; he’s just so competitive, so intense that he pushes his opponents to produce their best tennis if they want to beat him. It’s exhahsting for him and his opponents.

    I’m sure Djoko felt relieved holding his serve at 8-8 or 9-8 in the final set when he faced several BPs; he knew how tough it was to beat Rafa, even on Rafa’s least favourite surface. I think Delpo could attest to that too.

    Imagine Rafa having a better serve, he would be truly one of the hardest if not the hardest player to beat. Actually Rafa has the varieties in his game to win on grass, he came so close of beating Djoko, it’s more his own undoing at the TB that he lost, which cost him the match I feel. If he really could improve his serve and regains his ability to be clutch at crucial moments, he may have his chances come next year Wimbledon, with healthy body/healthy knees, enough rest and good preparation on grass.

    With a good enough serve to help him win cheap points on grass, perhaps he won’t need conditions to be favorable to him to play well on grass. His ROS has actually improved when he tries to vary the way he returns serves though he tends to overhit his returns at times. He’s just not clutch when having BPs and squanders so many of them.

    I hope he continues to work on his weaknesses, and gets ready to defend his USO title.

    • He having to deal with Delpo’s 30+ aces and Djoko’s 20+ aces and beating Delpo and coming so close to beating Djoko, gives me hope that he actually can deal with big servers on grass. He has better movement than most big servers on grass, he has a varied serve and ROS, a more varied game now and his usual big FH and now improved flat BH, all these are weapons for him to win on grass. He needs a better serve which he can deliver well all the time even in clutch moments. I think if he can have that, he’ll not falter during crucial moments or when facing big servers.

  6. Yeah, truly great tournament for Rafa reaching the semis when many thought he would skip the whole thing. For Rafa to make it this close with Novak his fierce rival on his least favorable surface and in the indoor conditions only means Rafa will be the man to beat at USO and AO! He has improved his game even further mixing it up with great drop shots and volleys! All Rafa needs to fo for uso is to work on his serve to make it more of a weapon!

    I am so proud of Rafa!

    Enjoy summer time, Rafa and come back strong!

    Vamos Champ!

    • I think it’s best to take the positives even out if this tough loss. Rafa might not have had anything left had he won today. But with so much going against him, he really battled and it was thisclose.

      I feel it’s more than just improving the serve. He needs to capitalize when he gets break points late in a match. He also could not convert three set points in the third set. So he had his chances to win, which makes this harder to take.

      But from what Rafa said in his presser, he may have just reached his limit. With no day of rest, it might have been too much for him in the final. But I still would have liked to see him get the chance to play for another Wimbledon title.

      There is still a lot to like about her e he’s playing now. The USO should be exciting.

      • Rafa did say in his presser that he “didn’t have much left in him”. Completing the channel slam at his age (or any age for that matter) is a HUGE achievement. I said before the tournament that I’d be very happy if Rafa made the quarterfinal and I am. Of course I’d be a whole lot happier if he’d won it! But it’s been a great and interesting Wimbly.

        I think Djokovic will win the final – I said at the quarters that I thought whoever fought through the bottom half would win the championship. Still think it’s true. Djokovic had it pretty easy up to his last match while Kevin played a very long match vs Roger and an even longer one vs Isner.

  7. I remember Rafa had a break point in final set and there was a wrong rally. He moved forward on Djokovic’s FH but Djoker pulled a winner. He was unlucky like that against Muller.

    But overall Rafa’s net play is very good. His drop shot is a weapon now . Hope he gets to work on his serve in the off-season , 10% improvement there would be a great help. Although I felt Rafa served great in the fifth set, was broken 4 times in a tight five setter against Djoker, twice against DelPo.

    It turned out to be a brutal draw for Rafa.

    • Nadal’s net play has always been excellent, but the drop shot in his last two matches was a revelation. In general, I really liked the way he played, very different from his style of play in the past, imo.

      Can’t say I agree about the brutal draw. Even if the last two matches were tough, the first four rounds were not terribly challenging. Anderson has had the tougher draw overall.

  8. Obviously a lot of respect to Nadal and Djoko both for playing an amazing amazing match but I don’t agree with people saying Djoko should have agreed to playing with the roof open. At this level, every bit of advantage counts and the game is decided by a point here or there. I am sure Fed/Nadal would have done the same thing and picked conditions that suit them if given a choice. Doing otherwise would be stupid. Nothing to do with being unsportsmanlike. I actually think Djoko doesn’t get the respect he deserves from the fans and is always at a disadvantage playing with Fed and Rafa w.r.t crowd support. The three of them belong in the same league IMO.

    • Djoker is as world class a player as Rafa and Roger. they got to show him some respect. Keeping him off the major courts, having him play Monfils in AO in extreme conditions to protect Fed, high time world recognizes this extraordinary talent. If there is one guy who can go toe to toe with Rafa for 5 hours without breaking down , its Nole not Fed.

      I hope he wins Wimby tomorrow . He deserves this

  9. Nadal came so close to beating but have to agree he was always under pressure with that serve.
    Nadal needs to work on improving aspects of his game in the off season. The problem that has been for past few seasons that he gets injured or hampered by that time of year and so the crucial period of few months is spend in recovery rather than improving his game.
    Federer on the other hand was able to use the off season and extended break provided by that injury he had to work on aspects of his game like backhand and see how he came strong.
    Nadal and his team if for the sake of his longevity and continued competitiveness will need to have a look and work out his schedule so that he isn’t hampered. Also they will need to realize that he has to improve his serve. Age is catching up. Nadal will need free or easy points offered by his serve else it will only become harder

  10. This is the best match between Djokovic and Nadal , I believe. This surpasses their AO 12 final . RG 2013 SF comes very close. Level wise this was right up there.

    Djoker is a threat on grass. He almost beat Cilic in Queens, was comfortable in first few rounds, I thought he enjoyed sailing through the draw under the radar. He had a good draw as well. I dont think Djoker would have won today had he played DelPo in QF. Winning back to back is never easy. Winning against Red Hot DelPo in fifth took a lot out of Rafa.

  11. What a great match. Commiserations to Nadal fans here, but Rafa has nothing to hang his head about. He played a great match, and certainly could have won. In the end I think his serve was the difference. Although he served pretty well today, he couldn’t get many free points.

    All credit to Djokovic, even though he’s not back to his best, imo. He had just enough to win this, but I thought his ROS was over-rated today. He missed a lot of very make-able returns in the last set. And the serve he’s going to face tomorrow is going to be a different beast altogether.

    I also don’t think Novak’s fitness is back to where it was. This match was obviously draining, and he may not have much of an advantage tomorrow, if any. Nadal is fitter and would have had more. At this point, just judging by their recent form, I’d say the final is going to be extremely close. I might even give Anderson the edge.

  12. As stinging as this loss is, I am sure Rafa will take positives out of it. We all should remember that when Rafa came back in 2017, none of us thought he would win 3 slams more. He has 3 undecimas, he finished last year as No 1..he well may finish this year too as No 1..there is lot to be proud ot..after every close bitter defeat..Rafa has gone only up..after 2012 AO loss..he beat Novak three times in a row and prevented him from getting 4 in a row at French..after AO 17 close loss..he got 3 decimas and won the USO and finished No 1 too. He will put things into perspective and I expect him to win either AO or USO …yes he will win one of them and hopefully its AO to complete double career slam..Glories come to Rafa after some disappointments and thats the pattern.

    On some Fed fans here who have sprung out of nowhere and riduculing Rafa..I dont think Fed ever can play 2 back to back intense physical matches this way..And Rafa has more left in him than Fed to be honest going forth. Fed is 37 now and he is feeling the age. He has had a stellar career..show him more respect by being respectful to his greatest rivals..

    • Sanju,

      I know that I have been critical of you and maybe too harsh. We all have our ways of dealing with the stress when Rafa plays, especially at RG. However, I must commend you for an outstanding post. Well said on all counts! For what it’s worth, I agree with you. Rafa will take positives out of this tournament.

      I especially appreciate your final comments about Fed fans showing respect for his greatest rival. I am extremely disturbed by the tone and content of some of the hatespeak that comes out from low lifes and trolls when Rafa loses. I have already pointed out that no one took cheap shots at Fed when he had his shocking loss. It should be the same when Rafa loses. I despise the cowards who hide behind an anonymous username to spew out hatespeak.

      It is disrespectful to Fed. Because we know the Fed respects Rafa and Rafa returns tha respect in full measure.

  13. I couldn’t believe the final score I saw when I woke up. Definitely one of those matches where you wish no one could lose. I can’t wait to watch it.

    Rafans- I’m truly sorry for your loss. This one is particularly tough as he came so very close to playing for the trophy, closer than he has in years. But I’ve been saying all along that Novak would get back to challenging Fedal for the biggest titles, and it looks to me like that has started, whether Novak wins the title or not. But keep your heads up Rafans- your guy is still #1, and the past two weeks showed that he will be formidable in NYC and elsewhere the rest of the season. And if he can defend his title in New York, he will most certainly be the year-end #1 again.

    Nole fans (are there any diehard Nole fans on this site? Ratcliff?)- Congrats to you on your guy taking another big step forward. I certainly did not think he had that level of play and fight back in him yet. And I don’t think I underestimated him- he hadn’t looked NEARLY as good as he did in this match for the 2 years leading up to it. This was by far the best I’ve seen him play since at least 2016 US Open. Arguably since 2016 RG. He just had that mental toughness that we hadn’t seen for so long. It’s good for tennis whether we like him or not!

    • Thank-you Kevin!

      I’ve been out on the river so I didn’t see any matches yet but I keep track of scores and honestly, I thought Rafa was going to win. Didn’t seem like either of them could capitalize on many bps. Nole made the final and I’m hoping he can get the trophy but with a server like Anderson…fingers crossed

      Rafa is playing so well and strong on the heels of winning FO #11, then with no warm up tournament wins makes the SF. Congrats to the Rafa fans for all his efforts and best wishes for hc season.

      And Angie Yay! Angie Kerber has her 1st Wimbledon and 3rd GS!
      Serena keeps getting nicer and more lovable as she ages – she did way better than I expected.

      That smarty Kpuppy, left the rest of us in the dust in the TDC WTA bracket. Well done, picking Serena to the final and Kerber SF.

      In the Rqcquet Bracket Tourneytopia WTA bracket EG Robertson (is that Eugene?) got the #1 spot followed by, not too closely by a newcomer to the pool, Daan Dijkema – not sure who he is or if he goes by a username on TX or TG. But thanks for playing, EG Robertson, Daan and to everyone and best of luck next time. Gosh that was a low scoring GS bracket for most of us!!

  14. And all those saying Novak is locked for the title..it is not as straightforward as it looks. This match may have taken a lot out of Novak..Even if rafa had got to the final..there was no guarantee he would win it as he played 2 brutal 5 setters..Anderson played 6 hours but it was not even anywhere close to being as demanding as this match..

  15. For now, I surely want Djoko to win the Wimby title. He rarely gets chances in the final against a non big 4 (or wawrinka). And based on the ROS, I am sure a lot of Anderson’s serves are going to come back and frustrate him(add to the fact that Anderson may not be serving at his full capacity after his exploits)
    And noone except a big 4 has won wimby since 2003.

    • Me too!

      But he’s far from a lock. Getting to the SF and getting a close win over Rafa was tough I think. He could fade in the final but I hope NOT!

    • VMK, regarding the return of serves, it may not be. Fed also had difficulties returning Anderson’s big serves as their match progressed.

      Djoko couldn’t return some of Rafa’s serves and Rafa’s serves, though tricky at times, were not huge serves. A Djoko at his 2015 level had to beat Anderson in five sets in R4, Anderson is now a much improved player whilst Djoko isn’t at his 2015 level.

      The final may be a close match, unless Anderson is half dead after his 6+ hours SF; but, Djoko may not be fresh either, as a five hours match vs Rafa would take a lot out of anyone, be it physically or mentally. Moreover, Djoko has to play for three consecutive days, so if the final goes the distance again, I feel it’ll affect Djoko more than Anderson, as Anderson has his big serve to bail him out of troubles whilst Djoko will have to work harder when using his serve to win points.

  16. I just saw the highlights..Those 3 Bps at 7 all were costly for Rafa not able to take them..but then Novak aced him in 2 of those..Rafa rarely used FH DTL in 5th set..wonder why..maybe was tired..

    • He went CC one too many. I was wondering why he’s hitting CC right back at Djoko, when Djoko could just change direction and hit his FH or BH DTL and time and again Rafa got out smarted by Djoko.

      To be able to outlast or outsmart Djoko from the baseline, Rafa really needs both his CC and DTL shots from both wings. He has his improved CC BH now, should improve that DTL so that he has more options changing directions to keep his opponents guessing.

      He has some good slices but I feel he still could improve on them especially when slicing down the middle of the court, could slice them lower to make it difficult for his opponents to return them.

  17. Since the beginning of 2017, Rafa has lost only five set matches at the slams

    Fed AO17
    Muller Wimby17
    Cilic AO18
    Djoko Wimby18

    Hope he wins USO again though 🙂

  18. Congratulations to Novak fans. He played very well, although didn’t return so well *some easy serves.
    I’m sorry for Nadal. But keep in mind that a few months ago you’d happily take another RG title and a Wimbledon SF. Very well done. Much respect warrior.

  19. The 5th set was a courageous effort by Rafa. He came out of the blocks fighting after the disappointment of losing the 2nd set TB last night. I’m in the camp that firmly believes the outcome would have been different had they not been playing with the roof closed. But that is with 20/20 hindsight and there’s no point crying over spilt milk. Djokovic is nearly back to his former level which is good for tennis although possibly not such good news for up and coming players fighting their way to through the ranks.

    • Djoko is nearly back but it seems his fitness is not there yet. I do feel a big server plus big hitter like Delpo or a Stan when he’s at his best, could give him troubles. On grass players like Delpo and Anderson could give anyone problem.

      I feel Rafa didn’t get enough depth on his shots, perhaps because he’s playing from behind the baseline, and it’s those who could hit with depth (Delpo for example) that would pose more problems for their opponents, including Djoko.

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