U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Rublev

Andrey Rublev is 0-8 lifetime in Grand Slam quarterfinals. It’s the all-time record for most losses without ever reaching a men’s singles slam semifinal.

It’s history from which Rublev desperately wants to claw his way out, and standing in his way of doing so at the U.S. Open on Wednesday is none other than Daniil Medvedev. The two Russians go way back to their junior days and have remained the best of friends (Rublev is even the godfather of Medvedev’s child).

On the court, the edge has generally gone to Medvedev–who leads the head-to-head series 6-2 (5-2 on the main tour). The current world No. 3 won each of their first two Grand Slam encounters and…you guessed it…both of those came in quarterfinals. Medvedev prevailed 7-6(6), 6-3, 7-6(5) at the 2020 U.S. Open and 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 at the 2021 Australian Open. Rublev had managed to win twice in a row at his compatriot’s expense heading into this season, but he lost their most recent meeting 6-2, 6-2 in the Dubai title match.

Based on his form going into New York, even Rublev once again comes up short of the semifinals this has to be considered a successful tournament. The world No. 8 lost right away in both Toronto and Cincinnati but has turned things around with victories over Arthur Cazaux, Gael Monfils, Arthur Rinderknech, and Jack Draper.

Medvedev also underwhelmed at the two hard-court Masters 1000 events, falling in the Toronto quarterfinals (to Alex de Minaur) and the Cincinnati third round (to Alexander Zverev). As usual, though, the 27-year-old has found success at Flushing Meadows. The champion in 2021 and runner-up in 2019, Medvedev is back in the last eight following defeats of Attila Balazs, Christopher O’Connell, Sebastian Baez, and De Minaur.

Even though Medvedev is a huge favorite on Wednesday, Rublev–for obvious reasons–is going to feel much more pressure. Given the circumstances and also Medvedev’s superior form, you have to think that Rublev’s quarterfinal struggles will continue.

Pick: Medvedev in 4