The first-ever Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer showdown at the U.S. Open is becoming closer and closer with each passing round. They are two wins apiece away as the action heads into Monday, when quarterfinal spots will be at stake.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
Nadal and Dolgopolov will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they clash in round four of the U.S. Open on Monday. The head-to-head series stands at 6-2 in favor of Nadal, who has won four of their five previous hard-court encounters. Dolgopolov’s victories came in a duo of three-setters; he prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5) at the 2014 Indian Wells Masters and 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-4 one season later on the grass of Queen’s Club. They most recently faced each other earlier this year in Brisbane, where Nadal restored order to the matchup by getting the job done 6-3, 6-3 for his first defeat of Dolgopolov since the 2014 Rio de Janeiro title match.
Not many could have predicted that this borderline rivalry would be renewed in New York when the draw was revealed last Friday and put them three rounds away from one another. After all, a struggling Dolgopolov had been just 16-17 in 2017 with five retirements and recent match-fixing accusations in Winston-Salem–where he lost right away to Thiago Monteiro 6-3, 6-3. Out of seemingly nowhere, however, the world No. 64 has advanced at the U.S. Open by beating Jan-Lennard Struff (in five sets), Tomas Berdych (four), and Viktor Troicki (three). If Dolgopolov’s tournament got off to a relatively slow start, Nadal has been a master of starting each match slow only to right the ship. The world No. 1 defeated Dusan Lajovic 7-6(6), 6-2, 6-2, came back from a set and a break down to beat Taro Daniel 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, and fought past Leonardo Mayer 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-1, 6-4 on Saturday evening. Nadal is now looking to advance farther than the fourth round in Flushing Meadows for the first time since he last captured the title there in 2013. Although the Spaniard is not looking invincible and Dolgopolov has a decent history against him, the underdog will have to do much more than beat Struff, Troicki, and an injured Berdych in order to inspire real confidence. Nadal has done well to find solutions to early problems so far this fortnight and it should not take him long to solve a familiar foe in Dolgopolov.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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(3) Roger Federer vs. (33) Philipp Kohlschreiber
It is becoming a trend at this U.S. Open: Federer facing an opponent against whom he owns double-digit wins compared to zero losses. The Swiss had been 16-0 against Mikhail Youzhny, 12-0 against Feliciano Lopez, and now he is 11-0 at the expense of Kohlschreiber–his Monday opponent. Counting the trio of victories Federer has already scored at this U.S. Open, he is a combined 43-0 against his first four adversaries. Despite those gaudy numbers, though, it has not come easy. The 36-year-old needed five sets to scrape past both Frances Tiafoe and Mikhail Youzhny before raising his level considerably in a 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 rout of Lopez on Saturday night.
Kohlschreiber earned another shot at Federer by defeating Tim Smyczek, Santiago Giraldo, and John Millman, The 37th-ranked German has not yet dropped a set nor even been extended to a single tiebreaker. He is a perfect 11-0 in non-retirement matches since Wimbledon and 15-0 in his last 15 sets dating back to the Kitzbuhel quarterfinals. During this stretch, however, Kohlschreiber has not faced anyone in the current top 25. The competition level now ratchets up exponentially in the form of Federer, who eased concerns surrounding his potentially bad back with his much-improved performance against Lopez.
Pick: Federer in 3 losing 12 games or fewer
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how do neutral observers see Rafa-rubulev and Rafa-Fed (if it happens)
I don’t see why Rafa couldn’t beat Fed at night. Rafa, unlike Feli or Kohl, doesn’t play into Fed’s hands. Rafa’s counter puncher style is made to counter Fed’s aggressive play. Rafa is way quicker than any of Fed’s oppontents so far, has better game plan to counter Fed’s game.
Unlike at the AO, Rafa wasn’t stretched physically here, and so I feel he still can bring his best to his SF match.
R.I.T.B 3.0,
You are a true fan and i love your confidence but don’t wish that Rafito meets Fed cos it won’t pretty.
R. Federer in 3 sets or maybe 4 if he meets R. Nadal, R. Federer will win his 3rd Slam this year.
If R. Nadal defeats Federer(that won’t happen) all is good cos Rafito deserves it, he has been phenomenal this year especially on clay and very competitive on all surfaces.
His next match Andrey Rublev won’t be easy even if Rafito wins in 3 sets it would be tight, i have not made my final decision on that match, Rafa & Rafans need to be careful cos there is a storm coming and no one can weather it(maybe in the QF but definitely in SF).
Having said all that am wishing U & others the best.
Take care!
Thanks @Stanley.
I am hoping Fed brings his A game should Fedal happen on Friday! I want Fed beaten fair and square, it’s time to remind him who’s the boss in this match-up……….
Sweetie(R.I.T.B 3.0) i love your confidence i really do, i like U but Fed is the boss this year no matter what happens.
He will bring his A game OK and U won’t like it cos it won’t pretty, maybe U & I should fight first, because the result might determine who wins FEDAL’s match.
Are you in or out?
By the way, do you play tennis or other sport?
Or do U just love watching it?
Or is it both?
@Stanley, please do not call me Sweetie, grosses me out. My online username will do just fine, thanks.
Yes, I do participate in sporting activities, my favourite being running, distance running.
I am sorry OK!
I didn’t mean to offend you, am really sorry and glad you told me.
You love running that’s nice, i hope you don’t run away when Federer defeats Rafa.
Take care!
You can live in a fool’s paradise because Federer knows he is not the boss. He says Rafa forced him to up his game. No more pansying about like a bad ballet dancer.
Pansying about like a bad ballet dancer? Damn. But yeah Roger has had to adapt his game due to Rafa I’m glad that they have given us such a great entertainment and rivalry. But Roger is the favorite if they meet since he’s won four straight I don’t know he wouldn’t be considered so especially after his drubbings of Lopez and Kohlschreiber that show he is fit enough to play at a high level again.
I don’t know how*
@ RITB
You tell him!!!!
Can’t quite decide if Stanley rubs people up the wrong way deliberately or if he simply can’t help treading on someone’s toes every time he opens his mouth. On balance suspect it is the former.
of course it is the former lol.
Ed251137,
Why would you say that?
Calling someone Sweetie is not a bad thing, there are some who don’t like it and she pointed it out and i respect that.
When i say someone is a sweetie(only women) i simply mean they are a nice person and she is a nice person who is passionate about tennis and is a huge fan of R. Nadal.
I like and admire her confidence/support 4 Nadal and she knows it.
Plzzzzzzzzzzzzzz don’t get twisted OK and i was talking to her not U please respect that.
To Nadline 10,
Please be careful with your words, if someone believes that R. Federer is the boss this year against R. Nadal or the best player this year, they are not living in a fool’s paradise.
3 wins in a roll in two finals is impressive, it is difficult to defeat a good player twice but to do it thrice in a year against one of the best is AMAZING!
I don’t know why i keep saying this but i say it because some of you misunderstand me, i like Rafa and i know without a doubt that i might like/love more some of U and i am not joking.
I believe that if R. Federer meets R. Nadal, Federer will win in 3 sets or maybe 4.
What is wrong with that statement?
If you disagree, please disagree, don’t say that i am rubbing you the wrong way.
We are all fans and you have the right just as i do to express your support/love 4 the player you love like.
If my support for R. Federer rubs you or others the wrong way, i do not apologize, i repeat i will not apologize.
I have predicted in this site that Roger Federer will lose particular match and it came to fruition, i don’t have any special power but no one will stop this GREAT player from winning his 3rd Slam this year not even R. Nadal(no disrespect there just how i see it).
Am a little busy so….
You shouldn’t need to apologize for the fact that you support, Stanley, as MANY people on here are exactly the same way with Rafa as you are with Federer. You just stand out so much because you’re the only die-hard Federer fan (aside from Benny). I may not agree with some of what you say, Stanley, but you shouldn’t have to apologize for having faith in your favorite player to beat his arch-rival. That’s how it works, right? 🙂 I’m not saying that I necessarily think it will happen, but I assure you that there would be nothing out of the ordinary to pick Federer over Rafa in 3 or 4 if they meet… It also wouldn’t be out of the ordinary, imo, to pick Rafa over Fed in 4, for obviously different reasons than why someone would pick Fed. For the most part, when Fedal are both playing pretty well, the vast majority of each guy’s respective fans are going to pick their guy to win haha! It’s just reality!
it is absolutely fine to pick Fed as the winner. He has won 3 matches this year and him beating Rafa in let’s say 4 sets is a real possibility here as well. I do think Ed was referring to something else, though. Anyway, it doesn’t concern me at all and I will just wait for tomorrow’s matches.
ed,
It is definitely the former! Also the way in which Stanley addresses female posters on this forum is inappropriate.
RITB rightly spoke up after he called her “sweetie”! That is completely uncalled for.
This is a tennis forum, not a dating site!
Fed was pretty impressive last night. He now has confidence in his movement and the looseness and freedom can be felt in his game in his game now. I expect him to play even better going forward. He did take an MTO but seemed totally fine so I am guessing he will be ready.
I won’t say Delpo will be totally flat and can’t do anything etc. Delpo has huge reserves. Remember how he fought against Murray in the Olympics final when everyone thought he’d be totally spent?
Even if Delpo were playing his best with 100% fitness, he’d still be a big underdog.
I like Delpo and I am happy for him. The guy is a warrior and he has suffered so much so it is nice to see him make a good run. However, I get annoyed by his backhand! I just cannot comprehend his inability/reluctance to hit backhands DTL! He hits about 99.99% of his backhands CC ! WHY?! He can even keep like a 75-25 proportion but at least try to open up the court and go DTL!! Ever since his comeback, he has been so reluctant to hit DTL. There have been a few matches where he has hit them and they work REALLY well and allows him to dictate more with his forehand. Hitting CC only and slicing it half the time will NOT cut it against Federer. He’ll run around his backhand to punish all day long.
If Delpo is to have any chance, he better be prepared to change direction on his backhand and serve really well. I am not sure how sick he is but I am not buying into his ‘this is enough for me’. He was just being grateful and will do everything he can to stop Fed.
Here is what Delpo had to say:
“I don’t know how I was able to win that match,” del Potro said to ESPN in his post-match interview. “I was sick the last two days and I tried to play as best that I can. When I saw this crowd cheering for me, I was trying to feel better. I fought like this because of these guys.”
“I was exhausted after the last point of the match. But I’m so glad to go through. I played a fantastic battle against one of the best players on the tour.
“I was thinking to retire in the middle of the second set because I couldn’t breathe, I couldn’t move well. Dominic was dominating the match so easily. But then when we started the third set, I broke his serve very quick, and then I won the set in 20 minutes. Then the story changed a lot. I started to see the crowd. I took all the energy from the fans. That’s what I did in the end, just keep fighting. I didn’t give up on any points from the third until the fifth set. I was ready to win the match in that moment.”
“I’m so happy to go through after playing this great match. I enjoyed it a lot. I think it’s enough for me but maybe I have the chance to play Roger again, which is special for me, and I would like to play my best tennis.”
“I feel tired. We cannot do magic. But hopefully my day off tomorrow I can recover a little bit more. Then I will see if I’m ready to play in good conditions against Roger.”
Let’s not talk about Fedal when we are not even there yet! Both need to win one match. The USO has been cursed in terms of not letting these two meet. They were slated to meet in the 4th rnd in 2013 and even that couldn’t happen!! Out of nowhere Fed lost to Robredo in the 3rd ! Sure, totally different circumstances and both are in a great position to win but you never know.
True
Wise words, VR.
Excellent point, VR!
They were expected to meet in QF in USO 2013 and Fed lost to Robredo in 4th round.
Ah yes, you are right, Sanju. The point still holds though 😉
Fed and Nadal were scheduled to meet in 2013 USO QF. Fed lost in 4th round.
No Fedal talks agree. Though I feel Rafa is more likely to have an upset than Roger. Not bcoz Rafa is not good but he is more susceptible to upsets by first timers eg Pouille last year in USO, Shapovalov this year etc.
I hope Rafa really comes out strong.
Eh Rafa will kill Rublev anyways lol. Straight sets and anything else will surprise me.
you have a point, sanju. However, Qtr finals is just about the stage at which I have enough confidence in Rafa to hold his fort against inspired opponents. He played really well yesterday and I think he will look to to continue.
Looks like tomorrow is going to be indoor conditions as rain is expected. If Rafa can win tomorrow, he will be playing in outdoor conditions as rain is not expected later in the week.
The following post is addressed to all those who have been following my take on Fedal matches this year and, of course, to all those interested in Fedal matches (pretty much everyone covered I guess lol):
So, I have been trying to break down and analyze the Fedal matches this year. Fed fans have been emphasising on their man’s improved backhand as the main reason while a lot of the Rafans have been emphasising Rafa’s inability to show the same mental fortitude he’s always had against Fed.
While both of these factors have played a part, I have been stressing the most on fed’s ROS being the biggest reason for this turn around. I have seen extended highlights of Fedal matches this year multiple times and to me it really stood out how Fed is almost always hitting topspin backhand returns and almost quitting his backhand slice returns. Fed hitting backhand slice returns in the period prior to 2014 was quite common and Rafa had developed deadly patterns (esp on the ad court) to get sliced returns and dictate with his forehand.
Now, Fed started to change his returning approach 2014 onward. I finally found some cool stats to support and quantify these claims:
In 2014 AO SF with Rafa, Fed was already hitting 66% of his backhand returns with a topspin backhand. The number was 42% in AO 2013 on average.
Now coming on to the AO 2017 final, fed hit a staggering 95% of his backhand returns with a backhand drive and only 5% slice returns! This is a HUGE change for not only Fed but also for Rafa! Not only were they topspin returns, they were hit flatter and the bigger frame helped in get more on the wide serves.
THIS really shocked Rafa in both AO and IW and his patterns were shaken. His service patterns were disrupted and fed was on to his aggression mode much earlier in the earlier even in return games. While Rafa’s faced these patched from fed in the past, they were for small duration in the sets and Fed was not able to commit to those patterns. I think Ljubicic has really backed him up and they have shown full commitment.
It is mind boggling that Fed hit only THREE sliced backhand returns over FIVE SETS in the AO final!! He was that much comfortable and confident with his game plan. It worked and no wonder was more lethal in IW!
This is testimony to Fed’s greatness but also tells me Rafa’s serving was quite incapable of dealing with Fed’s improved returning .It makes sense to me why Moya has been stressing so much about Rafa’s second serve and I am glad it is a more offensive shot now. There is NO question Rafa has to hit better spots with his first serve. He needs a sharper angle on the wide serve to force fed to hit slice returns. His body serves DID NOT work that well this year against Fed so some pondering is needed.
He can still develop winning patterns but there is work to be done both strategically and in terms of execution.
And, Fed’s improved backhand is NOT a myth. Yes, this is coming from a Rafan and I have no doubts. He has been taking the ball a tad earlier, hitting bigger and flatter when needed and the high ball hasn’t bothered him unless it’s really high. The deep forehand from Rafa, or even the high ones with good action and angle on them, were still effective but the short forehands were punished. Rafa’s kind of lost the luxury of hitting the reset button in rallies by simply hitting high to Fed’s backhand. Not saying Fed was incapable of putting the ball away with his backhand in the past but his ability is greater now. It is more difficult for Rafa to turn defense into offense so he needs a bit more aggression on his counter-punching.
For the stat lovers, Fed hit 8 backhand winners in the 5th set alone of the AO 17 final whereas, he hit 3 winners in the ENTIRE AO 2014 SF against Rafa. It is a new threat but it is a secondary threat if we include ROS.
Yeah there is no doubt Fed’s backhand has greatly improved this season. I feel that it is why he has had the edge over Nadal this season and because of this major improvement he doesn’t really get badly affected by Nadal’s forehand anymore. That’s what I’ve perceived from watching their matches at least. Fed has been the aggressor for much of the time.
Excellent analysis !! Fed’s ROS specially CC backhand on Deuce court and DTL on Ad court just does not give Rafa time to adjust after his serve. He used to do that earlier. And Fed is really hitting his BH CC flat while rallying and breaking Nadal’s forehand.
Before people criticise me for my double standards of talking about Fedal mysely while asking others not to , please note that I just came across some good stats and did not want to miss sharing with you guys lol.
I still maintain that talks of Fedal SF at USO 2017 should wait until tomorrow evening when he are sure they are meeting in the SF! 🙂
I absolutely think we should hold off on a possible Fedal match until it is a reality.
I always take it one match at a time. So I am focusing on Rafa’s match with Rublev.
For sure. And we do seem to have lost sight of the fact that even IF there’s a FEDAL semi the winner is by no means guaranteed to win the final.
who will beat them from the other side? The semi is the real final. Unless ofcourse one gets injured in final like Rafa at AO 14
Only guy who can stop either of them is a god mode Querrey.
Brilliant analysis as always vr!!
I do feel that the confidence fed has now with the new racket means that not only does he have more technical control with the backhand but he is simply far more willing to go for broke. There seems to have been a kind of cognitive feedback as a result which lifts his whole game against Rafa now he’s released from his old fear of the ball getting up high….
Amy, thanksss 🙂
Yeah, the ease the looseness he showed in IW really was telling of how much confidence he now has in his game. He played quite freely.
However, Rafa was able to counter some patterns in Miami and I felt his execution was not great and he made bad errors. His 2nd serve is stronger now and I am sure his 3 coaches will have pin-pointed specific areas to look for. It is all about building good momentum by dispatching Rublev in ruthless fashion! If he can do that, there is no reason why he can’t step up and reverse the losing trend against Fed.
I have been very optimistic about Rafa since the first round. I will repeat what I have been saying all along: I do not think there is good enough reason why Rafa would NOT perform well at the USO this time! I feel he has gone past the initial hurdles and will continue to build momentum now.
Yes I believe he can beat fed vr..but he must not start falling into old habits constantly hitting to Fed’s backhand as if he was playing on clay!fed will just anticipate ahead and rip the ball otherwise..
Having Moya around will help him a lot imo.. he’s an excellent tactician..
But most of all Rafa will need to hit the forehand really well..if that shot isn’t on the money he won’t win…
okay how can Rubulev trouble Rafa? I have not seen him play at all but if he could take out Grigor..he must be having something in him..Even Goffin said something to the effect of how good Rubulev is.
In my honest opinion Rublev won’t trouble Rafa at all. All factors point to an easy win for Rafa.
I found these pieces from Fed’s presser interesting:
‘We both play different. Because of his surgery, I think his backhand has changed. He uses his slice much more. Just alone because of that, the game would be different. I’m playing more aggressive, as well, on the return.
‘I think Rafa’s (forehand) for me is maybe number one. It depends on what surface we’re talking about. But just throughout the career, I think Rafa’s is extremely high, if not my favorite one.
But DelPo’s (forehand) is flat. When it’s flat, clearly margins are smaller. You also have to be in really good position, court position, to be able to do it, when he can do it from further back, as well. He’s got a great forehand down the line, inside-out forehand, which in my opinion are maybe more difficult shots to hit.”
so, talking about his more aggressive approach, Federer also mentions his RETURN! So even he himself believes his return has been the biggest contributor 🙂
Don’t you think that Delpo mainly hitting slice cc backhands – when he has to hit a bh – is due to his left wrist injury? He’s just not been the same since all those surgeries on it. I don’t know why he wouldn’t use his former bh if he could.
Roger’s never been classed as a great returner, like Djokovic and Murray. He’s got flashy shots and great movement, sure, reads the game very, very well, but his real strength is his serve.
Ramara,
I understand why the big man is forced to hit slices now. What I don’t understand is the reluctance to hit his backhand DTL rather CC all the time. He even had this problem prior to surgery but not as much. He just gets really stubborn with the CC backhand pattern.
Regarding fed’ return, yes you are right. But, he is now an offensive returner. You could extract defensive returns from his backhand in the past as he used to hit way more slice returns but now he tries to drive through his returns majority of the times.So, he is a more offensive returner now.
Ramara,
That’s my sense of it with Delpo. Because of the surgeries, he can’t hit the backhand the way he used to. I have to believe that, as you said, if he could hit if the way he used to then he would.
I should not be saying this but Rafa needs some time to adapt to a different pattern of play thrown at him. He is just that kind of a player who needs time whether to get confidence, play into form etc. He lost to Novak 7 times in 2011/12 before adapting and developing patterns of his own. Thats why I am kinda sure he will lose to Fed as he will need time to counter a plan to attack those new patterns.
A part of me would hate to see him lose to Fed in a slam again something we were not used to seeing for 9 years (AO was a shock and it hit real hard as it robbed him of a double career slam ) and hence I wonder if its okay to lose to Rubulev instead . Yes I know I will get lynched for saying this but cant help it :-). I would be overjoyed to see Rafa beat Fed but sorry I just dont see it happening at all given how things have panned out this year. It may happen next year but too early this year I feel going by past Novak experience.
Sanju,
I don’t see it that way. Just because it took Rafa seven straight losses to find the answers to Novak, does not mean that it had to be that way before Rafa finds the answers to Fed. Novak was always a tough match up for Rafa. Then we got Novak 2.0 in 2011. I think Novak presented more problems for Rafa. Rafa has dominated the H2H against Fed. Now Fed has made adjustments and it’s up to Rafa to counter with adjustments of his own.
Keep in mind how close that match was at the AO. That was also a very fast court. Rafa has not done anything at slams for almost three years. Yet he got to the final and was even up a break in that fifth set.
I think Rafa was caught iff guard by Fed’s backhand adjustment. IW and Miami were too soon for him to have an answer. But Rafa has improved his serve quite a bit, especially his second serve now. I am sure that he and Moya will have worked on adjustments to counter Fed’s backhand should they meet in the semifinals.
I have learned never to count out Rafa. If he gets to the semis and meets Fed, I do not see the inevitable outcome that you do.
i hope the outcome will be different to the inevitable one i see and i will be happiest one to see it panning out differently.
I see you point, Sanju. I also said something similar after Miami. Rafa does need some time to sort out issues regarding patterns. We have the Djokovic example and before that it was players like Blake, Nalbandian etc.
Having said that, this one has its unique dynamics. I agree with NNY with the Djokovic problem was more acute. Rafa had actually made some good adjustments in Miami but the execution was not sharp. I felt that throughout the match watching it live.
The huge success on clay and improvements in his 2nd serve give me real hope that he can turn this around here. We will be in a better position to comment after watching his performance tomorrow.
I shall now save further analysis for the actual match haha
vr,
?
tomms schedule out
rafa gets day match..fed night yet again
fed will have played 4 of his 5 matches at night..rafa just 1