The road to Roland Garros continues this fortnight with the third of three clay-court Masters 1000 tournaments. It’s the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, where Novak Djokovic is back after skipping Madrid and Rafael Nadal is suiting up for a second consecutive event, but the draw is otherwise depleted in the star-power department. Both Jannik Sinner (hip) and Carlos Alcaraz (arm) are sidelined.
Main-draw competition gets underway on Wednesday, so it’s time to break down what is always one of the most entertaining tournaments on the annual tennis calendar.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia
Where: Rome, Italy
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 7,877,020 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Daniil Medvedev
Draw analysis: With Sinner and Alcaraz out, Nadal presumably not a serious contender, and Djokovic perhaps more focused on the French Open than Rome, this title appears to be entirely up for grabs. An in-form Casper Ruud is among those who could take advantage. Ruud reached back-to-back finals in Monte-Carlo (runner-up) and Barcelona (champion) before losing to eventual finalist Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Madrid fourth round. The latter result will leave Ruud well rested for Rome. His draw isn’t easy, however, as Djokovic is in the same quarter.
Elsewhere in the top half of the bracket, third-seeded Alexander Zverev is in a section with Grigor Dimitrov, Taylor Fritz, Sebastian Korda, and Lorenzo Musetti. Dimitrov could meet Musetti in the third round and either Fritz or Sebastian Korda in the fourth.
As will be the case at every event he plays from now until the end of his career, Nadal’s presence is dominating headlines. The 37-year-old Spaniard played four matches in Madrid but appears to have gotten through them in decent enough health and has therefore taken his talents to Rome. A 10-time champion at the Foro Italico, Nadal awaits a qualifier in round one and would then go up against Hubert Hurkacz.
Nadal and Hurkacz find themselves in Daniil Medvedev’s quarter of the draw, which offers an ideal opportunity. Medvedev may be the defending champion in Rome, but he is questionable to even play this time around because of a hip issue that forced him to retire from his Madrid quarterfinal contest against Jiri Lehecka. If the Russian either withdraws or loses early, Holger Rune, Tommy Paul, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry are also among those who could take advantage.
Meanwhile, Auger-Aliassime–the Madrid runner-up–and champion Andrey Rublev could meet again in the Rome quarterfinals. They are in a section with Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alex de Minaur, and Jan-Lennard Struff. Tsitsipas vs. Struff is a potential second-rounder; Auger-Aliassime could face Stan Wawrinka in round two, De Minaur after that, and Tsitsipas in the last 16.
First-round matchups to watch are Struff vs. Pedro Cachin, Denis Shapovalov vs. Luciano Darderi, Fabio Fognini vs. Dan Evans, Tomas Machac vs. Matteo Arnaldi, Lorenzo Sonego vs. Dusan Lajovic, and Borna Coric vs. Jack Draper.
Hot: Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Hubert Hurkacz, Grigor Dimitrov, Ugo Humbert, Mariano Navone, Tomas Machac, Jan-Lennard Struff, Fabian Marozsan
Cold: Novak Djokovic, Holger Rune, Frances Tiafoe, Aslan Karatsev, Mackenzie McDonald, Emil Ruusuvuori, Sebastian Ofner, Chris Eubanks
Quarterfinal predictions: Casper Ruud over Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev over Grigor Dimitrov, Andrey Rublev over Jan-Lennard Struff, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry over Tommy Paul
Semifinals: Ruud over Zverev and Rublev over Etcheverry
Final: Ruud over Rublev
who ya got?
I believe Nadal will be formidable on his favorite clay surface in Rome. Given the warrior that he is, expect a performance that significantly boosts his chances of capturing a 15th Roland Garros title.
This.
I think Djoko will be giving this his full attention – theres still a week after this to recover before RG, and he badly needs some form .
I wonder how fit Rublev is , was complaining of being sick last week and having just won a big title might not be giving this his full attention.
Interesting to see Nadal having to rely less on his physicality and more on skill – which he has of course loads of .
I believe Nadal will make it to the quarterfinals and possibly lose there or in the semifinals since he probably won’t play full-out in order to win in Rome and risk injury prior to Roland Garros. I feel this is the time for Ruud to win a 1000. – I’m bummed that Wawrinka was a last minute withdrawal. It would be fun to see Aslan Karatsev get back in the groove.
It is amazing to still see people that believe in Rafa’s comeback. His tennis is certainly over as he has so many physical issues, not to mention he has not been playing for a year. Djoco is not right at the same stage but certainly the one to follow. Age catches up at some point.