U.S. Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Dolgopolov, Federer vs. Kohlschreiber

The first-ever Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer showdown at the U.S. Open is becoming closer and closer with each passing round. They are two wins apiece away as the action heads into Monday, when quarterfinal spots will be at stake.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov

Nadal and Dolgopolov will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they clash in round four of the U.S. Open on Monday. The head-to-head series stands at 6-2 in favor of Nadal, who has won four of their five previous hard-court encounters. Dolgopolov’s victories came in a duo of three-setters; he prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5) at the 2014 Indian Wells Masters and 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-4 one season later on the grass of Queen’s Club. They most recently faced each other earlier this year in Brisbane, where Nadal restored order to the matchup by getting the job done 6-3, 6-3 for his first defeat of Dolgopolov since the 2014 Rio de Janeiro title match.

Not many could have predicted that this borderline rivalry would be renewed in New York when the draw was revealed last Friday and put them three rounds away from one another. After all, a struggling Dolgopolov had been just 16-17 in 2017 with five retirements and recent match-fixing accusations in Winston-Salem–where he lost right away to Thiago Monteiro 6-3, 6-3. Out of seemingly nowhere, however, the world No. 64 has advanced at the U.S. Open by beating Jan-Lennard Struff (in five sets), Tomas Berdych (four), and Viktor Troicki (three). If Dolgopolov’s tournament got off to a relatively slow start, Nadal has been a master of starting each match slow only to right the ship. The world No. 1 defeated Dusan Lajovic 7-6(6), 6-2, 6-2, came back from a set and a break down to beat Taro Daniel 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, and fought past Leonardo Mayer 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-1, 6-4 on Saturday evening. Nadal is now looking to advance farther than the fourth round in Flushing Meadows for the first time since he last captured the title there in 2013. Although the Spaniard is not looking invincible and Dolgopolov has a decent history against him, the underdog will have to do much more than beat Struff, Troicki, and an injured Berdych in order to inspire real confidence. Nadal has done well to find solutions to early problems so far this fortnight and it should not take him long to solve a familiar foe in Dolgopolov.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(3) Roger Federer vs. (33) Philipp Kohlschreiber

It is becoming a trend at this U.S. Open: Federer facing an opponent against whom he owns double-digit wins compared to zero losses. The Swiss had been 16-0 against Mikhail Youzhny, 12-0 against Feliciano Lopez, and now he is 11-0 at the expense of Kohlschreiber–his Monday opponent. Counting the trio of victories Federer has already scored at this U.S. Open, he is a combined 43-0 against his first four adversaries. Despite those gaudy numbers, though, it has not come easy. The 36-year-old needed five sets to scrape past both Frances Tiafoe and Mikhail Youzhny before raising his level considerably in a 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 rout of Lopez on Saturday night.

Kohlschreiber earned another shot at Federer by defeating Tim Smyczek, Santiago Giraldo, and John Millman, The 37th-ranked German has not yet dropped a set nor even been extended to a single tiebreaker. He is a perfect 11-0 in non-retirement matches since Wimbledon and 15-0 in his last 15 sets dating back to the Kitzbuhel quarterfinals. During this stretch, however, Kohlschreiber has not faced anyone in the current top 25. The competition level now ratchets up exponentially in the form of Federer, who eased concerns surrounding his potentially bad back with his much-improved performance against Lopez.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 12 games or fewer

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78 Comments on U.S. Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Dolgopolov, Federer vs. Kohlschreiber

      • Amy,

        Yes. I am here! The answer is the fearhand is back! That really is the key shot for Rafa! When he gets it working, his whole game comes together!

        You would have been very happy to see Rafa today! ROS was working well, forehand and backhand and volleying at net.

        This was great to see!

        • So happy nny!!
          Yes the forehand is the key because that’s the barometer of Rafa’s mental state..
          Has he played rublev before? Looks like it will be him..

          • Amy,

            I don’t think he’s played him before. I posted some thoughts about Rafa facing Rublev. We know that if’s tricky with these young guys who get on a roll and get through unexpectedly. They have nothing to lose.

            But Rafa’s performance today gives me reason to think that he will be ready. I always believe that Rafa has the advantage in a best of five set match. He will be physically stronger and will need to wear down Rublev.

            It’s been great to have you here live blogging with us! I hope you get to see Rafa’s next match!

          • I will try hard to be around to live blog nny!!
            Thanks for your great posts!
            Always a pleasure to blog with you vr and rc!!

        • Those predictions of Dolgo beating Rafa were way off base! I knew that Rafa would win, but did not think it would be this easy!

          Rada is peaking at the right time. He has another gear or two. Hopefully we will see him play even better in the quarterfinals.

          • Way off base is an understatement. Rafa would have won even if Dolgopolov played better because Rafa is back to being in great form. But I must admit I was pretty disappointed with the effort Dolgopolov put forth. From the start, he was just whacking the ball as hard as he could either forty feet out or for a winner but mostly forty feet out. One game there were three shots he hit that bounced so far out I didn’t see the ball actually bounce. I truly expected the good in form Dolgopolov that actually cares to show up today. Boy was I wrong!! Once again thank you for teaching him a lesson Rafa. Dolgopolov deserved no more than the seven games he got off of you lol

    • Amy darling, Rafa will likely have Rublev next or an injured Goffin (why is he still out there!) Goffin would certainly have beat Rublev if he was 100%.

      Not to put Rublev down. He actually appears to be playing better today but I’d have to say much of that is due to Goffin’s inability to move freely. Rafa v Rublev will be good! A good experience for Rublev – making the quarters is no small feat for the 19 year old.

      • I get nervous about these young lower ranked guys who get on a roll. Who would have thought this 19 year old would be on the brink of making the quarterfinals! He backed up his win over Dimi.

        He will come out with no pressure, nothing to lose and just go for his shots. Rafa played well today and seems to be getting into good form now. He will have five ready for this kid. I feel better because of his performance today.

      • Have they met before rc??
        Rafa doesn’t like playing against people he’s never played against before!!
        Worry worry worry!! That’s my telos!
        Nny I was completely wild of the mark in fearing dolgo would win!
        I am a big eedjit!!

        • Amy,

          You can’t be blamed for being nervous about Rafa facing Dolgo. Given how he has struggled, there was reason. But I think the Fed fans who thought Dolgo would actually win, was wishful thinking.

          I think this performance is an indication that Rafa is getting back to his best.

        • No they have not met. But I watched Rublev both yesterday and right now. The only way he is winning is because Goffin doesn’t have both legs working. But I will say Rublev appears motivated and more energized than yesterday. Remember Rublev came through qualifying and that’s how he played yesterday – it showed! But he’s got some adrenaline racing through his veins and not a sign of bad gas. LOL . but tommorrow he’ll be bent over holding his side trying to compete with Rafa! 😀

          • Rublev is seizing the day with both hands….actually looking better as the match gets close to over. Wow. Congrats Andrey Rublev for making it this far.

            Sad for Goffin, playing like that but he refused to retire….must not be that concerned.

          • His idols are Marat Safin and Rafa Nadal. bless his heart….he’s going to be severely punished by Rafa LOL beaten to smithereens!

      • Nny

        I believe Gilbert used the word “hammered”. If Rublev plays like he did today he’ll get hammered by Rafa 😀 I was listening to ESPN but watching Rublev v Goffin on a dicey free stream.

  1. I think I played a solid match. I know he is a player who can play amazing shots but sometimes a little bit unpredictable. He combined amazing points with mistakes so I tried to be focused with myself.

    He was returning with a slice forehand I felt that, if I hit the forehand down the line, he has less space to attack.

    Carlos Moya, it is great to have him on the team. He’s more than a coach. He’s one of the best friends I ever had on the tour.

    I think he came with a lot of motivation and ideas and very positive all the time and believing a lot in what we’re doing. A combination of him, Toni and Francis has been great. (via BBC)

    • Thanks for placing Rafa’s words here, vr. Rafa has never been stingy about sharing credit for his wins. One of the many, many things I love about him. I know he and Carlos have had a beautiful friendship and now a beautiful coaching relationship.

      Thrilled with this win and more thrilled to see Rafa playing really well. I know the Dog can be dangerous – he’s also very up and down. I also know that Rafa’s quite capable of starting off slowly and improving as a tournament goes on. He’s a worker and a thinker.

  2. I predicted that RAFITO would win but i didn’t want him to win,i have not officially predicted that Rafa would lose any of his last 4 matches because i knew he would win.

    I thought Rafa would blow D. Lajovic away so i picked him to win in 3 easy sets i.e under games, after that prediction failed i started picking the over.

    Today Rafa blew A. Dolgopolov away, his best win in this tournament.
    You guy’s know that i like R. Nadal and if you don’t know, i do like him he is amazing and i like BUT RAFITO won’t reach the Finals.

    I want to predict that he would lose his next match but i need to be careful and i need 2 do some minor research.
    If R. Nadal defeats A. Rublev his next match won’t be pretty, no matter who he meets, if it’s R. Federer i believe Roger will win in 3 sets not 5 sets maybe 4 but i believe Roger can do it in 3 tight sets, others might win in 5 or 4 sets but R. Federer will do it in 3 sets, maybe 4.

    I wish all tennis fans the best, let the best man/player win no matter who it is, but i know it’s Roger Federer.

    R.I.T.B 4.0(Roger is the best)lol!
    R.I.T.B 3.0 how are you doing?

  3. Joe,

    I am not doing any ‘told you so’ or something like that.

    I do not honestly understand the rationale behind picking Dolgo. It is not about analyzing it in retrospect. I can’t remember who it was but I even read someone saying before the match that Rafa will lose because he is not playing well AND because Dolgo is red hot and when he is red hot, he is very difficult to stop!

    I can understand if someone put emphasis on the first point but Dolgo getting on a role and being that difficult to stop for a player of Nadal’s caliber? WHEN has Dolgo gone on a roll honestly? He has not made it past the 3rd round in RG and Wimby and this 4th rnd was his best at the USO. His wins over Rafa in 3 sets meanr very very little. He beat Rafa in 2015 (the worst year ever for Rafa) and IW 2014 which was also a very bad patch for Rafa following his AO back injury.

    It would have been shocking if Dolgo had actually played at a high level consistently for 4-5 sets against one of the best defenders the game has ever seen.

    • VR, of course my prediction was based on Nadal playing at his current level, which since the FO has been pretty average. Otherwise he wouldn’t have lost early in the tournaments he’s played. He also hasn’t performed well at the USO for several years, so there wasn’t a lot of reason to think he would step it up. Just recently on this forum, some hardcore Nadal fans have suggested that maybe Nadal should stick to clay from now on.

      Yes, Dolgopolov is inconsistent. But he’s had a lot of injuries over the years, in addition to having a rare health condition. As I said, when he’s healthy and not fatigued, he’s an extremely dangerous opponent. So, I stick to my claim: it wouldn’t have been shocking had he won. Shocking was Nadal losing to Shapovalov or Lukas Rosol, not a player who has been ranked as high as 13 and was starting to show signs of playing at that level again.

      • I was one of those who suggested that Rafa should just stick to clay, if he couldn’t overcome his nerve and kept losing winnable matches on the HCs.

        Apparently Rafa did overcome his nervous issue to beat whoever in front of him, it’s just that he took longer than necessary to do the job. Rafa knows Dolgo’s style of play and he’s well prepared, I’m sure he knows better than any of us here. It’s not like Rafa hasn’t played against a Dolgo at his best (Rio 2014 final); chances of Rafa winning > Dolgo’s and it’s not like Rafa almost lost his matches here, to start with. To me, it’s a matter of Rafa winning in straight sets or going the distance.

      • Fed when playing well had his hiccups too, losing to Donskoy on Dubai fast HC and to Haas on grass, so Rafa losing on HCs while disappointing wasn’t something impossible. It’s the way Rafa lost (from winning position vs Shapo and he came out flat vs Krygios) that was disappointing.

        Rafa had his hiccups here at the USO but was able to overcome them and progressed so it’s something positive and he’s improving. He rarely played badly once reaching the QF of a slam, his 2015 being the exception.

    • It was me I just thought because Rafa doesn’t usually like playing mercurial guys who play with a lot of shotmaking and play at a very quick pace. Examples would be Dustin Brown and Kyrgios. And I thought Dolgo, who possesses those qualities, had a real shot considering he won two of their last three matches and he got on a roll against Troicki that was what I referred to. But I should’ve realized he wouldn’t be able to sustain that level over five with Rafa. My mistake but I had honest reasoning behind it. Dolgopolov really looked to be approaching peak form and Rafa still struggled early in all his prior matches which isn’t something you want to do against a guy like Dolgopolov. But it was Dolgopolov who was worse at the start and Rafa just ran away with it, slinging fearhands and letting Dolgopolov quickly go away.

      • Benny, Rafa had problem with Brown and Krygios because their encounters were on grass. Rafa lost to Krygios at Cincy because Rafa really came out flat; Rafa did play horribly at Montreal and Cincy this season.

        Rafa wasn’t playing badly this USO, only started slowly hence his opponents could take advantage but once Rafa regain his calm, he swept them aside. Dolgo couldn’t sustain his hit or miss style for three or more sets so it’s unlikely he’s going to beat Rafa.

        I would also say that should Rafa meet Shapo here, Rafa would beat him too. If Shapo couldn’t have an edge over PCB, he couldn’t over Rafa here.

    • Also I figured this crazy tournament might just get crazier. But not that crazy thankfully. We are still gonna get that Fedal semifinal ? I’m so excited for that!!

  4. Kohlschreiber needs his own GOD MODE switch to flip.

    Down 2 sets to love to Fed. 64 62
    But apparently Fed just left the court for a private MTO. Huh?

    • Something needed privately adjusting… so they say. Had to go off court for it but whatever it was didn’t require much time hahahahaha

      • I though it was odd that Fed decided to take the MTO after winning the second set. I guess he is managing the back issue. The ESPN commies said that players do that when they need treatment for the lower body. They have a room where they can get a massage or treatment.

        I don’t see Kohls troubling Fed and I think Fed knows that. The MTO might have been precautionary.

  5. Also, credit to you for picking the match correctly beforehand.

    And to Rafa for a dominant performance. If he plays like that against Fed playing like he did against Kohls, it will be a close match. I’d still give Roger the edge based on his serving today. However, Roger has a tough match ahead of him before then (Rafa maybe not so much against Rublev).

    • Maybe. Delpo’s been sick last couple of days. He credited the crowd with pulling him through the match. He won’t have so much of the crowd with him vs Roger. We shall see.

      • I think Delpo can recover given two days of rest. I think it may be a night match for his QF, so he will feel better without the heat. He really looked sick during his match with Thiem.

        I thought Thiem was going to beat him comfortably but credit to Delpo for turning things around. I don’t think he will beat Fed, but may push Fed to the limit. He’s not like Feli or Kohl, who are hopeless against Fed, not even a single win after > 10 encounters; Delpo at least has 5 wins over Fed in their 20 encounters. I doubt it will be straight forward for Fed.

        • Don’t think Delpo has anything left for the match with Fed. He played on adrenaline and won through feeling unwell. Even in his post match interview he made a remark regarding his next match and possible rematch with Fed at USO saying: this ( victory) is enough for me… Fed will have an easy time with Delboy..

          • I would love to think that Delpo could make a match of it. If he wasn’t sick and didn’t play a marathon five setter in which he had to come back from two sets down, then he might be able to do it. But I think Delpo won’t have much left. I would love if he proved me wrong, but Fed will be fresh as a daisy and it should be a routine match for him.

          • Delpo’s match lasted only 3 hrs 35 mins, it’s not even a 4 hour match. If that’s enough to give Delpo physical fitness problem, then he’s really a very unfit player.

            I’m sure Thiem, should he win, would be fit to play two days later. Delpo really messing up the draw and makes life easier for Fed. I mean he saying things like that is totally unprofessional, I’m not sure Thiem would be happy hearing that. Delpo was just happy to reach the QF??

  6. Dolgo didn’t turn up, simples. But that’s Dolgo, mercurial. It was easy for Rafa, which I like. He was able to play with calm, hopefully this settles his nerves which for me, are what stands between him and a 3rd USOPEN crown.

  7. Unlike Uncle Toni, I want a Fedal semi. I want Rafa to win his 16th Slam by beating Fed on the way, that would be awesome.

    Toni says he would rather Rafa plays someone else, not Fed, if he makes it to the semi. Carlos Moyà says why not, Rafa will be ready for Fed if he gets to the semi. I’m with Carlos on this. What’s been the deciding factor in Fed’s victories against Rafa this year has been attitude in my opinion. Fed seems to have a new positivity against Rafa, something he never had before. Rafa needs to dent this positivity and a good being over Fed, especially here on his favourite surface, will do the trick.

    This is why Carlos’s attitude is helpful and Toni’s is not at this juncture. Carlos needs to banish Toni to sight-seeing in New York so he does not infect Rafa with his negativity about playing Fed. What Raf needs right now is someone who tells him he is #1 for a reason, he has a lop-sided H2H with Fed for a reason, he has the weapons to re-awaken those doubts in Fed’s head.

    C’mon Rafa! You are the boss. Put Fed in his place…………better than everybody else, except you.

    • Frankly what gives me confidence is not rafa himself but Carlos moya. Carlos has been positive influence.

      However I still feel advantage fed if semi happens and I hope rafa proves me wrong.

      • I’m the opposite @Sanju, I feel Rafa breaks the 3-match losing streak this time round for the same reason for your positivity: Carlos. Carlos wants the Fed monkey off his back. Can’t sit well with him knowing Fed’s resurgence over Rafa started when he joined the coaching staff.

      • I expect Rafa to bide his time in the first set, figuring out his game and then drop the hammer. No way Rafa’s not making the semis!

    • ?RITB!

      I agree with you. In fact I blame Toni (I’ve repeated this many times) for making Rafa the nervous, panicking, lacking in confidence guy that he is now. Toni always dent Rafa’s confidence by saying he’s not the best, other top players are more talented than him, he even said that had Murray or Djoko played to their full potential talent wise, he won’t know what to do to help Rafa overcome them! Such words from a coach’s mouth, no wonder Rafa become so low in confidence and so nervous prone!

      Rafa should have gotten in Moya well before last year, maybe before Moya worked with Raonic. Rafa had wasted two solid years ‘wandering in the wilderness’ when his whole team couldn’t help him get out of there.

      Imo, had Rafa skipped the AO in 2015 and came back to play on clay in Feb just like he did in 2013, perhaps his 2015 might turn out to be similar to his 2013. Rafa needs to build confidence from winning matches.

      Moya really has a positive impact on Rafa, since he joined the team, Rafa’s career has headed in the right direction, back on track in his winning ways and even reaching the pinnacle in the rankings. I do hope Moya’s presence at this USO really helps Rafa to his 3rd USO title, which I think as long as Rafa plays to his full potential without any doubt in his head, he’s capable of doing so.

      • I think Toni was essential to Rafa during his formative years because he was such a precocious talent he needed someone to infuse humility in him to prevent him losing his way like how some of today’s youngsters, like Kyrgios, have.

        Now Rafa is older, he has lost some of that precocious advantage, he needs to replace it with something else: positive attitude. This is where Carlos comes in, to re-jig that balance, bring in a different perspective, especially on attitude. You could be right, maybe this re-balancing should have been done earlier, maybe they realized the change needed to be made late, this is why Toni is stepping down now. It really is time for Toni to step down, he has done his part.

        I can’t see any changes Fed’s made to his game except attitude and this has paid off big time. After the Do,go match Rafa said he was calm on court and the result showed. He needs to bring that calm, and belief, into every match.

        If he can beat Fed en route to the title it would be massive, massive.

        • RITB 3.0 (AT 8:03 AM),

          Toni & Rafa have explained several times why Toni will stop travelling with Rafa next year.
          In July, asked AGAIN at press conference about uncle Toni’s decision, Rafa replied:
          “I answered couple of times this question. I understand your question, but we cannot be talking about this after every Grand Slam, no? We talk about that in Roland Garros. Here the same. We had the great story together. Still year to play. But that’s it. It’s not the end of the world. He’s not leaving to China, as I said a lot of times now. He’s there in the academy. I will be practicing there. We live just two minutes walking from his house to my house, so not a big deal.”

    • Maybe you’re right about Moya, but I remember what he said after the Indian Wells loss, which was pretty defeatist: sometimes, when Roger is playing his best, there is not much the other guy can do. Some people on this forum didn’t like Moya saying that, and thought it wasn’t any better than Toni. Myself, I think what Moya said is just true, even if the other guy is Rafa -as long as the match isn’t on clay.

      So: As I see it, this match is still on Roger’s racquet. He has beaten Nadal 3 times on HC this season, and that will definitely be in Nadal’s mind. Once narrowly (at AO) and twice soundly, even on a slow HC (in Miami) like this one.

      The real wildcard, in my opinion, is Roger’s back. He’s been very honest about it. He denied it was a problem in first two rounds but he admitted that yesterday’s MTO was for that reason. If it flares up, that obviously could change everything -including in the delpo match. However, if Roger is healthy, and especially if he serves like he did against Kohlschreiber, where he didn’t even face a break point in 3 sets, I think he’s a clear favourite against Rafa if they meet.

      • Please do not bring up Roger’s back issue,@Joe Smith. I am not saying Fed’s lying but it just brings back harrowing memories of Rafa being pilloried by Fedfans for doing exactly that: mentioning a physical ailment he might be carrying while playing, being labeled a whiner, told to not talk about his injuries and that if he is playing he is fit, being told they were excuses in case he lost.

        So, yeah, forgive me if I, as a Rafan am a bit touchy about the subject of injuries thanks to Fedfan abuse against my fav on the issue.

        If Fed is playing, he is fit, shall we go with that?

        Thanks.

        • Well RITB, it’s not that simple, as I’m sure you know. Would you say that since Rafa was playing during the 2014 AO final, he was fit? Didn’t think so; neither would I. I’ve not one of those Federer fans who thinks Nadal makes up his injuries.

          Fed says his back was fine after the treatment against Kohls, and I believe him. I assume it will be fine at the start of the delpo match. But unless he’s making things up, he’s re-aggravated it over the last month, and I was just pointing out that it’s always possible he re-injures it mid-match. If so, I assume we’ll be able to tell, as we could in the 2nd set against Zverev in Montreal or (more obviously) in Rafa’s match against Stan at the AO.

          A lot of these guys carry nagging injuries, especially at their age.

    • SFs are on Friday. The first SF starts at 4pm which I think should be the bottom half who starts first. So, if Rafa plays in the SF, it will be after that, so most likely it’ll be an evening match or even a night match.

      • If it’s Fedal no question, it will be a night match. The night conditions and noise will suit Fed better but Rafa will bring it…….

        I want Rafa to complete the Fed-Slam: beating Fed at every Slam. Now that Fed appears to have decided the better part of valor is to avoid RG, he will never have an opportunity to return the favour.

        • I feel the only chance for Rafa is if Fed is very tired. But he has a flat tired ill DElpo , so he will finish his qtr really quick and be fresh for semi.

          I somehow cant see how Rafa will beat Fed with the way things have panned this year, this being a faster HC, it is at night(no sun which Rafa loves), maybe even indoors if it rains and now Fed even fit with no back issue.. Everything is stacked against Rafa and if he pulls it out, it will indeed be massive..

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