The first-ever Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer showdown at the U.S. Open is becoming closer and closer with each passing round. They are two wins apiece away as the action heads into Monday, when quarterfinal spots will be at stake.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
Nadal and Dolgopolov will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they clash in round four of the U.S. Open on Monday. The head-to-head series stands at 6-2 in favor of Nadal, who has won four of their five previous hard-court encounters. Dolgopolov’s victories came in a duo of three-setters; he prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5) at the 2014 Indian Wells Masters and 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-4 one season later on the grass of Queen’s Club. They most recently faced each other earlier this year in Brisbane, where Nadal restored order to the matchup by getting the job done 6-3, 6-3 for his first defeat of Dolgopolov since the 2014 Rio de Janeiro title match.
Not many could have predicted that this borderline rivalry would be renewed in New York when the draw was revealed last Friday and put them three rounds away from one another. After all, a struggling Dolgopolov had been just 16-17 in 2017 with five retirements and recent match-fixing accusations in Winston-Salem–where he lost right away to Thiago Monteiro 6-3, 6-3. Out of seemingly nowhere, however, the world No. 64 has advanced at the U.S. Open by beating Jan-Lennard Struff (in five sets), Tomas Berdych (four), and Viktor Troicki (three). If Dolgopolov’s tournament got off to a relatively slow start, Nadal has been a master of starting each match slow only to right the ship. The world No. 1 defeated Dusan Lajovic 7-6(6), 6-2, 6-2, came back from a set and a break down to beat Taro Daniel 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, and fought past Leonardo Mayer 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-1, 6-4 on Saturday evening. Nadal is now looking to advance farther than the fourth round in Flushing Meadows for the first time since he last captured the title there in 2013. Although the Spaniard is not looking invincible and Dolgopolov has a decent history against him, the underdog will have to do much more than beat Struff, Troicki, and an injured Berdych in order to inspire real confidence. Nadal has done well to find solutions to early problems so far this fortnight and it should not take him long to solve a familiar foe in Dolgopolov.
Pick: Nadal in 3
[polldaddy poll=9822105]
(3) Roger Federer vs. (33) Philipp Kohlschreiber
It is becoming a trend at this U.S. Open: Federer facing an opponent against whom he owns double-digit wins compared to zero losses. The Swiss had been 16-0 against Mikhail Youzhny, 12-0 against Feliciano Lopez, and now he is 11-0 at the expense of Kohlschreiber–his Monday opponent. Counting the trio of victories Federer has already scored at this U.S. Open, he is a combined 43-0 against his first four adversaries. Despite those gaudy numbers, though, it has not come easy. The 36-year-old needed five sets to scrape past both Frances Tiafoe and Mikhail Youzhny before raising his level considerably in a 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 rout of Lopez on Saturday night.
Kohlschreiber earned another shot at Federer by defeating Tim Smyczek, Santiago Giraldo, and John Millman, The 37th-ranked German has not yet dropped a set nor even been extended to a single tiebreaker. He is a perfect 11-0 in non-retirement matches since Wimbledon and 15-0 in his last 15 sets dating back to the Kitzbuhel quarterfinals. During this stretch, however, Kohlschreiber has not faced anyone in the current top 25. The competition level now ratchets up exponentially in the form of Federer, who eased concerns surrounding his potentially bad back with his much-improved performance against Lopez.
Pick: Federer in 3 losing 12 games or fewer
[polldaddy poll=9822106]
WWW?
Rafa in four, Fed in three or four.
I can’t believe, Fed keeps having those guys who lost to him >10 times with 0 win against him, one after another! First Youzhny, then Feli and now Kohl! Not to mention Ferrer at Montreal! They’re just hopeless against him!
The are good player’s and they can win but i don’t think they can cos R. Federer is something else.
It’s not just a physical battle but psychological as well, if they are psychologically prepared/ready they will have a shot.
Roger Federer has not lost a tournament this year when he wins 2 matches, so it will be really hard, maybe impossible.
Montreal 2017??
Nice well done! So it’s possible, i forgot.
I picked A. Zverev to win Montreal in my bracket and i also put some money in that match and won.
A. Zverev is not here, so who can do it?
There’s no need to ask that question, let’s see how things unfold. We’re not the ones who determine the results!
Dolgopolov in four and Fed in three losing 12 games or fewer
Once R. Federer starts playing no one can stop him.
Don’t get this twisted but R. Nadal is in BIG trouble, if he doesn’t want to get embarrassed he better lose b4 he meets Federer cos if he meets R. Federer the 4th time this year it would be brutal.
Nothing will stop R. Federer 4rm winning his 3rd Grand Slam this year, mark my words.
Ricky picked F. Lopez to defeat Roger Federer in 4, when we all know that Roger Federer will win title.
I told everyone not to panic, even some of Roger Federer fans here, R. Federer is one of my favourites and i know he will win the title but some of Federer fans are doubting him and that’s disappointing.
I really like R. Nadal and i mean it but Roger Federer will win his 3rd Slam this year.
I don’t think Roger Federer will be playing Professional tennis in the next 3-5 years, what do you guys think?
Do you see Federer playing in the US OPEN in the year 2020?
When this great player(R. Federer) retires, it will break my heart, tennis as we know it will be over, it will be dead without him.
Soccer is my favourite sport but tennis is winning my heart.
I can’t remember the last time i watched a soccer match from beginning to end(full 90 minutes).
I have always loved tennis but i became passionate with it in 2014.
When did you guy’s fall in love with tennis?
This site is turning out to be a borderline trolling site with people trolling garbage..Ricky – Please do something about this. It is getting irritating.
Your comments are what is garbage, who is stopping you from supporting the player you like.
What kind of useless statement is that, i like R. Nadal a lot but i believe R. Federer will win the title.
Once R. Federer wins two matches in a tournament this year it’s game over.
Did I make a reference to you? Why are you taking it personally.
Look up definition of trolling..saying the same thing again and again on different threads is called trolling 🙂
Sure Roger can win , he is more than capable. I also feel he is favorite but saying same thing over and over on all threads is borderline irritating 🙂
Be careful with your words, don’t you ever tell me to look up something again.
If you read my comments, you will notice the difference, i made some additions to it but even if i didn’t how does this effect you?
You said you weren’t referring 2 me and yet you are telling me to look up the definition of a word.
I will say this again, plzzz be careful with your words, i don’t have the time 4 silly conversations & useless statements.
If you would like to discuss tennis or other important subjects fine but mind your words.
Ok keep trolling 🙂
Believe me! You don’t want me to respond to that NONSENSE you posted.
Got to be smart. Best ignore.
Rafa early slow starts are worrying to say the least. Dologopolov can be tricky and hope Rafa wakes up. It is important Goffin wins against Rubulev..rafa has never played against Rubulev and he will surely have his jitters there too..
Fed in my opinion is going to face no trouble vs Kohls..against Thiem/Delpo he can drop a set.
Also, of late, Rafa seems to be having trouble breaking down these single hand back handers. Mayer hung with Rafa trading blows, Rafa pummeling his BH and Mayer standing his ground. I noticed that since his recent return from injury.
maybe his FH has lost its earlier zing and venom..also maybe others like Fed are hitting over the BH and stretching Rafa on FH..its always been his vulnerable side if stretched
In AO and even later, Fed kept taking ball early and hitting over his BH and hence overcame Rafas FH barrage..
Whatever it is, I found myself willing Rafa to just Find a FHDTL and end the point rather than pummeling Mayer’s BH to no effect. I think the potency of Rafa’s FH also has a lot to do with his court positioning. His “natural” defensive court positioning is not doing him any favors these days, definitely affecting the potency of his FH.
how do you see his next 2 matches panning out RITB? And his semi with Roger if it comes to pass?
I feel Roger is surely in semi and has definite advantage over Rafa if Rafa makes it.
Well, Dolgo is going to be a challenge because of his unpredictability. I feel Rafa will win but he has to avoid being stretched otherwise his campaign is over. Like you, I hope he gets to play Goffin after, not Rublev because Rafa has not played him before and Rafa always finds it tricky playing players he has not met before.
I’ll wait to see how Rafa fares against Dolgo and Goffin/Rublev before pronouncing on the semis…
Have you had a chance to watch Rublev, RITB and Sanju?
From what I watched of Rublev, he’s well on his way to being toast – he struggled with Dzumhir. Talented young man, no doubt, a man for the future, certainly, but the 19 yr. old would not threaten Rafa at this point in this or any GS. For one thing, Rublev needs a fitness coach like Sascha Zverev has to put some muscle on him. He’s underdeveloped right now. I’d like to see Rublev v Shapovalov!! Shapo at 18 is stronger and more dangerous than Rublev.
Also doubt very much that Rublev will make it past Goffin, even though Goffin may not be 100% yet. He’s lacking match fitness post knee injury. But Goffin is one of my favorite players because of his speed and the way he takes the ball early. Rublev tends to hang back too much and doesn’t play his best on hc. No doubt in a few years, if we are lucky, Rublev should be fighting it out with the best of his age group.
I don’t see Rublev bothering Rafa at all right now. the question is, can he bother Goffin?
Shaky, nervous first set Rafa under a closed roof will prevail!
No, have yet to watch Rublev play @ratcliff. Well, from your take looks like I shouldn’t worry too much but guess what, players get a second wind when they see Rafa across the net these days and Rafa does struggle against players he hasn’t played before.
Most of these youngsters are woefully short, stamina wise. None of them seem to be investing in that side of their game, which is surprising, especially if they have any GS ambition.
I am really nervous about the Dolgo match. Mercurial player who has it in him to rattle Rafa. Rafa’s BP conversion rate is cause for concern, pointing to nascent anxieties. He really needs to get his nerves under control because Dolgo will everything in his power to get under his skin.
I am just glad he won’t have to face the Canadian youngster, Shapo, until in the finals if he makes it that far. He’s got game…….and good attitude.
To be honest my initial thoughts on Rublev vs Goffin is that Rublev will win. Even though I like Goffin gen times better I feel Rublev will be fresher and more importantly I still don’t know if Goffin is really back. He is in the fourth round but he’s mightily struggled against weaker opposition to get here and then was fortunate enough to come up against an injured Monfils. My first thoughts are Rublev upsets Goffin but I’ll have to think about that one.
Avoid being stretched. Wanted to touch upon this. Is there a belief that Rafa is fatigued. I believe even though Rafa’s matches are lasting two and a half hours on an average, they have not been that physical like Aus Open matches against Zverev and Monfilis.
Or Is Rafa really tired ? I believe fatigue wont be factor as long as Rafa keeps winning till four sets . What do you think ?
By stretched I mean stretched on fh side. Not stretched as in fatigued
I wish Rafa would get a sports psychologist on board, anything to get his nerves under control. He is no longer a spring chicken so less time spent on court will always be advantageous.
Well, Dolgo will not engage in long rallies, that is not his style so in theory, the match should not stretch too far. Dolgo is also a confidence player and if he gets a set off Rafa, especially the first set, then Dolgo could really become a nuisance. I hope Rafa comes in hot, takes the first set and keeps squeezing…………..
Hahaha! Guess which animal always come to my mind when I think of Rafa playing? A giant python. I have visions of Rafa slowly wrapping his game around his opponent’s torso and …………..squeezing, slowly…….until the opponent is a lifeless rag-doll, ready for the coup de grace, being swallowed…….
Sorry if that was too graphic but I am feeling particularly evil today, really pumped for this Dolgo match………
hahhaha too bad we have to wait until tomorrow for Rafa v Dolgo! Dang. All ATP matches tomorrow look interesting – maybe even exciting.
Today not so much – except for the first one – Shapo v PCB. And on the WTA side: Garbine vs Kvitova 😀
Benny, I’m very high on Goffin after his win over Pella and watching him in the first set v Monfils yesterday. Goffin was an ace machine over those 5 sets vs Pella. I don’t think of Goffin as an ace machine nor did I think he’d come out strong the following match! Monfils was able to fight and make one set competitive — and it was a beautiful to watch the good friends go at it: Goffin and Monfils. I didn’t see any problem with Goffin’s movement. Unfortunately, Monfils retired after losing the first set — he was having a knee issue and wasn’t able to keep up the level in the 2nd set. I am surprised how well Goffin has performed.
Very confident that Rublev is going to lose LOL….we’ll see 😀
fg and other ppl who were sure of Rafa winning USO 2017..what is your take now after seeing Roger today?
atul…your take?
vamosrafa…???
I fell asleep and missed Roger’s match. But polishing off Feli in 3 sets tells me that he’s getting more comfortable than in the Youzhny match, the last time I watched Fed. We’ll see which Federer turns up and what Kohls can do. If he beats Kohls in straight sets…well, god bless him. I picked Fed to lose to Kyrgios in my bracket, but my hopes expectations were far too high for Kyrgios.
Apparently Fed is not done yet, lol. Rafa is my title winner pick.
I agree about Rafa; if he can get past Dolgo who is a tricky opponent that won’t give Rafa any rhythm, I think Rafa will be in good position for the title.
Love watching Dolgo when he’s on. But picking him to win more than two rounds at any tournament is risky. He’s dangerous no doubt. But he’s already had a tough 5 set win over Struff, a 4 set win over poor Berdych and then straight sets easy win over Troicki, a guy that was ready to have his ticket punched.
Maybe I’d feel differently if I truly thought Dolgo had a shot at winning a GS title, but I don’t. I’d hate to see him somehow beat Rafa, then lose the next round as usual.
Rafa can win it, even with a fired up Dog. I’ll admit I didn’t think Dolgo would get this far — there’s always a possibility. More likely, Rafa in 3, or at his nervous worst, 4 or 5.
Dolgo beat a subpar Berdych (Berdych was back from injury, not much match play prior to USO).
Dolgo’s problem is his going for broke mentality, sometimes pulling the trigger too soon. Rafa standing so far back may play into Dolgo’s hands, Dolgo will serve his usual quick serve and then rushes forward to the net to intercept Rafa’s weak ROS.
rc,
I really appreciate your attitude. You keep it real. It seems obvious to me that Fed fans want Dolgo to take out Rafa. I think it’s wishful thinking because he’s done nothing recently to indicate that he can make a serious run.
The guys he beat are NOT Rafa! As you said, Berdy had a back issue. Troicki is nothing these days. Rafa is a big step up.
I think it will be tricky and I hope that Rafa doesn’t come out with a slow start again. I think he’s playing himself into form and that’s a good thing.
I know you are not a Rafa fan. You call it as you see it. But I do appreciate the respect you show for Rafa.
Thanks, Nny!
I’m more of a Rafa fan than I think! I’m missing Novak of course – and Andy Murray. But Vamos Rafa 😀
??? I would LOVE to see Fedal semifinal what are you talking about?! But I truly believe Dolgopolov will win just as I truly believed Muller would!! I have great respect for Rafa as most on this site do. Honestly I don’t know how you can’t have respect for a guy like Nadal. Extremely hard worker, total badass, has dominated a tournament with ten wins at it, and just fighting so hard every point like it’s the last. Rafa matches are always exciting to watch and I don’t root against Rafa in his matches for the sake of being a Fed fan. Only time I admit my logic was sort of wishful thinking was the RG final but that’s got nothing to do with Fed it was Stan who I am a huge fan of which I’m pretty sure most on here know including you.
I just read there were rumours all day of Roger pulling out from tournament..haha..and he comes and puts a masterclass 🙂
Did you really expect Feli to trouble Fed? I don’t get that. Feli’s game plays right into Fed’s wheel, much like SHBH used to play into Rafa’s…….
No I was sure Fed would roll over him. I was surprised that anyone even thought otherwise. Feli would always have rolled over so would Verdasco and so would many others…
He didn’t roll over. Fed was just back (no pun intended).
people expected Fed to trouble Fed. had nothing to do with Lopez.
so now he is back to being fav Ricky for title in your eyes?
Ricky said it right. I expected Fed to trouble Fed – that is always a possibility. At his age, I expect anything – same with Venus Williams.
I agree with Ricky, it’s more to do with Fed than with Feli! Feli’s game plays into Fed’s hands; it’s the counter punchers and the hard hitters who have better chances vs Fed.
Fed had problem with Youzhny not because of Youzhny’s game but because of how Fed played!
Kohls shouldn’t give Fed any trouble but DelPo or Thiem just might. Will be interesting to see who gets through. Delpo looked much better in his last match. Thiem really likes the very slow USO court this year. Gives him time for his big swings.
Thiem surprises me, I guess the slower court here (slower than AO) suits his game better. Thiem has a big serve, big FH and good SHBH, there’s no reason he can’t do well on slow to medium fast HCs.
As for Delpo, what’s with him that he slipped and fell so frequently on a HC (he fell thrice during his match with Agut)? I think Thiem will beat Delpo and face off with Fed in the QF.
That’s my bracket pick, Thiem over Delpo. I don’t know why Delpo is falling down, but if he isn’t too beat up, he could hit Thiem off the court – less easily than he did RBA but I see a few brackets picking Delpo over Thiem. Both would be dangerous to Fed – but maybe not as dangerous as Fed is to himself, lol
I don’t know. Is it possible Fed’s been telling the simple truth? Not enough practice coming into the tournament because his back was recovering? Fed does not seem to need match play to find his rhythm the way Rafa does, but he DOES need to practice, like everyone else.
Actually, what he said was that he was worried about his back (not that it was actually hurting) in the first match, and that played on his mind. In the second match, he said it was lack of practice.
If his back is fine, and he’s now back into form, he’s just resumed being the best player on tour and the clear favourite to take the title.
Based off how he played last round, Del Po should win. I dunno if he will replicate that performance or anything close to it though.
Agree – Delpo over Thiem. I didn’t pick Delpo because I was doubtful of his form. But after yesterday, have changed my mind…I think.
I’m picking an upset this round: Dolgo over Rafa in 5. The Dog (one of my faves) is one of the most talented players on tour and he is on a serious roll. Fitness and health has always been a problem for him, but he seems healthy at the moment. He’s also playing like a guy with something to prove.
To avoid the upset, I think Rafa needs to play more aggressively than he has been, and to move forward in the court. Alex can hit with some crazy angles and spin, and I think if Nadal lets him dictate play he is going to be out of the tournament.
I don’t see Kohlschreiber really troubling Federer this round; Fed in 3, maybe 4. However, he is going to have a real challenge in the following round, regardless of whether it’s delpo or Thiem. If Kohl can stretch him to 4 or 5 sets, I think fatigue is going to be a factor going forward.
Highly doubt Rafa will lose to Dolgo. I thought Rafa played significantly better yesterday despite the struggle.
I think Rafa is reaching the semis at least.
Sanju, I think then it depends on his opponent. Fed in full form means trouble. Though, I don’t think we have seen the last of Fed’s back troubles. Anything can happen in the next 2 rounds for Fed.
Atul,
I agree with your take on Rafa. He’s getting better with each match. He has raised his level of play and coming from behind and finishing strong will help him. He starts getting on a roll and I love how he seemed to feed off the crowd yesterday.
I also agree that we may not have seen the last of Fed’s back problems. You never know with backs.
I never take anything for granted at a slam.
Dolgo I agree will pose a trouble to Rafa. The same happened in wimby where rafa lost to Miller out of nowhere by playing really bad and right.
I think if he gets past dolgo then qf will be easier.
Nadal didn’t play bad at all against Muller. I mean he hit the most aces he’s hit in a match ever (20 plus) and Muller just kept bombing his serves as well. If you watched it it was just a high level match. Yeah Nadal missed a few big chances but so did Muller before finally winning.
It also wasn’t out of nowhere. Many, including myself and Ricky, had Muller over Nadal from the start of the tournament.
I know Muller plays well on grass but Rafa was on a roll after RG and even handed Kachanov the previous round very well. Kachanov is the tall hitter that usually gives Rafa fits. Few expected Rafa to lose to Muller that day. I remember you saying Muller over Rafa. Exactly what is worrying me as you saying Dolgo over Rafa (:-
Rafa can beat Rafa and that is the issue..his tightness, nervy starts are an issue. My only comforting factor is Moya is around unlike Wimby.
Not sure why I am nervous about dolgo so much.
I think Rafa will win. Dolgo is not a bug server , not a very tall player. I felt Mayer was more intimidating.
Dolgopolov is a lot better than Mayer. And he’s beaten Nadal. He also plays at a very quick pace which typically bothers Nadal. I highly doubt Nadal will feel less of a threat or less “intimidated” when playing Dolgopolov.
Rafa is not losing to Dolgo! He’s getting match tough and coming from behind and being pushed to raise his level of play, will stand him in good stead.
I am encouraged by Rafa’s performance. We are starting to see some vintage Rafa shots.
Ok I feel otherwise but it’s just my opinion. And it’s not cuz I’m a Fed fan!! Your implicit hostility to Fed fans like myself on here is pretty annoying. If I pick against Rafa you automatically misjudge why I’m picking against him. I gave completely understandable reasons for why I’m picking against him. Same with that Muller pick that I was roasted by Rafans on here for nonstop. You’re too sensitive about your guy, saying shit like how I’m disrespecting him with this pick and how I’m trying to trigger Rafans. Well I guess everyone here was disrespecting Fed when they picked against him vs Lopez because that’s all I’m doing in this case. By your logic I guess most on here are really disrespecting Shapovalov and triggering Shapovalov fans by picking Carreno Busta!! Gimme a break…
Benny,
You are the one who is getting way too sensitive! Get the chip off your shoulder!
I have not seen one person here trash Fed or take cheap shots at him when he struggled in his first two matches! Yet Fedexal has come in here and trashed Rafa repeatedly in his last two matches! So spare me the faux outrage! That’s a pathetic attempt to rile up Rafa fans! Then Fedexal disappears once Rafa is winning.
Lose the attitude! Don’t accuse me of being hostile to Fed fans and whine and play the victim! Someone picking Lopez to beat Fed match be a bad prediction. But at least Fed fans did not have to read the garbage that Rafa fans did when he was struggling!
I have had it up to here with you! Maybe you should have read Ricky’s prediction for Rafa and Dolgo! You have no real basis either with past history or performance in slams, to predict so definitely that Dolgo will beat Rafa!
So if I think it’s wishful thinking on the part of Fed fans, then that is MY opinion!
Ricky predicted Lopez beating Fed. Is that disrespecting Fed? Ricky was basing his prediction on how Fed looked and played in his previous two matches!
I have not thrown any insults or cheap shots st Fed in his first two matches. So I can speak as a Rafa fan who does not go there. So don’t tell me how I feel sbout Fed fans on this site!
You’re 100% completely missing my point. I’m not saying anyone disrespected Fed at all. I don’t feel Fed gets disrespected at all on here ever. I’m saying that when I pick against Rafa you act like I’m disrespecting him. What I’m saying is based off of your definition of “disrespecting” a player by picking against them, people were disrespecting Fed. I know they actually weren’t!! Reread what I said you’ll get what I mean. I never actually think anyone disrespects Fed on here. I meant to make it clear when I said “by your logic.” Obviously I don’t actually think people are disrespecting Federer if they pick against him. It’s just that’s what you’re doing here with me when I pick against Rafa.
Also you’re the one whining about my anti-Rafa pick. Lol imagine if I was like “oh my gosh you guys seriously think Federer is gonna lose to a guy who he is 12-0 against? He won’t lose.” I didn’t say that because I’m not sensitive to picks against Fed at all. I mean when people on here constantly talk about how Rafa will win these tournaments and analyze his chances, a lot of the time I don’t get triggered even though I completely disagree because he literally hasn’t won a hard court title in years and hasn’t shown great hard court form lately at all and has dropped the opening set in both his first two matches here. I get it though because they are Rafans and makes sense to analyze your guys chances and have hope for him to do well, I get that completely. Only thing I get annoyed at or sensitive about is when you or others generalize Fed fans and say we try to trigger you guys and hate on Rafa. Having a different opinion than you isn’t supposed to trigger you.
Sorry NNY I was overreacting a bit. You are right let’s just drop it. I’m blowing it out of proportion I apologize. Good luck to your guy and I wish him luck too because I do truly want that Fedal semifinal!!
Dolgo’s go for broke style will be his own undoing. He tends to pull the trigger at the wrong time! Rafa can handle Dolgo, his 6-2 H2H does mean something. Moreover, at a slam in a BO5 match, Rafa has time to steady himself and outlast Dolgo. Rafa in four or five sets.
Losing two of the last three to Dolgo may also mean something. ?♂️
Good to see your confidence NNY, Atul..hope it comes true.
Losing 2 of the last 3 may not mean much here..one was in 2015 right in IW when he was losing to everyone and 1 was on grass again in 2015 ..
Er… Rafa winning the most recent one may also mean something right?? You can’t pick and choose what you want, just accept the full package, i.e. Rafa is 6-2 and has won their most recent encounter, and the most recent encounter matters more than the past two wins of Dolgo during 2014/2015!
Fair point lucky. That could be the case. I personally feel head to head likely won’t have an effect in general I was just playing around with that statement. Both guys will be aware of the threat ahead and it should be a good contest with a lot of fun rallies. Can’t wait to see how it unfolds!!
Benny,
You and I have had gotten along well here. I don’t want to lose that by letting this disagreement get out of hand. You love this sport and I appreciate and respect that. I absolutely love this sport, too. That is why we are here.
If you say that you genuinely believe that Dolgo will beat Rafa, then we just have to agree to disagree. I will leave it at that.
But I do not like being accused of hostility to Fed fans. I give Fed respect. I try to be respectful to Fed fans, unless they give me a reason not to respect them. I have stated too many times on this site that I want to see Fed fans posting here, as well as fans of other players. It’s good to have different points if view and diversity.
On that note, I am just going to stick with what I have predicted for Rafa’s next match.
Same here. I have fun with these debates to be honest. But you’re right I don’t want it to get out of hand. Agree to disagree is right. ?
Although Rafa has been raising his form a bit, Dolgo is playing the best tennis I’ve seen him play in a long time. He is very much a form player, and when his form is on, he’s top 10. Of course Nadal could win, but I don’t think he will. A close match in any case.
As usual, Joe always predict that Rafa will lose his matches, so far Rafa proves you more wrong than right!
I haven’t predicted that he will lose thus far. I actually thought he would have an easier time with his first three opponents.
Rafa is ranked #1 almost exclusively on the basis of his clay court season. On HC he has not shown himself to be anything close to the world’s best player. Dolgo, meanwhile, is playing at a much higher level than his ranking suggests. So I’m saying Dolgo in 5. Even you seem to think Rafa will lose 1 or 2 sets before winning. So maybe we’re not too far apart on this one.
You said, you don’t think he(Rafa) will win!
Yeah, of course, I think Rafa will lose and you think he will win. We disagree on that. But we both seem to think it will be fairly close.
He meant so far in the tournament leading up to this round when he said “thus far”
What gives me confidence is that so many fedfans here cheer for Rafa to lose to Dolgo and if he wins they will definitely predict him losing to the likes of Rublev (beating Goffin would also be out of question I presume) This only means that they FEAR Rafa! There must be something Rafa is doing right then ??
Dolgopolov will beat Goffin or Rublev if he beats Nadal. Just my opinion.
Nats,
That is what I have been trying to say. But you said it much better!
Thank you!
?
By “so many” Fedfans, you mean all 2 of them? 😉
Nats, I want Dolgopolov to win against Nadal because he’s pretty much my favourite player. (If he plays against Federer, I will be cheering for Dolgo). However, I don’t think Federer has much to fear from Nadal on HC anymore. If they meet, Nadal of course has a chance to win. But I think Roger has exorcised the mental demons that plagued him for years against Rafa, and if anything it’s now Nadal who fears Federer (at least off clay). Early on in the USO Rafa said he’d rather not play Roger, something he said earlier in the season as well.
haha.. that statement meant nothing. Nadal has been saying the same about all his big rivals for the last decade. He didn’t mean to say he is scared to play Fed but rather meant to say he obviously prefers to play against easier players. So, it is typical Rafa. I don’t think he is afraid or something.
Fed’s losses were NOT only about mental issues but also about being outmatched in terms of shot-making and patterns of play. If Fed starts to play near his best and Rafa’s forehand is not consistent, I would Adv Fed. But, if Rafa’s forehand is near its best, Rafa will be controlling a lot of the rallies.
Well, I remember many comments in the past where Rafa and (more) Tony expressed confidence before playing Federer. Objectively, I think Nadal preferred to play Roger over some other top players in the past.
However, all of that was before Roger’s new racquet/bigger serve/BH; and before the demon-shattering win in the AO final. I haven’t seen anything this year to suggest that Nadal can hang with Fed playing near his best on a HC. Now, if the Rafa of the FO final suddenly shows up, that’s a different story. But there’s no evidence to suggest that will happen.
Joe, let’s not make it sound as if Fed bulldozed over him in the AO final! He BARELY won and was down 1-3 in set 5. We don’t even know if Rafa’s inability to shift to a higher gear in thr 5th set was due to his long semi.
Rog attacked Rafa’s ROS so much early in the year and since then, Rafa has significatly improved his second serve so won’t be easy to attack now. To me that was the biggest difference federer made.
Nadal’s forehand whenever he was hitting it with depth was still controlling the tempo of so many rallies in AO. He needs to ensure his forehand is on fire and he has to avoid some ‘old habits’ which I have talked about many times.
Regarding his approach, no, I have not seen any change. He jas never expressed the confidence you are referring to. He has always praised Federer and has said he needs to play his best to have his chances. Rafa saying he’d rather about Fed, Djo etc is nothing. I am sure Fed would alao want to avoid Rafa but has never said it. It is just two players with different ways of handlinf the press.
vr,
Thanks for a great response! I think you were spot on! This revisionist history is really kind of annoying to read. You made some great points about the AO final that should be kept in mind. To read some comments here, one would think Fed just rolled over Rafa in that final.
I also think it’s important to remember that the AO court was playing extremely fast this year. I remember because the conspiracy theorists were convinced that this was done expressly to ensure Fed victory. But Rafa more than held his own.
The USO courts are playing slow according to the ESPN commies. They say tha benefits Rafa.
Considering how Rafa has dominated in the H2H with Fed, I don’t think he had to fear him. Rafa is just honest when he talks about preferring to play someone else. He’s said the same about playing Novak!
VR, I may be wrong about past comments; I can’t provide any links. But as I saw the AO final, Fed dominated when he played well, and it’s only when his level dropped that Rafa was able to stay close. Subsequent matches on slower HCs haven’t helped Nadal. At the moment, the 4 match win streak says more than the overall H2H, which is heavily skewed by clay in any case.
NNY, I don’t mean to annoy you. I just think you’re very easily annoyed.
NNY,
Thanks for adding that the AO courts were playing faster. It is not as simple as Fed fans think it is. There are not going to be any surprises either. Rafa will come what is going to come at him and he will be ready if they meet. The main issue is not Fed but Rafa finding his best form.
It is going to be very close but both have some work to do.
I think Delpo is going to edge out Thiem and he will be a threat as well.
Joe,
I am a staunch fan of Rafa but I am also an analyst of the game. I can often talk about how matches play out while keeping my Rafa bias aside.
In the AO final, Fed came out dominating and Rafa was not doing great. He was holding his serve but I was concerned. I knew he was not getting enough depth on his forehand and it is a matter of time before he gets dominated by this red hot Fed. I kept saying this to my wife who was sitting next to me and in no time did Rafa lose his serve and the set eventually.
In set 2, Rafa improved right away. He flattened out his backhand more and the depth of his forehand shots improved. He was dictating so many more points and had Fed moving from side to side. Fed’s first serve went AWOL for a while and he was getting bossed around on his second serves (winning less than 50%).
Did fed make more UE in set 2? Yes! He made more errors because: (i). Rafa pressed harder and (ii). He couldn’t sustain the high risk strategy and that is pretty normal against a great defender like Rafa.
In set 3, Fed was CRUSHING returns, hitting so cleanly off both wings and denying Rafa any opportunities with great first serves.
To cut it short, Sets 4 & 5, I observed that whenever Rafa was getting good length on his forehand, he was getting neutral balls which he could attack and control the points. What he got punished for was landing CC forehands short (in or around the service box) in an attempt go simply get them high to Fed’s backhand. In the past, these would often result in rather tentative backhand responses from Fed but that time Fed was better able to step in and generate more pace. This was one of the ‘bad habits’ Rafa had in the HC matches against Fed this year. He was so much used to these patterns and reverted to them often. If you notice, there were patches where he was getting good depth AND even if he was landing his forehand short, he was getting them really high (NOT an easy thing to do on a consistent basis).
Another bad habit in Indian wells was serving too much to Fed’s backhand and paying the price. Some lessons were learnt in Miami but a bad forehand and low confidence didn’t allow him to create opportunities.
I do think ROS has made the biggest difference rather than the backhand in the rallies. Rafa will be able to handle that aspect much better now but he won’t win unless his forehand is sizzling hot!
I love how people actually GET OVER disagreements here even though they support different players…
Talk Tennis is cancer to read.
Benny, Joe has been predicting Rafa losing to this and that player ever since early this season, even on clay, and that’s what I meant.
Shapo lost -_- I don’t like PCB at all.
I thought PCB played such smart tennis. With the crowd on Shapo’s side, he just kept playing really good tennis while Shapo made far too many errors. It’s a whole different thing to play in a slam.
Too much hype can be a bad thing. Now Shapo has to put in the hard work and improve. He’s got a lot of natural talent but that isn’t enough.
He played well but I was rooting for Shapo haha. Want to see some #NewGen wrecking but 4R isn’t too bad of a run.
Shapo had way too many opportunities he didn’t take.
Shapo did well to get as far as he did. PCB played a very smart match and out steadied him in the TB’s, which really were not close. Remember Shapo had to come through qualies so he’s got a lot of matches under his belt in a very short time. I like what I’ve seen of him so far. Great attitude. Over the next few years we’ll see what he’s really made of.
Really like Shapo’s maturity and attitude during interviews and matches.
I agree about seeing what Shap’s made of in the next few years.
Very true. PCB was a class act at the end and played super smart tennis. Much respect for the wily Spaniard. Hopefully Shapovalov can continue playing at this level and keep improving.
This Shapo kid, I went off him when he stunned Rafa in Montreal. How dare he? He will only get back into my good graces when he remembers his place and loses to Rafa, henceforth.
I’m watching him……….
Yes! How dare he beat Rafa! That was not okay! Next time he needs to lose!
?
RITB 3.0,
That’s not fair.
Stanley, I’m never fair where Rafa is concerned. All regular Tenngranders know that……………
Right on! Preach it!
?
After yesterday, I am suffering US Open withdrawal… Anyone here who has never had the chance to attend the US Open, I would highly recommend it. I honestly had one of the best days of my life. I got to see the two greatest male tennis players of all-time (imo) play in the biggest tennis stadium in the world, and they both won! I also got to see Del Po on Grandstand (the overall best venue on the Open, imo). And to cap it all off, when 3/4 of Ashe emptied out after the Fed match because it was so late, I was able to move down to courtside seats for Keys-Vesnina. It is seriously mind blowing to be that close to the court where so many great players have won titles. I was like a star-struck little kid, freaking out about the fact that I could practically reach down and touch the court that Rafa and Fed were both standing on earlier in the evening. Plus, the Keys match was awesome, and the crowd being allowed to move down to the courtside rich-people seats really allowed the crowd to spur on Madison to get the win. It was definitely the best sporting moment I’ve ever experienced. Plus, Lindsay Davenport was sitting like 10 feet to my right haha. Alright, enough gushing. I just don’t have anyone else to share my feelings about yesterday with because none of my friends care about tennis. But all of you do! So anyone who will ever have an opportunity to attend the US Open- do it! You will not regret it…
That’s awesome bro. Nothing beats watching the greatest players live. And I agree about grandstand. My favorite court to watch at is the old Louis Armstrong but they took it down and made a new one I guess. Grandstand is probably a great atmosphere. Outside courts have the greatest atmosphere and Arthur Ashe is just surreal to watch from.
For the Rafans- one of the more exciting moments of the night for me was when Rafa finally broke in that epically long game in the second set. Seeing him do one of his trademark Rafa celebrations, and how the crowd reacted with him, it was like a religious experience haha. The energy coming from Rafa and the crowd when he got the break was so palpable. I probably jumped 10 feet out of my chair when he got the break haha! I definitely had some similar moments in the Fed match, feeling the energy so strongly. But Fed’s celebrations are more tame, like a “c’mon” or that Swiss-German word he yells that I don’t know what it is. With Rafa, especially since he had struggled leading up that break, his celebration was so energetic and meaningful… And I thought of all of you Rafans at that moment. 🙂
We thought of you too, Kevin! So happy that you had a great, great experience your first time at Ashe! An exciting Rafa match, then seeing Fed at his best. What could be better?
wow so you got to see both Rafa and Rog! lucky you! I am sure it was INCREDIBLE 🙂