U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

They took interesting paths to get there, but Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka have set up an intriguing final matchup at the U.S. Open. In six previous Grand Slam showdowns heading into Sunday, Djokovic and Wawrinka have played four five-setters.

Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 24th time in their careers when they battle for the U.S. Open title on Sunday afternoon.

Although Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 19-4, this has to be considered one of the most entertaining matchups in tennis over the past four years. Dating back to the 2013 Australian Open, they have faced each other five times in Grand Slams and four have required fifth sets. The two veterans split a pair of thrillers at the 2013 and 2014 Australian Opens, Djokovic prevailed 6-4 in the fifth in the 2013 U.S. Open semis, and he cruised 6-0 in the fifth last year Down Under before Wawrinka won the 2015 French Open via a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 decision in the final.

Speaking of finals, the third-ranked Swiss is an unbelievable 10-0 in his last 10 matches with a title at stake.

“He’s a big-match player,” Djokovic said of Wawrinka. “He loves to play [on] the big stage against big players, because that’s when he elevates his level of performance; just gets much better. I think he was very close to [losing in the third round] in this tournament and he was struggling with his form, but the last couple of matches he’s (been) getting in that shape that is winning him big matches. I lost to him in (the) finals of French Open and I lost to him in (the) quarterfinals of Australia when he won, as well.”

Wawrinka’s appearance in this final did not seem likely when he lost five of his last 10 matches prior to arriving in New York. Moreover, as Djokovic indicated, the No. 3 seed needed to save a match point against Daniel Evans in the last 32 before surviving 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(6), 7-6(8), 6-2. He has also defeated Fernando Verdasco, Alessandro Giannessi, Illya Marchenko, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Kei Nishikori.
Wawrinka signs
Although Wawrinka avoided five-setters in the rest of his matches, no one has enjoyed an easier time in Flushing Meadows than Djokovic. The Serb has benefited from a walkover (from Jiri Vesely) and two retirements (by Mikhail Youzhny and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga) in addition to mostly routine victories over Jerzy Janowicz, Kyle Edmund, and Gael Monfils. As such, the jury is still out on Djokovic’s form in the wake of a Wimbledon setback against Sam Querrey and a Rio Olympics loss to Del Potro. The world No. 1 was also nowhere near his best against Monfils on Friday, but the Frenchman turned in a somewhat bizarre performance to cost himself a chance for an upset.

Djokovic warming up for his match

Still, Wawrinka is well aware of what Djokovic is capable of bringing to the table.

“To play Novak it’s always really challenging,” he assured. “We [have] some many big memories together, especially in Grand Slams, so it’s going to be an exctiting match. The secret is simple: I have to play my best tennis; my best game. I have enough confidence in myself that when I play my best level I can beat him. Hopefully I can bring that Sunday. But it’s the biggest challenge; when you play Novak, the No. 1 player in the final of Grand Slam, it’s the biggest challenge you can have.”

It is also true that Djokovic is vulnerable right now, but at the same time his fortuitous trek through the draw is just what the doctor ordered for a player who had been struggling just a bit physically prior to the tournament. Even though the 12-time major champion showed additional signs of physical issues against Monfils, he is more rested than Wawrinka and should be able to put forth his best showing of the fortnight when it matters most.

Pick: Djokovic in 5

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39 Comments on U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

    • I can’t argue with that! However, Novak had no control over what happened. I actually think the lack of match play hurt him.

      I just want to see other players win in the men’s game. Murray and Stan each have one. That’s good for the game.

      Novak still won two slams, the career slam and four in a row. But it’s good to see other guys in the men’s game step up.

      • Yup true that NNY.

        Honestly the match happened as I was expecting. Stan started to improve and play well enough to create more doubts in Djoko’s mind. The Serb’s serve was a liability and he buckled under pressure. He was poor on break points.

        It took time for Stan to realize he needs the body serve. He won so many big pts due to his body serves. Novak started reading them later in the fourth but it was too late.

        I repeat my assessment of Djokovic’s game as compared to Federer and Nadal: The serbian lacks firepower (relatively) in his baseline game. he can be pretty aggressive with baseline positioning but lacks firepower. Nadal and Fed have their huge forehands so they are able to change the tempo of rallies with one shot sometimes, esp Rafa because of his spin. Stan is able to impose his game on Novak and he forces him to defend and counterpunch. Rafa is able to push stan back by virtue of heavy forehands . When Stan is totally on his game, may be he is the slight favourite against Djoko unless it is grass or a quick indoor court. Novak is obv more reliable and consistent and that we can’t take from him.

  1. Have to applaud Stan.

    Nole is a genuinely good sport. He’ll not be too wounded from this loss.

    Happy for Stan and Nole makes me proud. ??

      • Saying if you aren’t a diehard Djoker fan or a diehard Wawa fan, just a fan of tennis, I just cant fathom rooting for Wawa over Nole. Obviously its just my opinion and others feel differently, just can’t figure it out personally.

        Then again, this is coming from a diehard Nole fan who’s a bit, shall I say, upset at the moment. Ha

  2. The Stanimal only shows up once per season but when he does he cannot be beaten. Coming into the USO I never dreamed he could do it after this lousy season. He is a baller. 3-0 in GS finals. No way Nole deserved this title after 3 retirements.

    • Same I said he would win the U.S. Open at the end of last year because I thought he would win a different slam again and probably not Wimbledon so I said he would win U.S. open on this page posted on here at the end of last year called “burning questions for ATP tour 2016” or something like that. But then when this tourney rolled around he had had such an awful year I completely forgot I predicted that and picked him to lose fourth round. Of course I picked him to win RG and make semis at Wimbledon but I didn’t go with my usual biased pick here and he won. Still what really matters is he won it. So happy for the Stanimal. Awesome performance. He and fed are the most fun players to watch imo. Monfils and vintage Rafa are also of course super entertaining to watch along with Dustin brown and Marcus Willis lol.

  3. Congrats Stan. Well played . Gutsy and came from behind and overcame all distractions from other side of the net.

    If once a year is on , is it Wimby next year ? I sure hope so.

    • Same. I would love to see him complete career grand slam. That would be epic. I wonder if anyone has ever gotten career grand slam by winning one different slam a year for four years. It would be really tough for him to win Wimby as that’s his least successful slam by far and least successful surface even before his breakthrough. It would be funny if he got the career GS before Murray by winning all four finals he’s played when Murray has played a bunch and has two. He’s already closer to career grand slam than Murray in fact. And has same amount of slams. #allezstan

      • I don’t think Murray will get the career slam. At least not with Djokovic playing in a good level.. and some ”new” serious candidates to win a GS like Thiem, Raonic or even Delpo

  4. Ok I saw the score now. Congrats to Stan! So 3 for 3. Djoko played below his normal level but fought hard. Congrats to both.

    I think Djoko reaching the final will help him to secure his YE no.1

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