U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

They took interesting paths to get there, but Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka have set up an intriguing final matchup at the U.S. Open. In six previous Grand Slam showdowns heading into Sunday, Djokovic and Wawrinka have played four five-setters.

Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 24th time in their careers when they battle for the U.S. Open title on Sunday afternoon.

Although Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 19-4, this has to be considered one of the most entertaining matchups in tennis over the past four years. Dating back to the 2013 Australian Open, they have faced each other five times in Grand Slams and four have required fifth sets. The two veterans split a pair of thrillers at the 2013 and 2014 Australian Opens, Djokovic prevailed 6-4 in the fifth in the 2013 U.S. Open semis, and he cruised 6-0 in the fifth last year Down Under before Wawrinka won the 2015 French Open via a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 decision in the final.

Speaking of finals, the third-ranked Swiss is an unbelievable 10-0 in his last 10 matches with a title at stake.

“He’s a big-match player,” Djokovic said of Wawrinka. “He loves to play [on] the big stage against big players, because that’s when he elevates his level of performance; just gets much better. I think he was very close to [losing in the third round] in this tournament and he was struggling with his form, but the last couple of matches he’s (been) getting in that shape that is winning him big matches. I lost to him in (the) finals of French Open and I lost to him in (the) quarterfinals of Australia when he won, as well.”

Wawrinka’s appearance in this final did not seem likely when he lost five of his last 10 matches prior to arriving in New York. Moreover, as Djokovic indicated, the No. 3 seed needed to save a match point against Daniel Evans in the last 32 before surviving 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(6), 7-6(8), 6-2. He has also defeated Fernando Verdasco, Alessandro Giannessi, Illya Marchenko, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Kei Nishikori.
Wawrinka signs
Although Wawrinka avoided five-setters in the rest of his matches, no one has enjoyed an easier time in Flushing Meadows than Djokovic. The Serb has benefited from a walkover (from Jiri Vesely) and two retirements (by Mikhail Youzhny and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga) in addition to mostly routine victories over Jerzy Janowicz, Kyle Edmund, and Gael Monfils. As such, the jury is still out on Djokovic’s form in the wake of a Wimbledon setback against Sam Querrey and a Rio Olympics loss to Del Potro. The world No. 1 was also nowhere near his best against Monfils on Friday, but the Frenchman turned in a somewhat bizarre performance to cost himself a chance for an upset.

Djokovic warming up for his match

Still, Wawrinka is well aware of what Djokovic is capable of bringing to the table.

“To play Novak it’s always really challenging,” he assured. “We [have] some many big memories together, especially in Grand Slams, so it’s going to be an exctiting match. The secret is simple: I have to play my best tennis; my best game. I have enough confidence in myself that when I play my best level I can beat him. Hopefully I can bring that Sunday. But it’s the biggest challenge; when you play Novak, the No. 1 player in the final of Grand Slam, it’s the biggest challenge you can have.”

It is also true that Djokovic is vulnerable right now, but at the same time his fortuitous trek through the draw is just what the doctor ordered for a player who had been struggling just a bit physically prior to the tournament. Even though the 12-time major champion showed additional signs of physical issues against Monfils, he is more rested than Wawrinka and should be able to put forth his best showing of the fortnight when it matters most.

Pick: Djokovic in 5

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44 Comments on U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

  1. Brutal conditions favour Stan. Plus he wont be fooled by Nole’s theatrics. It is hard to discern when he is really hurt. Stan did not take too kindly to Rafa’s off court medical time out in Melbourne. He is a bit paranoid and will expect Nole to try mess with his head.

  2. Nobody can beat Stan when he’s in this kind of form. Djokovic knows if he plays at a high level he can beat anyone in GF finals. That’s not the case against Stan so Djokovic is more vulnerable psychologically than usual.

    Stan in 4 or 5

    • Except on clay at FO against a top form Rafa.

      Top form Rafa at FO >> top form Djoko.

      And on grass at Wimbledon:

      Top form Fed > top form Djoko

  3. I’ll go for Nole in 4. Would also like it to go to five but I doubt it…

    Would love to see a high level tennis and interesting match. The womens final was exciting except that inexperienced poker-face Pliskova choked. Great achievement for Kerber this year though…i was really getting tired of Serena out forcing them all…

    Get ready for Nole’s shirt ripping and Stan finger pointing at his head ?

  4. Djokovic also hasn’t been tested yet so we don’t know where he is at given his poor form coming into the tournament. We know Stan is playing at the highest level because he’s come through the toughest part of the draw. Murray, Nishikori, del Potro were all in top form.

    Another reason Stan will most likely win this.

    • He didnt play Murray, he played a Delpo that had finally hit a wall and wasn’t nearly the same player he was over the last couple months, and he played a Nishikori who also just couldn’t fight through the tough conditions and weltered in the heat.

  5. Form-lines of recent matches suggest Stan will win.

    del Potro beat Djokovic
    Wawrinka beat del Potro (quite easily)
    Murray beat del Potro
    Nishikori beat Murray
    Wawrinka beat Nishikori

    • well that doesn’t really logically follow does it?
      the quicker surface and lower bounce doesn’t really suit stan as he doesn’t have the time he needs to set up his shots. the surface at rg with its high bounce is much better for him.
      but the biggest factor is nole’s problems with serve which are surely injury related and which seem to be affecting his whole game and dragging him down to an unfathomably bad level.
      never been a better time to play nole…

  6. Stan did force Djoko to go the limit the last time they played here in 2013 SF; the Djoko then was playing much better than he is playing now so there’s hope for Stan.

      • just had a thought!! given nole’s problems he is going to have multiple time outs isn’t he with the trainer?? will stan repeat his ao outbursts trying to get the crowd going?
        i am assuming they will be for him mostly as will be pro fed transfering their love to stan.
        could get ugly.
        if that does happen nole had better bl***y well win and shut them up.

  7. Stan has all the ability to do miracles. If he is in peak, he can do miracles. But being title on the door head, even though djoko had struggles at times, It is not wise to read off Djoko, if we are betting.

    • No it’s not that simple. Not with Novak on the other side of the net. Even Novak not at his best is tough to take out at a slam. I don’t think we are going to see what happened at Wimbledon be repeated any time soon.

      Stan is not playing his best right now. He’s been up and down. Initially Nishi was getting the better of him in their match. You may forget that the second set was very tight. Stan did raise his level of play and pulled out the second set. Nishi wouldn’t go away, but in the end fatigue from his previous five set battle to take out Murray finally did him in.

      Don’t think for a minute that Novak doesn’t want to win this.

      Stan said he will have to play his best to beat Novak. He is right. I certainly think he’s got a chance here, but it is not nearly as simple as you are trying to make it.

      • Stan has NOT been playing his best tennis. He has, however, been improving his level in his last two matches. He was good against Kei.

        If the weather is going to be hot and humid again, Stan’s chances improve a bit more.

        The court surface definitely favours Djokovic more but it won’t limit Stan from playing his best if he is ready. Stan has the belief but I am not sure where his level will be. We will have to wait and see.

      • For me, it is that simple because I believe that when Stan is motivated he’s the number one player in the world. Wawrinka toyed with Djokovic at the French Open and there’s a strong chance he’ll the same again today. Djokovic fears Wawrinka more than any other player because he knows even if he brings his A game it still might not be good enough against Wawrinka.

        • oh please that is really pushing it! nole’s best is better than stan’s best and that is why he has 12 slams and stan has 2. one of those 2 was also against an injured opponent.

          • Amy,

            I have to agree with you. I don’t see how anyone can say stan’s best beats novak’s best. Novak has been the #1 player and dominant player for the last two years. That is no accident. He just completed the career slam and also winning four slams in a row. Something that neither Rafa or Fed were able to do.

            Stan has done well in the last two years to finally realize his potential with the help of Magnus Norman. But he is not in the same league with Novak. There is no comparison when you look at their careers.

            Stan has shown that he had the game to challenge Novak. There is no question about that. But Stan has to play the match of his life to beat Novak at the 2015 RG. He had not played at that level this year.

            It is true that his other slam win at the 2014 AO was against a Rafa who was severely hampered by a back injury.

  8. Djoker in four
    WaWa beat down an injured and battered Kei. Nishikori littered the floor with the 45 unforced errors in that match. tons of free points. Novak is rested, motivated and tuned up for a battle with Stanimal. Novak on top in four to five.

  9. One thing that Stan did pretty well in his QF and SF was to make them a physical battle and took out the legs of Delpo and Kei.

    If he can do something similar today, Nole’s niggles may flare up and hamper him.

  10. Perhaps not enough time since the Monfils/Djokovic match has passed. That was so bad. Please lord, help it not be a flop.

    Remembering back to FO 2015, I can now see the humor and appreciate Stan because Nole has his FO. It’s nice to cheer for both at the moment. Always hope for Stanimal and Nole to be good one.

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