Toronto final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

A win by Stefanos Tsitsipas on Sunday would make for one of the all-time great tournament runs in ATP Tour history.

But after becoming the youngest player in history to beat four top-10 players at a single event, it only gets tougher for the Greek. He has taken out the world No. 8 (Dominic Thiem), the world No. 10 (Novak Djokovic), the world No. 3 (Alexander Zverev), and the world No. 6 (Kevin Anderson). Next up for Tsitsipas in the Rogers Cup final is world No. 1 Rafael Nadal.

And while his first four upsets came as a 19-year-old, a fifth would come as a 20-year-old. Yes, Tsitsipas is celebrating his 20th birthday on Sunday in Toronto.

It has been a perfect birthday week so far. The world No. 27 opened with a defeat of Damir Dzumhur, reeled off victories over Thiem, Djokovic, and Zverev, and then saved three match points to outlast Anderson 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(7) in Saturday’s first semifinal. Tsitsipas is now 30-18 for his breakout 2018 campaign, having previously won only four career main-tour matches going into this season.

“Playing in a Masters 1000 final is the best thing that can happen on your birthday,” Tsitsipas assured. “I couldn’t achieve anything better in one tournament, beating all those high-ranked players (and) playing amazing tennis.”

Additional good news for the underdog is that his second foray into this head-to-head matchup is not coming on clay. Their only previous encounter came this spring in the Barcelona title match, with Nadal rolling 6-2, 6-1.

Still, it’s not like Tsitsipas is catching Nadal at a particularly good time. The Spaniard is 21-1 in his last 22 matches (39-3 overall this year), building on a typically dominant clay-court swing with a fine showing on grass (Wimbledon semifinals) and perfection thus far on summer hard courts. Nadal booked his spot in championship Sunday with victories at the expense of Benoit Paire, Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic, and Karen Khachanov, surrendering just one set to Cilic along the way.

Tsitsipas is most likely correct in that he can’t achieve anything better in one tournament. He would with another win on Sunday, but to say that is easier said than done with Nadal on the other side of the net would be a gross understatement. This is the biggest match of the youngster’s career by far and he will be playing it while depleted in both the physical and mental departments. Moreover, as good as his one-handed backhand is, it may break down amidst the constant barrage of Nadal’s heavy topspin forehand.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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24 Comments on Toronto final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Rafa hasn’t come to Toronto in ten years?!! Wow, that’s a long time! It makes this win, this title so special for Rafa! I hope we will be seeing him in Toronto in two years time.

    Rafa is as charming as ever, and getting better and better with his speeches in English. I’m glad we are having another charming (and young) player in Tsitsipas, who will take over from Fedal (and the big four) in future.

  2. This win feels so good for Rafa, as he really came through a tough draw (two former USO champions) and then the red hot youngster who had already beaten 4 top ten players to reach the final.

    It reminds me of Rafa’s tough draw at Beijing last year and how he came through that one too and beating Kyrgios in the final in two easy sets. Tsitsipas did well to make the second set more competitive; he’s unfortunate to meet Rafa twice in finals, when Rafa usually play(ed) well in finals.

  3. Not bad for a 19 year old.
    This final was more or less a foregone conclusion, so Ive been watching the golf instead.
    I liked the bit at the end where Rafa rushed to his phone to check how Tiger was doing.

  4. Considering how well he did here and the ranking points he amassed, should he even be going to Cincinnati. He does not like the balls or the courts there, has a brutal draw and definitely does not want to strain his body. I hope he gets a few matches and does not get involed in gruelling matches.

  5. Hey hey hey Nny!!….Your darling won!!Wooohoooo!!…Yesss!!…R U HAPPY???And Congrats to ALL RAFANS!!U GUYS R AWESOME!!..Btw,Hope Rafa will lose early in Cincy…Get some rest & make a right preparation for USO!…And please,please,please..hope he will get a nice draw at USO too!…And please send Tsitsi to Roger’s quarter this time God!Hahahaha…Just kidding Rogfans!…

    Vamos Rafa!!…Love u!!

    • MA,

      I am very happy! Just seeing Rafa’s reaction was so wonderful! He was pumped! I really don’t want to se him slugging it out in Cincy next week. I hope he doesn’t have to kill himself with that ugly draw. Maybe it’s better if he loses early there. He got what he needed out of Toronto. I hope he gets a good draw at the USO.

      • Heheheh…Yeah Nny!!…It’s okay he did it in 2013 coz he’s wayyyy younger,but..at 32???A’ah!!….Nope!…

        I hope Carlos or his team will talk some sense into him that USO much more important than Cincy!

          • Yesss!!…Double great news for today!!Yeehaaa!!…Tho,he will ruin a couple of precious point in my Bracket!…But,,,hey!…For Rafa’s sake LOLOLOLOL!!!

            Now,we can follow Cincy without stress for a week!!Uhhh!!…Heaven!!…Thank u Ricky for telling us!!

          • Now!When i think of it…imagine Rafa got 2 weeks break & all his closest/main rivals slug it out in Cincy this week & only got 1 week rest compared to Rafa….And Rafa will go to USO full of confidence after huge success at Toronto!…OH WOW!!!!THIS IS THE MOST PERFECT USO PREPARATION EVER FOR RAFA!!…And for our heart & mind too!!..Yesss!!WOOOHOOO!!

            Hopefully,he will have another great run at USO this year!…NY,,, HERE WE COME!!

        • Yup, according to the Cincy website Rafa has regretfully withdrawn from Cincy, citing “personal reasons” which he translated as wanting to stay healthy. At times Rafa shows signs of growing up. A bit sad, although not as sad as Rafa injuring himself right before the USO!

  6. Savvy veteran GOAT move. Hopefully he skips the WTF exho to rest for AO next year too.

    “I am very sorry to announce that I won’t be playing in Cincinnati this year,” Nadal posted on social media on Monday.

    “No other reason than personally taking care of my body and trying to keep as healthy as I feel now.”

    Scoot was one tournament too soon. Cincy? Maybe Djokovic. Perhaps Zverev.

    #DefinitelyNotRafa

  7. So Rafa pulled out of Cincy. I will miss seeing him play, but I totally understand after this tough tournament and that horrible draw he got. I have to accept that at 32 he has to pull back with his schedule.

    At least the tennis channel had the decency of showing the trophy ceremony. The crowd sang Happy Birthday to Tsitsipas. That was lovely. Great speeches from both Stefanos and Rafa. At the end of his speech Rafa said he hoped to see you in two years to the crowd. That is when I get nervous. He also mentioned that he could not be here for so many years because of his injuries.

    We need to remember the toll that has been taken on Rafa with all that he went through. I am so glad that he won this title!

    • Yes, the crowd singing Happy Birthday to Stephanos was great. Best of all was the very sweet smile on Rafa’s face while he listened to it.

      • Yes! I meant to mention it! Rafa loved it! That was something we all should have gotten to see. Shame on ESPN for not showing it.

  8. This will probably be the first time ever that Rafa finishes 2 consecutive year as world No.1. If he is careful with his scheduling going forward, he could end a few more years as the top guy

    • Yes, I’ve no doubt that as long as Rafa stays healthy and reduces his workload, continues to play aggressive tennis, he is hard to beat. I think he can realistically end as year end no.1 for this year and even next year.

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