Sometime (probably? maybe? no?) the Big 3 of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer will vacate the throne of men’s tennis. Perhaps it will be temporary at first. One of the challengers might win a Grand Slam before Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer restore order to the proceedings. Eventually Father Time will not lose and the passing of the torch will be permanent, but right now that looks like it will be later rather than sooner.
The Big 3 have split the last 13 slam titles. Not since Stan Wawrinka at the 2016 U.S. Open has anyone else managed to lift one of the four biggest trophies in tennis. That was Wawrinka’s third major triumph; there has not been a first-time champion since Marin Cilic at the 2014 U.S. Open.
Who will be next? Let’s take a look a the contenders.
Dominic Thiem
Thiem came within one set of accomplishing the feat earlier this month, but Djokovic staged a comeback to beat Thiem 6-4, 4-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the Australian Open final. The fourth-ranked Austrian has been to a pair of French Open finals, as well, (lost to Nadal on both occasions) so he is clearly the one knocking loudest on the door.
The good news for Thiem is that the next major on the schedule is the French Open on his preferred clay-court surface. Of course, the bad news is that Nadal remains the King of Clay. The second-ranked Spaniard has emerged victorious at Roland Garros 12 times, including three in a row. Betting sites in Indiana you can legally bet with have Nadal as an overwhelming -120 favorite this year, while Thiem and Djokovic are both +300 second choices.
Daniil Medvedev
The recent AO was the second consecutive major in which an underdog outsider came within one set of upsetting a Big 3 fore in the final. First it was Medvedev, who pushed Nadal to five sets at the 2019 U.S. Open before falling 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4. That was part of an unbelievable streak in which the Russian advanced to six consecutive finals, winning three—including the Cincinnati Masters.
Medvedev is not as adept on clay and grass, so his recent fourth-round loss to Wawrinka at Melbourne Park was a big opportunity wasted. The world No. 5 is +2200 on the red clay of Paris, +1400 on the grass of the All-England Club, and +1000 to go one step further this time around in NYC.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas, Medvedev, and Thiem have taken turns making their claim to being the likeliest next first-time GSC. Early last year it was Tsitsipas who stunned Federer at the Aussie Open and also picked up victories at smaller tournaments over Djokovic and Nadal. Medvedev came close at the U.S. Open, Tsitsipas triumphed at the Nitto ATP Finals trophy this past November (beat Thiem in the final), and then Thiem excelled in Melbourne.
Because he is plenty capable on all surfaces, Tsitsipas has a realistic chance at any slam in which he participates. The sixth-ranked Greek is +1800 to prevail at RG (tied with Federer), +1400 at Wimbledon, and +1400 to lift the trophy in NYC.
Alexander Zverev
The one knock on Zverev over the past few seasons is that he has underwhelmed at slams. The seventh-ranked German is a three-time champion at the Masters 1000 level and he has captured 11 titles overall, but he has not yet reached a major final. On the bright side, Zverev is a two-time French Open quarterfinalist and he enjoyed a breakthrough of sorts in Melbourne with a semifinal showing (lost to Thiem in four tight sets).
The 22-year-old +2000 to win the French Open, +2500 to win Wimbledon, and +1600 to win the U.S. Open.
Nick Kyrgios
Kyrgios is nowhere near the previous four guys on this list—certainly not in terms of consistency. However, his natural talent is right there if not even more impressive than that of Thiem, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, and Zverev. And, hey, for the purpose of this discussion all it takes is one. If the 20th-ranked Australian gets hot at the right time, he is more than capable of bagging a Grand Slam title.
Wimbledon, where Kyrgios once upset Nadal to touch off a bitter rivalry, is his arguably his best chance even though he has longer odds (+3300) than he does at the U.S. Open (+2800). The 24-year-old is +4000 at Roland Garros.
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thoughts?
Kyrgios’ major problem is he can’t stay fit through 7 bo5 matches.
Like most who have voted so far, I think Thiem has been the most impressive candidate. He should be at his competitive peak now and he’s very tough and strong. Of course his problem is he’s best on clay and, well, so is the King. If Rafa is anywhere near the top of his game, Thiem can forget RG for another year or two. Grass is not Thiem’s surface as yet, but the USO should be. He was sick during the USO last year so went out early but he should have his chances this year.
Tsitsi, AZ and Med are all capable of making a run but they’re still unpredictable and vulnerable to upsets, mental problems, injuries, etc.
Of course there’s other great young prospects out there but they’re all still a year or three away imo.
I’ll take Thiem // Kyrgios to be the first two out of those four. probably in that sequence too!
I know ATP and WTA are quite different, but…
has anyone noticed a parallel between Thiem and Simona Halep?
Simona lost 3 slam finals before finally winning one. The first two were RG, the last was the Australian Open. The same year Halep lost that AO final, she went on to win RG.
Will Thiem do the same this year?
I sincerely hope so.
He deserves a Grand Slam while the Big Three are still playing and RG is almost like his best chance to achieve that dream, but Rafa is unbeatable on the clay of Paris.
I wish Thiem well.
I have a feeling about RG this year,Nadal might not win .