A pair of marquee semifinal matchups are on Saturday’s schedule at the Shanghai Masters. Roger Federer is going up against Juan Martin Del Potro, while Rafael Nadal is facing Marin Cilic. Del Potro, however, may be dealing with another wrist injury.
(16) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (2) Roger Federer
Federer and Del Potro will be squaring off for the 23rd time in their careers and for the third time this season when they clash in the semifinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 16-6 in Federer’s favor, but Del Potro recently prevailed 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(8), 6-4 in the U.S. Open quarters. Federer had previously won three in a row at the Argentine’s expense, including via a 6-3, 6-4 decision at the Miami Open this spring.
Although the 36-year-old Swiss may not be in quite the same form that carried him to the Australian Open title and back-to-back trophies in Indian Wells and Miami, he is still flying high at No. 2 in the world and in distant contention for the year-end top ranking. Federer has advanced this week with straight-set defeats of Diego Schwartzman, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Richard Gasquet. The script seems to be flipped from when these two competitors collided a couple of months ago in New York, where Federer was dealing with a back injury. Now it is Del Potro who is a question mark, as he suffered a fall against Viktor Troicki on Friday and may have re-injured his left wrist. The 16th seed could be running on fumes, anyway, because he required three tough sets to get past both Troicki and Alexander Zverev. All signs point to Federer avenging his U.S. Open loss to Del Potro.
Pick: Federer in 2
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(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (4) Marin Cilic
Are we in line for a Nadal vs. Federer showdown, after it was derailed by Del Potro at Flushing Meadows? It’s possible, but Nadal may have an especially tough one on his hands against Cilic. The fifth-ranked Croat, who will climb to a new career-high mark of No. 4 next week, is 39-16 this season with a runner-up performance at Wimbledon. He is 8-1 since the U.S. Open, highlighted by a semifinal showing last week in Tokyo preceding straight-set wins in Shanghai over Kyle Edmund, Steve Johnson, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
Cilic is a mediocre 1-4 lifetime against Nadal heading into Saturday’s contest, but his lone victory came during the Asian swing (albeit way back in 2009, when he cruised 6-1, 6-3 in Beijing). Of course, this is not the same Nadal as the one who limped down the stretch of the 2009 campaign. The top-ranked Spaniard is 15-0 in his last 15 matches, a stretch that includes titles at the U.S. Open and in Beijing. Two quick outings against Jared Donaldson and Fabio Fognini were just what the doctor orderer earlier this week, but Nadal needed two hours and 32 minutes to scrape past Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3 on Friday. When playing well, as he is now, Cilic has the game that can trouble Nadal–serve huge and punish any short balls with flat groundstrokes. On a fast surface against an opponent who may be fatigued, the underdog may be able to execute that plan to perfection.
Pick: Cilic in 3
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