First-round competition at the Shanghai Masters will wrap up on Thursday, when Alexei Popyrin and Matteo Arnaldi square off. Yosuke Watanuki and China’s own Juncheng Shang are also hoping to reach the round of 64.
Alexei Popyrin vs. Matteo Arnaldi
It may not be considered a blockbuster by anyone outside of hardcore tennis circles, but Popyrin vs. Arnaldi is arguably the most intriguing matchup of the entire opening round at the Rolex Shanghai Masters. Both players are enjoying their best years on tour. Popyrin is 20-17 on the main tour with a title in Umag and he comes in at 45th in the rankings after recently peaking at a career high of 40th. Arnaldi has earned all 16 of his lifetime ATP wins this season, including three at the U.S. Open (lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the round of 16).
Popyrin caught fire a couple of months ago in Umag, where he beat Arnaldi 6-7(2), 7-5, 6-3 on his way to the trophy. Since then, however, it is the 48th-ranked Italian who has enjoyed a significant edge in form. After making his U.S. Open run, Arnaldi compiled a 2-0 Davis Cup record and then advanced to the Beijing second round as a qualifier this past week. Popyrin lost right away at the U.S. Open (to Dominic Stricker) and in Astana (to Sebastian Korda); another first-round exit is likely in the cards at this Masters 1000 event.
Pick: Arnaldi in 3
Yosuke Watanuki vs. (WC) Juncheng Shang
This should also be a good one between two entertaining players. Watanuki just won their most recent encounter 6-4, 6-2 a month ago, and that was also in Shanghai (in the semifinals of a Challenger tournament). However, he has not taken the court since then whereas Shang has already played twice at the ATP level on the Asian swing. The 18-year-old from China did not win a match in either Zhuhai or Beijing, but he pushed Mackenzie McDonald to three sets at the former and did the same against Yoshihito Nishioka at the latter.
Shang will also take confidence from the fact that he defeated Watanuki in their first meeting–7-6(1), 7-6(3) in 2023 Indian Wells qualifying. Watanuki is an extremely aggressive player who can blow seriously hot and cold, and following a month of rest he may not be in peak form. Shang should have a good chance to avenge his recent loss in front of the home crowd.
Pick: Shang in 3
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