Rome R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kyrgios, Berdych vs. Goffin

Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios are set for a highly-anticipated showdown at the Rome Masters on Thursday. A quarterfinal spot will also be at stake when Tomas Berdych goes up against David Goffin.

Nick Kyrgios vs. (5) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Kyrgios will be squaring off for the second time in their careers when they meet again in round three of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Thursday. Their only previous encounter came two years ago on the grass courts of Wimbledon, where Kyrgios pulled off a 7-6(5), 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3 upset. The 21-year-old has become a even bigger star since then, both for the right and the wrong reasons. On  the court, Kyrgios is up to 20th in the rankings and he is an outstanding 21-6 this season. So far in Rome he has defeated Salvatore Caruso and No. 10 seed Milos Raonic in straight sets.

Nadal is looking to bounce back from a semifinal loss in Madrid to Andy Murray and he took a step in that direction by cruising past Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-3, 6-3 on Wednesday night. The fifth-ranked Spaniard is bidding for a third title on this clay-court swing, having previously triumphed at his old stomping grounds in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. Nadal is 48-4 lifetime at the Rome Masters with seven titles, so it is safe to say he will much prefer facing Kyrgios in this setting than at the All-England Club. Unless the underdog turns in an unbelievable serving performance, Nadal is likely to break him down in a clay-court baseline battle.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(8) Tomas Berdych vs. (12) David Goffin

Berdych and Goffin will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers on Thursday. Both of their previous encounters have gone the way of Berdych, who prevailed 7-5, 6-3, 6-3 at the 2012 U.S. Open and 6-3, 6-4 earlier this season indoors in Marseille. Now much more confident, Goffin should also benefit from playing on a slower surface. Since he last ran into Berdych, the 13th-ranked Belgian owns back-to-back semifinal performances in Indian Wells and Miami. Goffin lost right away in Madrid to Lucas Pouille in a third-set tiebreaker, but so far in Rome he has taken out Leonardo Mayer and Jack Sock.
Goffin
Following a first-round bye as the last of the top eight seeds, Berdych blew past Albert Ramos-Vinolas 6-3, 6-4 on Tuesday. The eighth-ranked Czech is a relatively modest 19-9 for his 2016 campaign and he has not progressed further than the quarterfinals in any of his last five events. Berdych will have a tougher time hitting through Goffin in these conditions than he previously did on fast indoor hard courts, and the 12th seed’s defense and consistency may be too much for an opponent who has been unable to find the range with his high-risk tennis of late.

Pick: Goffin in 3

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49 Comments on Rome R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kyrgios, Berdych vs. Goffin

      • that was the talk among nole fans on tennis-x a day ago…i didn’t say he was for sure but that there could be a problem..
        obviously if he gets bagelled by bellucci i’m going to wonder if that’s at least partly the reason

        • Amy,

          Hey, not bad from a guy who supposedly plays crap tennis! LOL! Novak has over an 8,000 point lead in the rankings.

          I totally understand why you might think Novak had a physical problem. Makes perfect sense to me! Also, reading the discussion on tennis-x would have made you concerned. I don’t read that site anymore. 🙂

          Novak seems fine, just somewhat frustrated at times in this match.

  1. Kyrgios:

    “My hip was not great before the match either, but I knew my game plan and I knew I was going to try and play aggressive,” said Kyrgios.

    “It’s bothering me but it didn’t really bother me too much at all.”

    “I mean, he just .. couple points here and there, it was tight and he just played well in the big points. That’s pretty much it.

    Despite the defeat, Kyrgios said he was pleased with the way he performed against the man who has won this title seven times.

    “Obviously he’s the greatest of all time on this surface,” he said.

    “For me, just when I was a bit younger .. we were always talking about playing Rafa on clay, and I always thought I’d get absolutely destroyed against him.

    “Then to play him and compete out there, deep in the third, [a] three-hour match, it feels pretty good.”

  2. Yeah, Rafa would destroy him if they played on clay back in 2013 or even 2014. Kygrios can now compete with an’aged’ Rafa on clay and to him that’s something to be happy about.

    What’s with Rafa these days, so poor in BP conversion, and its not that his opponent(s) was/were saving them with big first serves; there were second serves too that Rafa failed to capitalize. Hope Rafa wins tomorrow regardless of who his opponent is.

    • no reason why this shouldn’t be a reason for him to be happy about!Rafa was playing pretty well and it was a tough match.

      I saw the highlights and it was clear that rafa was having trouble handling Nick’s serve. Rafa was consistently landing his second serve returns INSIDE the service box and still was able to defend and counterpunch well enough to win more points. It was the inadequate length on serve returns that made life so tough. Rafa moved really well in the match and forehand was quite animated. Backhand was generally solid.

      • I remember that Rafa couldn’t read Nik’s serve in the match at Wimbledon. He said as much after the match. So I am not surprised that he would have some trouble in this match. Rafa had to rely on his groundstrokes to compensate for weak ROS.

        • NNY you said it, its Rafa’s weak ROS.

          I mean its not only Kygrios serve, against Murray, Rafa also had the same problem (BP conversion). Rafa’s ROS ability has certainly deteriorated, together with his serve.

      • It seems that Rafa hasnt realised that he’s not as quick and as powerful now and he’s still returning from so far behind the baseline ( even on second serve), no wonder his returns are so short that his opponents pounce on them.

    • Poor bp conversion is simple anxiety.

      Nothing new.

      And Rafa’s lead up to 2014 FO wasn’t special. Today’s nick would have had a better chance then than this improved Rafa.

      • Of course Rafa was bad in 2014 lead up to the FO, I mean 2014 FO Rafa would be enough to deal with Kgyrios. The 2013 Rafa – certainly anywhere on clay in Europe!

        You people talked as if Rafa hadnt met any big server on clay in his life! The confident Rafa would have no problem against anyone on clay, big server or not. The current Rafa? He’s still busy rebuilding confidence and clearing doubts in his head!

        • He wasn’t that confident leading up to 2014 FO. This Kyrgios would have had a better shot of beating him then.

          • Yeah at the lead up but not at the FO. Kygrios is more fortunate to have met Rafa after Rafa’s heydays on clay; the older batch(es) of players are/were not so fortunate.

            I would say Rafa has to fight harder to win on clay these days. I dont understand why Rafa always makes the mistake of starting slow, loses the first set, loosen up and play freely the second to give chase and win, and then engages in a tussle in the third. He’s expending energy unnecessarily. Why not just comes out all guns blazing and gets the upperhand instead?

            Its frustrating watching him does that all the time, when clearly his more offensive game (as in the second set) would clearly suffice to get him the first set too.

        • Luckystar (AT 12:49 AM),
          —The confident Rafa would have no problem against anyone on clay, big server or not. —
          ===
          .
          He had a problem with Isner at the 2011 FO.

          • Luckystar ( AT 5:44 AM),

            In your comments, you are comparing Rafa “these days” to Rafa “in the old days.”

          • Old days when he was confident, as in 2005 – 2010. I’m not sure 2011 can be considered ‘old days’ as he was clearly at the start of his coming down from his peak and clearly he wasn’t confident! I thought that’s pretty obvious, that he wasnt confident at all in 2011??

      • You guys also need to realize that it was not that vintage Rafa was winning all his matches with consummate ease!

        Rafa vs Davydenko Rome 2007 SF marathon , anyone? Rafa vs Hewitt Hamburg 2007???

        Before you say they were a diff type of players, let me also remind you of the battle Rafa had with Gulbis in Rome 2010!

        So, even vintage Rafa has had his difficult moments in Masters 1000…

        His ROS is weak and Nick’s serve is nasty!

        And, nick is far from being just a serve bot! He is the real deal…

        • So? Rafa won in the end, didnt he? Davy, Hewitt, Gulbis – did they trouble Rafa consistently? No, only one match each!

          If anything, its Djoko who’s the real deal. Who pushed Rafa to the limit on clay in 2009 after which Rafa’s knees were ‘damaged’ so much so that he suffered his first loss at the FO? Its Djoko, and Djoko in 2008 Hamburg was already a handful for Rafa during Rafa’s heydays on clay (though Rafa being the king of clay would still win majority of their clay matches should peak Rafa meet peak Djoko on clay, IMO). Djoko since 2011 was consistently troubling Rafa on clay, beating him six times already.

          Like I said, Kygrios has the luxury of not playing a Rafa during his peak on clay. Kygrios is just not consistent throughout a match. Well, he may peak one day and perhaps reaches Djoko’s level on clay one day, then we can compare him vs peak Rafa on clay!

          • You just keep missing the point on this one and go into other details. The point is that there is no guarantee vinrage Rafa would have totall destroyed Kyrgios because even the peak Rafa had his difficult moments!

            You say he beat Davy and Hewitt so didn’t he beat Kyrgios too?!

            It is a known fact that peak Rafa was more consistent and less vulnerable. Plus, I don’t know how we can totally ignore the fact that the patterns of play to preasure Rafa have become more and more known to players and we see players going beyond their limits and flattening out strokes and going for broke. It has always been the case but there’s been more clarity for players and I am glad Rafa’s reaponding… adjustment to his serving position is an example.

            I agree with the pnts regarding Djokovic but I am not sure why you brought them up… have nothingto do with what I said.

            So, the point is, if Rafa plays a close match against someone, doesn’t necessarilt mean it happebed coz he is a worse player now..even peak Rafa had his tough moments so it can happen. Once it starts happening again and again, then yeah it becomes a major concern.

          • VR, you’re the one missing the point. The way to trouble or to beat Rafa is/was already known a long time ago; however, how many did beat him on clay in the past? Its because Rafa was so quick and powerful, moved so well on clay, that its almost impossible to beat him on clay in his peak, unless he had an off day – Rome 2008, Madrid final 2009 for eg.

            Why he always came through in the end, not losing any match on clay in 2006, 2010, only one match in 2007, 2008, and having 93% success rate on clay in the past? I said he would destroy this Kygrios because 1)Kygrios is inconsistent; 2) tends to go for broke when he gets impatient; 3) vintage Rafa would get even more balls back at Kygrios.

            Kygrios unlike Davy who took the ball early, or Gulbis who threw drop shots after drop shots at Rafa during that Rome 2010 SF, just served big and hit hard and engaged in groundstroke exchanges with Rafa, trying to overpower Rafa. If the current Rafa almost beat Kygrios in straight sets if not for his own nerve, the vintage Rafa would dispatch this Kygrios in 6-3, 6-3 probably.

          • You try refuting points that I am not even making …haha…

            I know very well why rafa was lesa vulnerable.. and, the point about evolution of the game is just ONE of many reasons! I just said you can’t totally ignore! If you have doubts, watch how more players used to stay away from his forehand more as they were scared of it.

            I am going to try to keep this short and make my point clear. The ONLY point I made was that if Rafa plays a tough match despite playing well, it is NOT only reflecting his deteriorated game but a combination of his decline and the opponent playing really well because peak Rafa also had his tough moments!

            He ended up beating Nick so let’s not forget that.Also, he had 15 brk pts so could may well have made it 6-4 6-2 type scoreline!

            The close match yesterday was more about the mental aspect (not converting BPs) rather than his lost speed and power! He was still playing well enough to clean Nick up in straight sets!

            Anyway, Rafole is almost here. Fingers crossed

          • Nah VR is right. This kyrgios was not lucky to play this Rafa because this kyrgios lost.

            Rafa was as good in 2011 as he was in 2010.

            He won the FO and made two other slam finals. He’s only made three slam finals one other time in 2013!!!

            No, 2011 Rafa WAS vintage Rafa but Djokovic had one of the two best years in tennis history of any player along with 2015.

          • Nailed it perfectly VR. Summed it up nicely with:
            “The close match yesterday was more about the mental aspect (not converting BPs) rather than his lost speed and power”

            I could not agree more. Well said sir.

  3. 3rd match tomorrow! Rafa Vs Novak on clay! Thank God it is during the day. The weather forecast is sunny too!

  4. It seems Novak will take on Belluci …. can Nadal beat Novak is a big question .
    Novak is the best player right now …..let us face this fact.He knows how to beat Nadal .
    but if Rafa wins it will be cool chilly and a big celebration

    • Yes! I second that! I want Rafa to just go out there and give it his best!

      We will be here cheering him on tomorrow!

      Best of luck, Rafa!

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