Rome R3 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Thiem, Nishikori vs. Gasquet

An intriguing third-round schedule on Thursday in Rome includes a second career meeting between Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem. Kei Nishikori and Richard Gasquet are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

(3) Roger Federer vs. (13) Dominic Thiem

Despite a lingering back issue and rumors of a potential withdrawal, Federer survived his opening match at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Wednesday afternoon. The 34-year-old Swiss has pulled out from four tournaments already this season, including at last week’s Madrid Masters, but he managed to take the court this time around and got past 19-year-old German Alexander Zverev 6-3, 7-5. Federer, who insists he has no chance of capturing his first-ever title in Rome and is even casting doubt on his status for the third round, is a modest 32-15 lifetime at this tournament.

Up next for the world No. 2 on Thursday is Zverev’s doubles partner, Thiem. Their only previous encounter came earlier in 2016 on the hard courts of Brisbane, where Federer cruised through a semifinal showdown 6-1, 6-4. Thiem has only improved since then and he owns more match victories this year than everyone except Novak Djokovic. The 15th-ranked Austrian has cooled off slightly since capturing titles in Buenos Aires and Acapulco, but he is on track in Rome with defeats of Alexandr Dolgopolov and Joao Sousa. Even with his opponent at 100 percent, this would be a good opportunity for Thiem on his favorite surface and on Federer’s worst. If Federer is laboring at all physically, and it sounds like that may be the case, the 13th seed will likely be too tough.

Pick: Thiem in 3

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(11) Richard Gasquet vs. (6) Kei Nishikori

Nishikori and Gasquet will be squaring off for the eighth time in their careers and for the second time in as many weeks when they meet again on Thursday. Gasquet is dominating the head-to-head series 6-1, but Nishikori finally got on the scoreboard with a recent 6-4, 7-5 victory in Madrid. Japan’s top player eventually reached the semifinals before falling to Novak Djokovic 6-3, 7-6(4). Making a quick turnaround in Rome, Nishikori struggled physically against Viktor Troicki on Tuesday but managed to prevail 5-7, 6-2, 6-3.
Nishikori 1
Gasquet punched his ticket to the last 16 with routine wins over veterans Julien Benneteau and Andreas Seppi. The 12th-ranked Frenchman is a stellar 15-5 for the year with a title in Montpellier and consecutive fourth-round performances in Indian Wells and Miami. Everything about this one sets up nicely for Gasquet to restore order to his past dominance of Nishikori. The world No. 6 may be less than 100 percent and slower conditions in Rome should benefit Gasquet by giving him the time he needs to set up for strokes that are much less condensed than those of Nishikori.

Pick: Gasquet in 3

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26 Comments on Rome R3 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Thiem, Nishikori vs. Gasquet

  1. Federer and Nishi… Think he will have to much firepower, even on the slower surfaces… day off should have done his body wonders

  2. I remember saying how Thiem is lacking will or enthusiasm to finish off his matches…he is young and playing well but there is something in his game that indicates he might surrender to the vulnerable Fed…hope he doesn’t though…hope he plays a decent match…if it goes to 3 Fed will lose…so I expect Fed in 2 🙂

    Nishi did not look good out there, probably fatigued…but Gasquet is not at Nishi’s level so I expect him to lose in 2…

  3. Fed gives the break back…lousy service game from the Swiss just when everyone thought he would consolidate easily…missed all first serves I think…I suspect Fed is suffering from “anxiety disorder”… 😉

  4. Fed failing to convert break points, makes uncharacteristic errors in key moments…this is called “not trusting my own game” syndrome…Rafa can write a book about it…

  5. One error and one beautiful point by Thiem and the tie-break is gone…Thiem wins the first set…better play by Thiem in the tie-break though…

  6. Very proud of Dominic Thiem. It was time for that win, imo. Lovely Dominic did it ?
    Commiserations to any Fed fans reading. Respect to Roger Federer.

  7. So Fed did lose to Thiem. I hope to see that match on a replay later on today.

    The tennis channel is showing Nishi/gasquet now. Nishi is destroying Gasquet.

  8. Beating Fed is not a small thing even though the old fox was wounded. I expect Thiem to use this confidence boost and win in 3!

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