The women don’t play in Monte-Carlo, so the Mutua Madrid Open marks the first of two clay-court Masters 1000 tournaments, which was preceded by a WTA 500 in Stuttgart. Elena Rybakina will be looking to make it two titles in as many weeks and conditions in Madrid should be good for her game, but she could be challenged by the usual suspects such as No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek and defending champion Aryna Sabalenka.
Here are my best bets for the women’s 2024 Mutua Madrid Open.
Aryna Sabalenka (+650)
Sabalenka may not be at her very best on clay, but it is nonetheless no surprise at all to see what is an illustrious history in Madrid. Fast conditions at high altitude are great for Sabalenka’s game, and she has capitalized on them in the form of two titles (2021, 2023). There is no reason why the second-ranked Belarusian can’t win another one. Sabalenka has not been in peak form since triumphing at the Australian Open a few months ago, but she will be well rested to give it another go in Madrid after losing to Marketa Vondrousova in the Stuttgart quarterfinals.
Marketa Vondrousova (+3600)
Speaking of Vondrousova, Madrid is another event that should set up well for her following a semifinal showing in Stuttgart. Clay is the seventh-ranked Czech’s favorite surface and it’s obvious from last year’s results at Wimbledon (title) and the U.S. Open (quarterfinals) that she also likes quick conditions. Madrid presents the combination of the two, so she has every reason do well at this tournament even though she has never previously made any noise in the Spanish capital. Vondrousova is playing well and has a relatively favorable draw on the opposite side from Swiatek. She should like her chances.
Naomi Osaka (+6600)
At some point you have to think Osaka is going to power her way to a title from pretty much out of nowhere. When you can still get her at extremely long odds to win tournaments, it’s an opportunity worth taking. The four-time Grand Slam champion’s comeback following the birth of her first child has been up and down but unspectacular on the whole. She has suffered three first-round exits in seven events during the 2024 campaign but advanced to the quarterfinals in Doha, the third round in Indian Wells, and the third round in Miami. Like the case with Sabalenka, Madrid conditions should be ideal for Osaka even if clay isn’t her favorite.
who ya got?
Ricky
Your input is much appreciated.
I’m not sure that going to the WTA race ranking means that much at this point yet. Going into the live race ranking, Iga at #1, closely followed by Ryakina, Sabalenka, and Collins.
Live Rankings has Coco at #2. Osaka could come out anytime; I expect it!
I already picked my brackets, but I’m not sure about anything. I will give Sabalenka a closer look.
I cant not pick Saba . I think the longer tournament with days off suits her , and apart from her two titles here (both of which I picked ;)she had a great run at the French .
Rybakina is the obvious banana skin but its hard to keep up the winning streak.
Collins has a shot but its not the US with crowd support this time.
Ah, that’s sweet about Saba, Big Al. It is tempting for me to pick her b/c you do make sense. Rybakina has recently been more successful during these months after AO. Elena and Iga are tied for now. W:L at 26/4. Saba is behind her rivals; a win here would help her confidence.
We shall soon see.
There is no need to boost Saba’s confidence, but I understand why she is favored in Madrid.
I’ve gone for Rybakina but Big Al is very persuasive about Sabs, also like Cocoa’s chances. I’ve got three hours……
In the end I have Iga beating Saba in the final. Now onto the mens
Really? More chance at RG, yes, but you said Madrid favours big hitters?
Yes, but its still clay and Im hedging bets. I still think Saba is the best player for here , but she maybe not in the best form right now.
I remember we had same conversation at the AO, when I didnt pick her to win, just a finalist , since she lost easily to Rybakina earlier and happy to be wrong again.
Getting the Chinese players straight has become difficult. If you noticed, there are (2) X. Wang in the draw: One is Xiyu, and the other is Xinyu. This attempt to suss out who is who from China started last fall. But I made a new list while picking Stuttgart.
This effort will NOT help me win a WTA bracket, but I do it out of curiosity, with my hero, Li Na, in mind. Here are my notes pre-Madrid.
China #1 Qinwen Zhang (ofc) rank #7. She is the star at age 20!
China #2 Yue Yuan rank #36. Age 25 rank rising
China #3 Xinyu Wang rank #41 age 23 rank rising
China #4 Xiyu Wang rank #53 age 23 rank rising
#5 Lin Zhu rank #56 age 30 rank dropping
#6 Yafan Wang rank #67 age29 rank dropping
Two players with almost identical first names! Crikey! Makes picking almost impossible!
Ricky, I am sure you are crunched for time, but you could have responded to me regarding the Saba article that was moved to the archives.
And if you have time the one I wrote today? While I was watching the Cristea and Kuermetova matches? Do you still have that one?
I can’t post on Twitter freely because of stuff whatever robot, human, or bot
reader is editing. Elon Musk’s rules are meant to be broken! Can’t stand Twitter anymore.
Thanks.
Really, Ricky Dimon? Page 3 in the archives makes me sad.
There is more going on in the ATP with Rafa winning. I get that.
But the WTA has been hot for a long time now. I’m sure you are busy writing. I try to read you wherever you are. I’ll give you that.
I’ll keep hunting down the Sab page and be grateful.
I did have a few things to say about WTA in Madrid. It wasn’t about tracking the Chinese players…but I can’t recall now.
disastrous loss for Coco
Yep, tough loss for Gauff. Saba nearly lost to Collins.
Iga nearly lost to BHM, and Ryba had a close call vs. Putintseva.
It’s great to see Madison make the semi. The surprise is that Mirra Andreeva is going one step better than last year and is going up against the same player! Sabs is vulnerable this year but I think she got the wake-up call vs. Collins.
My girl, Iga, is in the Final!
Sorry, Madison, I love you too. Good job in Madrid!
I hope this second semi is good for 3 sets!
Was just saying I want to watch Ryba Saba!!! Should be good.
Saba is not at her 2023 best; otherwise, the match would be more even. As it is, Ryba is in great form and will win easily in two sets.
I’m watching the match now!
Sabs looks more like her old self when she was playing doubles with Timea Babos; loose abs, jiggling, and a bit paunchy.
Saba will likely shape up and be at her svelte best in time, but not in time for this clay season.
I say all of the above with tongue in cheek. She is not fat by any standard. Saba can turn the match around like she did against Collins. There is still time. She has to win this 2nd set.
But Rybak will need to help by faltering and losing the focus she had in the first set.
Oh Elizabeth, even with “tongue in cheek” please don’t write that. Women have more than enough “body shaming.”
Welcome Amy. Good to “see” you.
I apologize, Margot. I’m very sorry.
And thank you for telling me the way my comment was offensive.
We’re good, Elizabeth. x
Woot, Rybak fans! She got the break and will serve for the match.
Saba did have the crowd on their feet; she knew how to get them on her side.
Terrible nervous serving from Elina. She blew her chance to win in 2 sets.
Elina will serve to make this a tie-break.
Oops. Set 3 coming. Here I was, thinking Ryabakina had this.
Saba showing more confidence now than when the match started.
Just saw the scoreline! Last time I looked Ryba was cruising to victory. Think she may lose now.
Elina is serving behind in this set. Knowing she had this match in the second set, it can’t be easy for her.
Saba is not breezing through hwe service games. But she’s able to hold at 5-4.
It’s a nail-biter for Rybakina’s coach.
Elina is not giving up 5-5.
Both players want a shot at Iga. It’s a good fight. Elina holds at 5-5
Saba makes it 6-5, with much hard work back and forth at deuce.
Okay, Elina will serve to get this final set to a tie-break. She has a chance left.
Wow, Elina makes it; tie-break coming.
amy, you are still awake!
It’s a proper WTA SF. I hope Iga is going to see what’s coming!
It looks like Saba has this, but Elina is not giving up.
Congrats, Saba fans!
She was impressive.
Good night amy, very good to see you. xo
Good to see you too Elizabeth!!😀
Was the match as much about Ryba losing it as Saba winning?
Reckon Iga would rather play Saba than Ryba.